UAE’s OPEC Withdrawal, Iran Crisis Spikes Pistachio and Dubai Chocolate Prices, Iraq’s New Oil Deal with China
Insights Dispatch - April 29, 2026
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Insights Dispatch, our flagship brief overviewing the three latest geopolitical & market developments connecting the Middle East & Africa to the world.
UAE: Exiting OPEC
WHAT HAPPENED?
The UAE officially announced on Tuesday that it will be withdrawing from both OPEC and OPEC+, after nearly five decades. The withdrawal will become effective May 1. The UAE cited its own national interests as a key driver for the decision. Abu Dhabi stated that it would continue to bring “additional production” of oil matched with market demand and conditions.
WHY IT MATTERS?
As the world’s seventh largest oil exporter, the UAE has been a key player in global energy markets, currently facing their deepest crisis due to the Iran conflict. The UAE’s withdrawal is likely to spark short-term uncertainty among energy investors worldwide, already heightened due to the Strait of Hormuz’s closure.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Expect official statements from the UAE and OPEC regarding how the withdrawal may shape both Abu Dhabi’s energy policy and OPEC as an organization.
IRAN: War Disrupts Pistachio Supplies, Soaring Prices Upward
WHAT HAPPENED?
A report from the Financial Times noted pistachio prices having reached an all-time high of $4.57 a pound in March, the highest since 2018. The ongoing war in Iran threatens to push prices upward, given that Iran is a leading exporter of pistachio.
WHY IT MATTERS?
Pistachio has seen significant demand worldwide in part due to the Dubai chocolate trend, chocolate bars filled with pistachio cream. Pistachio is also a key input for other highly demanded foods, such as ice cream. The continuation of the Iran war threatens to cut supplies for pistachio and in turn raise prices for end consumers.
WHAT’S NEXT?
While importers are turning to suppliers such as those in the US, Iranian pistachios are noted for their high concentration of oil, significantly impacting the taste. With the summer time approaching, during which demand for pistachio-related products typically rise, prices are likely to follow suit.
IRAQ: $5 Billion Oil Pipeline Project with China
WHAT HAPPENED?
Iraq announced it will be awarding a $5 billion oil pipeline project to a consortium of Chinese organizations. Known as the Basra-Haditha pipeline, the project was initially agreed to as part of the wider oil-for-projects agreement signed between Baghdad and Beijing in 2019.
WHY IT MATTERS?
Prior to the Hormuz’s closure, Iraq was exporting close to 3.4 million barrels daily via the waterway. With its closure, a key pillar of the country’s economy is under threat, prompting Baghdad to explore alternative energy supply chains.
WHAT’S NEXT?
The Basra-Haditha pipeline will carry crude to Turkey, Syria, and Jordan. Officials and investors in these neighboring states will pay close attention to new developments in the agreement given their desire for alternative energy sources.
This reporting may be cited with attribution to Oasis Media Collective. For licensing, republication, or extended use, contact here.
Does the UAE’s withdraw have anything to do with its worsening relations with Saudi Arabia?