Iran Tensions Are Back Up While Morocco and South Africa Come to Europe and America's Rescue
Insights Dispatch - April 20, 2026
Welcome to the Monday edition of Insights Dispatch, our flagship brief overviewing the three latest geopolitical & market developments connecting the Middle East & Africa to the world.
IRAN: Tensions Are Up and Oil Prices With Them
WHAT HAPPENED?
The US attacked and seized an Iranian cargo ship traversing the Strait of Hormuz. The seizure was on the basis that the ship had violated the American blockade of Hormuz. In response, Iran has vowed retaliation in response “soon.” Crude oil prices have surged by close to 5% in response.
WHY IT MATTERS?
The seizure marks a significant uptick in tensions between the US and Iran as Pakistan aims to negotiate a lasting ceasefire to the conflict. While President Donald Trump has confirmed that the US will send delegations to Islamabad for further peace talks, Iran has ruled out any additional discussions.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Iran is unlikely to engage in additional discussions as the week unfolds, leaving both tensions and oil prices elevated.
MOROCCO: Europe’s New Energy Savior
WHAT HAPPENED?
Morocco and Nigeria are taking steps to sign an intergovernmental agreement which will finalize development plans for the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP), a $27 million project which will transport 30 billion cubic meters of oil across 13 different countries.
WHY IT MATTERS?
Europe’s energy outlook has been severely worsened by the Gulf crisis; the NMGP creates an alternative supplier for the EU to turn to while also providing Northwest African countries a new revenue stream. The pipeline also hedges against the Algeria-Niger pipeline, heightening the Algeria-Morocco rivalry.
WHAT’S NEXT?
As Morocco and Nigeria finalize the agreement, several European buyers–most notably Spain–will line up to ensure their stake in this oil project.
SOUTH AFRICA: America’s Critical Minerals Champion
WHAT HAPPENED?
The US is advancing a $50 million investment in South Africa’s Phalaborwa Rare Earths Project. Developed by the Rainbow Rare Earths in collaboration with the US Development Finance Corporation, the project will extract rare earths from two huge dunes in 2028 over the course of 16 years. The dunes are 35 million tons of phosphogypsum and contain rare earths such as neodymium and praseodymium.
WHY IT MATTERS?
The advancement marks a significant American push to secure critical minerals access in Africa, a sector long dominated by China. It also points to a major economic collaboration point between the US and South Africa, which have experienced strained relations since Trump took office.
WHAT’S NEXT?
China still maintains a close economic partnership with South Africa and could likely respond in kind with its own deal, suggesting that the race for critical minerals in Southern Africa is just getting started.
This reporting may be cited with attribution to Oasis Media Collective. For licensing, republication, or extended use, contact here.