Tanzania Challenges Kenya Oil Proposal, Mozambique's New Mining Reforms, South Africa's Shipping Finance Struggles
Insights Dispatch - May 6, 2026
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Insights Dispatch, our flagship brief overviewing the three latest developments at the intersection of markets, policy, and power across the Middle East & Africa
TANZANIA: President Hassan Rebukes Ruto Over Refinery Plans
WHAT HAPPENED?
During a diplomatic visit by Kenyan President William Ruto, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan publicly rebuked his proposal for a joint oil refinery. The concept, first proposed on April 28 at a mining conference in Nairobi, would see an East African equivalent of Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery built in the Tanzanian port city of Tanga, with backing from Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote.
WHY IT MATTERS?
The proposal of an East African oil refinery has received significant political backing across the region, including in Tanzania, where MPs have expressed support for it. However, without coordination with Hassan, the proposal remains a concept rather than an executed vision, leaving East Africa reliant on energy imports.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Ruto spent much of his visit clarifying the proposal. If it receives Hassan’s blessing, steps may be launched between the governments of Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda to build the refinery in collaboration with Dangote.
MOZAMBIQUE: New Mining Reforms Launch 15% Government Stake
WHAT HAPPENED?
Mozambique has drafted an addendum to the country’s current mining law, in which the national mining company, ENM, will hold at least a 15% stake in all projects. Licensing rules are also to be updated, with mining concessions to be extended up to 25 years and 10% of mining revenues to be directed to a dedicated fund.
WHY IT MATTERS?
Mozambique is rich with minerals, such as coal and graphite. Consequently, Maputo is aiming to leverage such wealth to increase revenues, part of a wider trend of resource nationalism in the continent.
WHAT’S NEXT?
The draft revision is set to be reviewed and debated in Parliament on May 7. If executed, current mining agreements may be updated to reflect such changes.
SOUTH AFRICA: Transshipment Share Falls by 10% Despite Traffic Surge
WHAT HAPPENED?
In an interview with CNBC Africa, Jacob van Rensburg of the Southern African Association of Freight Forwarders revealed that the country’s transshipment share has fallen from roughly 23-25% to 13-14%.
WHY IT MATTERS?
The Iran crisis has caused shipping companies to divert away from the Gulf and southward off the coast of South Africa, leading many to speculate that Pretoria would reap new revenues from the explosion in traffic. However, South Africa has lost significant numbers of marine fuel supply, with monthly bunker volumes declining from 130,000 tonnes last year to 80,000 tonnes. The drop has shifted business to other African ports, such as Port Louis in Mauritius, where fuel sales rose.
WHAT’S NEXT?
For South Africa to seize greater revenues from higher traffic, new port infrastructure will be required in order to sustain such a higher number of cargo ships and increased bunker volumes.
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