Ever since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the EU has been racing to secure new, reliable oil and gas supply chains. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February, when the US-Iran war began, is only deepening Europe’s energy crisis.
Shipping activity through the Hormuz has dropped over 90%, driving cumulative crude oil losses past 1 billion barrels by August. The crunch is driving up the cost of what little oil Europe still gets: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s address on April 13 confirmed that the EU’s fossil fuel import bill surged by over €22 billion without yielding a single additional unit of energy; von der Leyen also warned that supply disruptions were likely to persist even after any eventual ceasefire.
As the US and Iran continue to climb an escalatory ladder with no ceasefire in sight, and as Russia and Ukraine step up attacks on each other’s key export facilities, it’s clear that both Russian and Gulf energy remain off the table for European leaders.
What’s been a complete economic reckoning for Europe has become a lucrative revenue stream for North Africa, where two rival mega-projects are reshaping energy trade.
Two Pipelines, One Race
Algeria has emerged as a key winner of the Iran war, with southern European countries such as Spain and Italy turning to it for gas. That win is fueling one of Algiers’ biggest infrastructure projects: the Trans-Saharan Gas pipeline (TSGP).
A 4,128-kilometer pipeline, the long-standing proposal aims to connect West African upstream gas reserves directly to Southern European markets. Beginning in Warri, Nigeria, the TSGP passes through Niger before reaching the Hassi R’Mel gas hub in Algeria, where existing subsea pipelines carry that gas onward to Southern Europe.
On June 4, Algeria, Nigeria, and Niger convened in Algiers to establish a fast-tracked development roadmap: Algeria began physical construction on its 1,210 km northern section, with Niger set to follow in early 2027. Nigeria’s section is reportedly 60-70% complete.
Just across the Maghreb, another key pipeline is taking shape, in ironically, a country that is a net oil importer. The African Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP), also known as the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP), offers a competing maritime and overland route to deliver West African gas to Europe by bypassing the Sahel entirely.
Extending up to 7,000 km, the pipeline traverses 13 coastal nations, beginning in Nigeria and reaching northern Morocco, where gas connects to Europe via the Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline.
With a design capacity of 30 to 35 BCM per year, the AAGP will cost $25 to $26 billion, roughly double the TSGP.
Just a month after the TSGP’s breakthrough, the AAGP notched its own: an Intergovernmental Agreement was signed in Sierra Leone by the members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), formally endorsing the project’s regulatory framework. Final capital allocations, however, remain subject to syndicated loans.
Everyone Wants In
For Europe, the two pipelines—and North Africa’s wider energy potential—are too good to ignore.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni conducted high-level state visits to Algeria and Libya in March to secure long-term energy partnerships under Italy’s Mattei Plan, a €5.5 billion state-backed investment strategy for Africa. She returned to Libya in May to secure commitments to expand gas production.
Egypt and Libya, meanwhile, have opened talks on a joint $1 billion oil pipeline linking the two countries, delivering at least 1 million barrels of Libyan crude to Egyptian Mediterranean refineries. Analyst Cyril Widdershoven has called the project a “game-changer”, a sign of just how pivotal North Africa’s pipeline infrastructure has become to global energy trade, and likely the reason Europe and Gulf states have become leading financial backers of the continent’s energy rush.
While more time, development, and investment will be needed to realize this potential, the TSGP and AAGP represent a new frontier in Mediterranean energy trade. Libya and Egypt’s own pipeline push reflects this wider, accelerating trend. For Europe, it means building a decade-long bridge to survive its next energy crisis.
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