How the Algeria-Morocco Military Rivalry Became a Great Power Battleground
Beyond energy and trade, the Iran crisis is intensifying the defense angle of North Africa's greatest competition
KEY FACTS
WHAT HAPPENED? The Iran crisis is pushing countries worldwide to increase defense spending, including Algeria and Morocco
WHY IT MATTERS? Algeria and Morocco already have a military competition and the Iran crisis is deepening that struggle
WHAT’S NEXT? As the Gulf war continues and energy markets remain volatile, both countries are likely to engage in increased defense spending
Across the desert dunes of the Maghreb, two countries—Algeria and Morocco—navigate a rising competition. Their enduring dispute over Western Sahara seems to be entering a new chapter: The ongoing Iran crisis is heightening the importance of both energy and maritime trade for Europe, expanding their territorial dispute into new waters. As the trade competition deepens, it’ll inevitably bleed into the military struggle between the two, as well.
In 2020, when the Western Sahara ceasefire collapsed, Algeria allocated $9.11 billion to defense compared to Morocco’s $5.38 billion. By 2024, Algerian spending had exploded to $21.8 billion, nearly 8% of GDP, while Morocco held steady at $5.52 billion. The spending ratio, once relatively balanced, now stands at nearly 4:1.
But spending reveals only part of the picture. Morocco’s steady defense investments mask deepening military integration with the West: The US and France supply cutting-edge aerial technology, while normalization with Israel has advanced to joint defense systems development, per a military agreement signed this January. Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports emerged earlier this year of Algeria acquiring Russian Su-57 stealth fighters, deepening its Eastern orientation.
Geography as Destiny
The 2020s have been transformative for Algerian military investment: From 2014 to 2024, Algiers poured $128.37 billion into defense, nearly triple Morocco’s $47.44 billion during the same period. The most striking figure: a 100.88% year-over-year spending increase in 2023 alone.
What’s driving this surge? Consider Algeria’s geography: to the west, the Western Sahara dispute; to the east, chaotic Libya; to the south, insurgencies in Mali and Niger threatening spillover. When Algeria shot down a Malian drone last April, it revealed just how fragile its borders have become, translating into strengthening of its military apparatus.
While Rabat did boost spending following the 2020 ceasefire collapse—jumping from $4.83 billion to $5.38 billion in 2021, a 44% baseline increase—its investment philosophy emphasizes controlled growth over shock spending.
Again, geography explains much of this divergence. Morocco faces fewer immediate threats along its borders, allowing for measured, long-term procurement cycles. Even at its 2024 peak, defense spending represented just 3.52% of GDP, less than half of Algeria’s proportion.
The year 2022 proved pivotal for both nations, though for reasons beyond their rivalry: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent global energy prices soaring and pushed European powers to court North African gas suppliers. Both Morocco and Algeria, particularly Algiers, suddenly found themselves with greater market leverage, and with it, greater reason to maintain military readiness as international competition for influence intensified.
Eastern Guns vs Western Systems
More revealing though than spending levels are procurement patterns. Algeria’s military remains overwhelmingly oriented toward Eastern suppliers: 61% of arms imports come from Russia, another 15% from China. Approximately 413 of Algeria’s active aircraft originated from the Soviet Union, a legacy relationship that Moscow continues to cultivate with advanced systems like the Su-57.
Morocco, by contrast, has built its defense architecture firmly within the Western orbit. The US supplies 59% of its arms imports, France another 26%. Both countries dominate Morocco’s aircraft weaponry pipeline. Israel has likewise emerged as a growing important partner, providing 3.7% of Moroccan arms imports. At least 51% of Rabat’s defense missiles now come from Israeli sources, according to DW.
The Road Ahead
As the Iran crisis continues, the Algeria-Morocco rivalry has long transcended its regional origins. The 4:1 spending gap, the divergent alliance structures, and the competing procurement philosophies represent more than a bilateral dispute; they reflect two fundamentally different visions of security and global alignment playing out in a region that increasingly matters to energy markets. And as those markets spiral, the threat of military outbreak anywhere in the world heightens, too, pushing countries across the world—including Algeria and Morocco—to fortify their first lines of defense.