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International attention is increasingly fixed on Sudan, where chaos is ensuing in the city of El Obeid.

The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary group, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), now in its fourth year, has increasingly expanded to the southern and eastern domains of the nation. Since the conflict’s beginning in 2023, over 150,000 deaths have been reported according to The New York Times, while the country has faced the collapse of both its economy and medical system.

A key turning point in the war occurred last October, when the RSF successfully expelled the SAF from the strategic position of El Fasher. The massacre that ensued saw over 6,000 deaths according to an OHCHR report, although some estimates place the figures far higher. Global concern is rising that a similar outcome may play out once more in El Obeid.

As such, this guide will explain the importance of El Obeid in the struggle between the SAF and RSF.

What is El Obeid?

El Obeid is the capital of North Kordofan, one of the three Kordofan states among Sudan’s eighteen provinces.

Sitting about 360 kilometers southwest of the capital of Khartoum, the city is home to an estimated population of 563,400 people, according to World Population Review. The city is also home to over 100,000 displaced people. A major SAF stronghold, El Obeid is home to the military’s 5th Infantry Division. An SAF airbase and its joint operations room with Egypt are also based there.

The city has since come under heavy drone fire from the RSF.

Why is El Obeid strategic?

Hosting key logistics for the SAF, El Obeid is an integral command hub of the military. Expelling the SAF from El Obeid not only provides the RSF with access to such logistics, but would be a pivotal morale hit for the military.

El Obeid is also a critical crossroads city. It lies at the intersection of highways linking central Sudan to Darfur and other southern states, and is home to the only functioning rail spur leading into western Sudan. That has made the city a critical transit point for the transfer of weapons among SAF units traversing central, western, and southern Sudan.

The city additionally carries economic weight. El Obeid is home to not only a large market of gum arabic–a strategic commodity used in everyday food products and beverages–but also a pipeline carrying South Sudanese oil to Port Sudan, the headquarters of the SAF.

What will victory in El Obeid mean?

An SAF victory cements its control over the critical supply chains carrying both weapons and commodities that will be vital to the larger war and Sudan’s economy. It would also act as a significant morale boost, particularly given the legacy of the El Fasher defeat.

For the RSF, successfully expelling the SAF from El Obeid would provide it greater control over the wider Kordofan region. Additionally, it would cement the paramilitary’s grip over supply routes not only to transit weapons across the nation, but also commodities that are pillars of Sudan’s economy. Given El Obeid’s proximity to Khartoum, the city could also act as a launching pad for an RSF siege of the capital, which was regained by the military in late 2024.

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For years, the relationship between Riyadh and Rabat ran on monarchical goodwill and shared positions at the Arab League. That has changed. Since 2023, Saudi capital has moved into Morocco’s power sector at a scale that turns diplomatic friendship into industrial dependency, and the vehicle for that shift is green energy.

In March 2025, Morocco’s government approved six green hydrogen and green ammonia projects worth a combined $32.5 billion under its Offre Maroc (Morocco Offer) framework, a national strategy to cultivate the country’s green energy sector. As part of that March 2025 approval, Saudi utility giant ACWA Power was pre-selected to lead several of the projects launched. By February 2026, that commitment had moved from paper to land: binding agreements allocated up to 30,000 hectares per project out of a one-million-hectare national reserve set aside for the buildout.

Noteworthy is that ACWA Power is far from a small energy player in Saudi dynamics. Owned 44.2% by the country’s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), ACWA has become a critical conduit for Saudi investments in Morocco. Through ACWA, PIF has become Rabat’s largest foreign private power developer, with a portfolio that includes the four solar plants in Ouarzazate and the Khalladi wind farm under the Noor Solar Complex. These assets were built through Build-Own-Operate-Transfer contracts worth well over $1.5 billion combined.

Why Green Energy?

Morocco’s geographic positioning doesn’t just lend itself to World Cup hosting. Sitting 14 kilometers from Spain across the Strait of Gibraltar, two subsea cables are already carrying 1400 MW from Morocco to the European grid, with a third under construction. Between limited oil supply and driving heatwaves, Europe is increasingly turning to North Africa as an energy lifeline, with Morocco in particular shaping to be the go-to renewable energy provider. Helping to cultivate Rabat’s green energy sector enables Riyadh to bolster its own ties with Europe, even if indirectly.

Renewable energy is nothing more than a dream without phosphate, and by a large margin, Morocco has the world’s highest phosphate reserves. Holding approximately 50 billion metric tons, the North African country accounts for roughly 70% of the global supply.

Morocco hopes to tap into that supply in order to fuel higher production levels, which Saudi Arabia is more than happy to support: Morocco’s phosphate giant, OCP Group, needs vast volumes of green ammonia to decarbonize fertilizer production at Jorf Lasfar. Saudi-backed hydrogen projects lock in that industrial customer before a single molecule is exported, a hedge against the possibility that European offtake deals for green hydrogen prove slower to materialize than hoped.

Converging with Morocco’s own interests are those of Saudi Arabia. Renewable projects live and die on financing costs, and Saudi Arabia’s access to cheap sovereign liquidity—sukuk issuances, syndicated Islamic financing—lowers the cost of building solar and wind in a market that would otherwise pay a steeper risk premium. And as much of the world increasingly turns to green energy as globe energy markets remain volatile, multimillion dollar investments in Morocco’s renewable landscape converts Saudi oil revenue into an insurance policy against declining fossil fuel demand.

Chiefly, none of this is separable from geopolitics. Saudi Arabia has consistently backed Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara at the UN and Arab League; notably, some of ACWA’s solar capacity sits inside the disputed territory itself, at Laayoune and Boujdour. Capital deployment there functions as a vote of commercial confidence layered on top of diplomatic support.

The Fine Print

The relationship isn’t friction-free. NOORo III, ACWA’s flagship solar tower, sat offline for 14 months after a molten salt tank leak in early 2024, costing an estimated $45-47 million in lost revenue and over $51 million in repairs. Falling photovoltaic (PV) costs—down to $0.03-0.05/kWh versus $0.15-0.18/kWh for older CSP technology—have already pushed Morocco to redesign future tenders around PV-plus-battery storage instead. And the unresolved liquidation of the Saudi-owned SAMIR refinery, dormant since 2015 with over $4.4 billion in defaulted debt, remains a cautionary footnote regulators haven’t forgotten.

Still, the trajectory is clear. What began as royal solidarity has hardened into an energy partnership with real land, real megawatts, and a $32.5 billion pipeline behind it, one where Saudi Arabia isn’t just investing in Morocco’s transition, but underwriting a piece of its own.

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My most recent trip to the African continent was in Côte d’Ivoire. Between the busy roads, dazzling night sky, and energetic music that gripped everyday life, one thing stuck out to me: just how little sun the largest city, Abidjan, was getting.

Gray clouds and heavy rain were a constant throughout my weeklong trip, from the moment I landed until I took off.

For me, it was a small downside to an otherwise stellar trip. For farmers across the country, though, it’s been a nightmare.

Cocoa Under Pressure

A report from Reuters in early June detailed the adoption of increased premiums on new export contracts by the Abidjan-based Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC), in an effort to slow down cocoa sales.

The reason: weather. The rainy season has made harvesting cocoa more difficult than ever, with global broker XTB reporting preliminary estimates that the country’s cocoa exports could fall by roughly 0.4 million tonnes beginning this September, compared to the current season.

Compounding those fears is El Niño, the weather phenomenon pushing Pacific Ocean temperatures up and sparking ripple effects worldwide. In the case of Côte d’Ivoire, the effect is expected to be drier and hotter weather, further derailing harvesting efforts.

The end result: limited supply facing skyrocketing cocoa demand. That clash is now showing up in the markets.

This year has been a rollercoaster ride for the commodity, with ICE cocoa futures having climbed back above $5,000 per tonne earlier this month, according to XTB. The climb comes off a similar rally in February.

That hit is being felt by the companies most reliant on cocoa. Swiss chocolatier Lindt has seen its shares fall by 29% this past year, while Nestlé’s shares dropped 7% last Thursday, prompted by lower sales tied to higher cocoa prices.

When Cocoa Sneezes, Chocolate Catches a Cold

What happens with cocoa doesn’t just stay with cocoa. Everybody’s favorite sweet treat, chocolate, is feeling the pressure of the volatility, too.

Accounting for roughly 40% of the global supply, Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest cocoa exporter, with the commodity at the core of the country’s agricultural sector.

Those cocoa beans, shipped to both Europe and Asia, are the backbone of chocolate production, serving as the foundational base and creating the core flavor, texture, and identity. Simply put, without cocoa, chocolate wouldn’t exist, leaving our sweet tooth craving something else.

All of which is why chocolate was inevitably going to feel the pressure of the ongoing cocoa crisis. ABC News reported a 14.4% rise in chocolate prices at the start of 2026 compared to the same time last year. Similarly, The Times reported that UK chocolate prices soared 27% between 2023 and 2025. It’s part of the reason Nestlé, according to Times, has reduced the concentration of cocoa butter in its products.

Analysts are pointing to weather difficulties and harvest delays in Côte d’Ivoire and the wider West African region as the root cause. Throw in climate change into the picture, it may not be a crisis that ends anytime soon.

Dubai Chocolate: The Canary in the Coal Mine

Arguably the chocolate product most exposed to this is Dubai chocolate, bars filled with both kunafa and pistachio cream. Since going viral online in 2023, demand for Dubai chocolate has soared, and with it, pistachio prices. Compartes Chocolatier reports that in just under a year, U.S. pistachio prices jumped from $7.65 a pound to over $10.30, driven in part by the craze over Dubai chocolate.

Given that demand, Dubai chocolate is likely to feel the pressure of the heightening cocoa crisis stemming from Côte d’Ivoire on top of an existing squeeze. According to Financial Times, the war in Iran has already disrupted pistachio trade, given that Iran exports roughly a fifth of the world’s supply. Côte d’Ivoire’s own difficulties are set to compound that.

For all of us chocolate lovers with a sweet tooth: be prepared to drop more bank for your favorite late-night dessert.

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The end of 2021 cast a shadow over relations between the United Arab Emirates and Nigeria. The UAE’s General Civil Aviation Authority restricted Nigeria’s sole international carrier, Air Peace, to a single weekly slot at Sharjah International Airport. Nigeria’s Civil Aviation Authority retaliated, slashing Emirates Airlines’ winter schedule from 21 weekly flights to one. Emirates suspended all passenger flights to Nigeria outright.

The spat didn’t stay in the skies. Nigeria’s central bank blocked airlines from repatriating ticket revenue in American dollars, trapping $85 million of Emirates’ earnings by July 2022. By October of that year, Abu Dhabi had imposed a visa ban on Nigerian nationals.

Flash forward to 2026, and that shadow has been illuminated.

Nigeria has drawn the first tranche of a $5 billion financing arrangement from First Abu Dhabi Bank, Bloomberg reported. Days after Dangote Group founder Aliko Dangote met with ADNOC Group CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber in Abu Dhabi, the Dangote Refinery purchased two cargoes of Emirati crude, according to S&P Global. And in an interview with BusinessDay, UAE Minister of Foreign Trade Thani Al Zeyoudi called Nigeria a cornerstone of Emirati investment in Africa, pointing to a record $5 billion in bilateral trade in 2025.

The Abuja-Abu Dhabi relationship went from frozen to foundational in record time. As the UAE’s African ambitions expand beyond its traditional foothold in the northeast of the continent, Nigeria is emerging as the linchpin of its push westward.

A Rocky Start, A Rapid Thaw

The UAE and Nigeria established diplomatic relations in 1982, but it wasn’t until 2009, after the UAE opened an embassy in Abuja, that ties began to deepen in earnest.

The real turning point came in January 2016, when then-Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari traveled to Abu Dhabi for a state visit. The two countries signed six foundational treaties covering everything from double taxation to extradition, a framework meant to stimulate capital flows between the two governments.

The Air Peace-Emirates standoff threatened to undo years of that groundwork. Instead, what followed was the emergence of something bigger: a West Africa-Gulf trade corridor, with Nigeria at the helm.

Bilateral trade has nearly tripled since 2019, climbing from $1.45 billion to $4.8 billion in 2025, according to BusinessDay. A 2024 breakdown by the Observatory of Economic Complexity tells a deeper story: UAE exports to Nigeria totaled $1.49 billion—nearly $1 billion of it refined petroleum—while Nigeria’s exports to the UAE reached just $148 million, largely raw petroleum gas. Nigeria, in other words, is still exporting the raw input and buying back the refined product.

That’s starting to change. The 700-kilometer Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, linking major economic zones along Nigeria’s Atlantic coast, secured $1.126 billion in financing in December 2025, $626 million of which was underwritten by First Abu Dhabi Bank. In April, Nigeria struck a separate partnership with DP World and AD Ports Group to launch a new national shipping line, a bid to boost its maritime trade.

Betting on a Younger, Bigger Nigeria

Nigeria’s appeal to Abu Dhabi isn’t just about today’s trade figures, it’s about who’s about to enter the workforce. As Africa’s most populous country, with a median age of just 18.1 years according to the World Economic Forum, Nigeria is heading into a demographic boom that’s expected to accelerate growth in gas, mining, and maritime industries—exactly the sectors the UAE has staked its African strategy on.

Abu Dhabi’s investments on the continent have historically clustered in the north and east. West Africa’s mineral wealth and proximity to European markets are changing that calculus, and Nigeria is positioning itself as the anchor of the UAE’s pivot west.

The next phase of the relationship looks set to run through renewable energy. Emirati state-owned Masdar has named Nigeria a target market in its Africa-wide clean energy push, part of a plan to deploy 20,000 megawatts of renewable capacity across the continent over the next twelve years.

And as for who’s brokering the deals on the ground: expect Dangote Group to keep doing it. Dangote himself has emerged as the UAE’s go-to local partner, and with his refinery now buying Emirati crude directly, it’s a fair bet he won’t be the last Nigerian businessman making the trip to Abu Dhabi.

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