Why Dubai Chocolate Could Get a Lot More Expensive

Inside the cocoa crisis driving up chocolate prices worldwide.

My most recent trip to the African continent was in Côte d’Ivoire. Between the busy roads, dazzling night sky, and energetic music that gripped everyday life, one thing stuck out to me: just how little sun the largest city, Abidjan, was getting.

Gray clouds and heavy rain were a constant throughout my weeklong trip, from the moment I landed until I took off.

For me, it was a small downside to an otherwise stellar trip. For farmers across the country, though, it’s been a nightmare.

Cocoa Under Pressure

A report from Reuters in early June detailed the adoption of increased premiums on new export contracts by the Abidjan-based Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC), in an effort to slow down cocoa sales.

The reason: weather. The rainy season has made harvesting cocoa more difficult than ever, with global broker XTB reporting preliminary estimates that the country’s cocoa exports could fall by roughly 0.4 million tonnes beginning this September, compared to the current season.

Compounding those fears is El Niño, the weather phenomenon pushing Pacific Ocean temperatures up and sparking ripple effects worldwide. In the case of Côte d’Ivoire, the effect is expected to be drier and hotter weather, further derailing harvesting efforts.

The end result: limited supply facing skyrocketing cocoa demand. That clash is now showing up in the markets.