Oil Falls and Minerals Rise Amid Sudan War Spillover

Insights Dispatch – March 23 2026

Welcome to the Monday edition of Insights Dispatch, our flagship morning brief overviewing the three latest geopolitical & market developments connecting Africa to the world.

SOUTH AFRICA: Coal Resurgence During Global Disruption

WHAT HAPPENED?

South African mining company Exxaro Resources projects its coal exports to rise 10-12% as global energy markets tighten, with coal prices surging amid disrupted Middle East oil flows. Countries seeking alternatives to crude are increasingly turning to Southern Africa’s coal.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Countries seeking alternatives to crude are increasingly turning to Southern Africa’s coal. Effectively, South Africa is becoming a fallback energy supplier, stepping in to fill short-term global energy gaps. The result is an elevation of the region’s strategic importance in the energy market.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Expect continued coal export growth, temporary boosts in revenue, and short-term international reliance, while energy transition efforts pause under crisis conditions.

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ZAMBIA: The New Copper Giant?

WHAT HAPPENED?

KoBold Metals is advancing a multi-billion-dollar copper project in Zambia, aiming for ~300,000 tons a year output by the early 2030s. The project is part of Zambia’s plan to triple copper production by 2031.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Zambia’s copper is critical for EVs and global energy transition supply chains. Western investors are backing the project to reduce dependence on China, positioning Southern Africa as a strategic supplier of essential minerals.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Expect additional investment in Zambian copper and construction of supporting infrastructure. With energy resources influx, minerals such as copper will be seen as a hedge resource, further pushing capital inflows into Zambia.

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SUDAN: A War Not Restrained By Borders

WHAT HAPPENED?

Clashes between Sudanese forces and paramilitaries along the Sudan–Chad border have killed at least 17 civilians and injured over 120 last Wednesday, according to Associated Press. In response, Chad has closed its border to prevent spillover, highlighting the widening humanitarian and security impact of Sudan’s civil war.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The fighting shows how Sudan’s conflict is destabilizing neighboring countries and threatening regional security. Border closures impede trade, aid delivery, and refugee movement, intensifying humanitarian pressure on already vulnerable populations.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With much of the world gripped by the conflict in the Middle East, the Sudan war is likely to intensify as both actors aim to make strategic progress amid less global pressure to engage in diplomatic discussions.

This reporting may be cited with attribution to Oasis Media Collective. For licensing, republication, or extended use, contact here.