Algeria Becomes Europe’s Energy Savior, China Beats America in Minerals, South Africa Holds Rates
Insights Dispatch — March 27, 2026
Welcome to the Friday edition of Insights Dispatch, our flagship morning brief overviewing the three latest geopolitical & market developments connecting Africa to the world.
ALGERIA: Italy Pushes for North African Gas Imports
WHAT HAPPENED?
Italy is moving to increase gas imports from Algeria to offset disrupted LNG flows from the Gulf. Algeria, which already supplies ~30% of Italy’s gas, is negotiating expanded volumes and new upstream projects. Libya and other regional producers are accelerating output amid elevated prices, positioning North Africa as a key alternative energy supplier for Europe.
WHY IT MATTERS?
North Africa is emerging as a frontline alternative to Gulf energy flows, giving the region pricing and geopolitical leverage, while Europe accelerates diversification away from the Hormuz chokepoint. Algeria in particular is positioned well given its existing pipelines and oil stability in contrast to Libya.
WHAT’S NEXT?
As the Iran crisis continues to derail oil markets, more European powers are likely to forge closer energy ties with Algeria and Africa more broadly, accelerating a strategic shift in energy supply chains toward the Mediterranean.
DRC: China Makes Mineral Inroads While America is Distracted
WHAT HAPPENED?
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) signed a new mining cooperation deal with China, deepening Beijing’s control over cobalt, copper, and lithium. The agreement includes duty-free exports to China, expanded Chinese investment and geological data sharing, and pushes for local processing inside the DRC.
WHY IT MATTERS?
The DRC holds ~70% of global cobalt and major copper, coltan, and lithium reserves. Consequently, the country has become a key battleground in the global race for critical minerals. China’s deal strengthens its grip hold on relevant supply chains.
WHAT’S NEXT?
The U.S. will likely take both diplomatic and commercial countermeasures to deepen its foothold in the DRC’s mineral landscape. However, such efforts are unlikely to emerge in the coming months, given that Washington’s foreign policy priority is Iran, creating a window of opportunity for Beijing to expand its footprint even more.
SOUTH AFRICA: Sustaining Interest Rates for Survival
WHAT HAPPENED?
The South African Reserve Bank held its policy interest rate at 6.75%, opting against cuts as global energy prices, driven by the ongoing Iran crisis, are expected to push domestic inflation higher. Fuel inflation is projected above 18% in Q2, with headline inflation approaching 4%.
WHY IT MATTERS?
Maintaining rates amid rising energy costs pressures the rand, equities, and corporate borrowing. Investors now anticipate a longer tight money period in South Africa, affecting domestic and regional capital flows and market confidence.
WHAT’S NEXT?
With the Iran crisis continuing, additional fiscal pressures will culminate on South Africa. Despite being Africa’s strongest economy and most impressive emerging market, such stress points are likely to deter foreign investment in South Africa.
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