Dangote Calls for Kenyan Refinery, Solar Energy Expansion in Rwanda, Saudi Aramco and UAE GMS Quarterly Profit Highs and Lows
Insights Dispatch - May 13, 2026
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Insights Dispatch, our flagship brief of the three latest developments at the intersection of markets, policy, and power across the Gulf & Africa
KENYA: Aliko Dangote Eyes Oil Refinery Instead of Tanzania
WHAT HAPPENED?
Nigerian businessman Aliko Dangote revealed his intent to build a regional oil refinery for East Africa in Kenya rather than Tanzania, as originally stated. Dangote cited Mombasa’s deeper port and Kenya’s larger economy, although analysts also speculate that Tanzanian President Samia Hassan’s frustration with being unconsulted also contributed to the shift.
WHY IT MATTERS?
The Iran crisis has stifled oil supplies to East Africa, spurring countries toward rationing and highlighting the need for resource self-sufficiency, something Nigeria has gained via its Dangote Refinery. Other countries are now hoping to do the same, a commercial opportunity Dangote is watching.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Dangote stated the final decision would be “in the hands” of Kenyan President William Ruto. If confirmed, land, East African financing, and protection from cheap fuel dumping from states such as Russia would be required.
RWANDA: Renewvia Aims for $750 Million Expansion
WHAT HAPPENED?
American solar energy company, Renewvia Energy Corporation, is aiming to expand into Rwanda, Uganda, Ethiopia, and the DRC to install new mini-grids at a cost of roughly $750 million.
WHY IT MATTERS?
With a population of over 1 billion, roughly 600 million Sub-Saharan Africans lack access to electricity, over 80% of the world’s unelectrified population. Renewable energy initiatives are thus vital for connecting the continent’s growing youth population to the grid.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Renewvia is still finalizing East African financing before pushing forward with its expansion.
SAUDI ARABIA: Aramco Sees Record Revenue Jump
WHAT HAPPENED?
Saudi Aramco reported a net profit increase of 73% in Q1, rising from SAR120 billion ($32 billion) in Q4 2025, the company’s highest quarterly profit since 2023.
WHY IT MATTERS?
The resurgence comes after eleven straight quarters of year-on-year profit declines. While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz raised fears, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline–carrying 7 million barrels per day to Red Sea ports–has allowed Aramco to sustain operations.
WHAT’S NEXT?
If a U.S.-Iran truce reopens the Hormuz, Aramco’s revenue gains are likely to accelerate.
UAE: Gulf Marine Services Witnesses Quarterly Profit Slump
WHAT HAPPENED?
Gulf Marine Services PLC reported a 24% drop in Q1 profit, falling from $25.6 million to $19.5 million, linked to the evacuation of four vessels due to the Iran war.
WHY IT MATTERS?
The drop highlights the lasting commercial repercussions of the Iran crisis. As tensions ease, GMS is likely to reassess its risk management strategy.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Despite the decline, GMS anticipates 2026 adjusted core profit of $105-$115 million. The company acquired a mid-class vessel in January, since redeployed to Europe and operational in April, expanding its footprint outside the Middle East.
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