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Back in 2022, it felt like you couldn’t walk one step outside without hearing Rema’s “Calm Down.” Originally released in February of that year, it saw a resurgence when a remix featuring Selena Gomez dropped in August. Its presence was undeniable: it spent longer on the Billboard Hot 100 than any African song before it.

“Calm Down” was just one part of the wider Afrobeats tide sweeping the music world. A genre streamed over 13 billion times on Spotify that year, its biggest faces were selling out Wembley, headlining Coachella, and commanding performance fees north of a million dollars. Universal Music Group’s (UMG) majority stake in Lagos-based record label Mavin Global—valued at up to $200 million—made it feel like the genre’s momentum was unstoppable.

Yet recent numbers are beginning to paint a more bleak horizon. Between US charts for African artists declining and cancelled global tours by leading acts like Wizkid, it’s left analysts and fans alike asking: is Afrobeats’ era of fame over?

The Rise

Between 2021 and 2025, Afrobeats recorded a 5,022% increase in streams on Spotify alone, while Nigerian artists alone accumulated 30.3 billion streams and 1.6 billion listening hours on the platform in 2025.

Chart penetration in Western markets told a similar story: Wizkid and Tems’ “Essence” became the first Nigerian pop record to enter the Billboard Hot 100 in 2021, eventually peaking at number nine. The genre had become a category, not a curiosity.

The money followed. Warner Music Group (WMG) acquired pan-African distributor Africori in early 2025, while Sony had already launched Sony Music West Africa in 2016. The Big Three of music were planting flags wherever the streams went.

But the revenue engine sustaining the boom wasn’t streaming. Burna Boy’s I Told Them world tour generated $30.5 million across 22 shows, including $6.1 million from a single night at London Stadium. Wizkid’s Made in Lagos tour grossed over $25 million. Live performance was the business model, more than the digital playlists.

The reason is structural. Under Spotify’s payout system, the per-stream rate in Nigeria averages $0.0011, compared to $0.0039 in the US and $0.0044 in the UK. A subscription in Lagos costs ₦1,600 a month, about $1.17 at current rates. The math is punishing.

The Naira’s collapse has sharpened this asymmetry. The currency fell from roughly ₦460 to the dollar in early 2023 to between ₦1,600 and ₦1,830 by 2026. For established artists earning in dollars, that collapse multiplied their domestic purchasing power. For independent acts on local sponsorships and Naira-denominated fees, it has been quietly catastrophic, concentrating the genre’s financial rewards in a small pool of artists already established enough to earn in dollars.

The Fall?

At a recent listening party, Afrobeats icon Omah Lay made a stark claim: “Afrobeats is declining overseas, that’s a fact. The sound from 2020 to 2024 isn’t what it is today.”

The numbers reflect it. Global Afrobeats listener growth on Spotify came in at 22% in 2025, a far cry from the triple-digit expansion of earlier years. In 2025, Sony withdrew its entire catalog from Boomplay, the dominant African streaming platform, citing millions in unpaid royalties.

Meanwhile, an estimated $286 million in recorded music revenue goes uncollected in Nigeria and Kenya alone annually, the result of compositions never registered with global performance rights organizations. Coupled with cancelled global tours from the genre’s leading artists, it felt like Afrobeats was heading toward a downturn.

Yet beyond the Western markets showing fatigue, the genre’s growth elsewhere remains explosive. Spotify documented a 4,530% stream increase in Indonesia and 1,650% in India from 2020 to 2025. Moreover, Amapiano’s fusion with Afrobeats has opened markets in Latin America and Southeast Asia the original wave never reached.

What looks like decline in the Billboard charts may simply be the end of a crossover story. The genre has cemented itself as a permanent player on the global stage, rather than a passing moment.

From Lagos to Dubai

For most of Afrobeats’ expansion, the Gulf has been an audience rather than infrastructure. That’s changing.

Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority, Abu Dhabi’s festival investments, and Dubai’s emergence as a touring hub are becoming magnets for music talents and investments. It’s the same playbook the Gulf ran on sport: acquiring the infrastructure while at its cusp.

The timing is not coincidental. With Western markets saturating and African domestic revenues structurally constrained, Gulf markets represent one of the few remaining high-spend frontiers. The genre that began in Lagos, crossed over through London, and built its commercial model in North American arenas may find its next chapter shaped and increasingly owned in Riyadh and Dubai. That, more than any chart position, is the story worth watching.

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The upcoming 2026 World Cup will mark a historic first for the African continent. 10 countries—Algeria, Cabo Verde, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast), Egypt, Ghana, Morocco, Senegal, South Africa, and Tunisia—will be making their way to North America to participate in the tournament, the largest African contingent in the tournament’s history.

Eyes everywhere are focused on the continent. While no African country has ever won a World Cup, Morocco made history in the 2022 edition when it reached the semifinals and finished in fourth place, a continental first. Morocco’s achievement was the culmination of nearly 90 years of African football slowly and persistently forcing its way onto the world stage.

This piece traces that journey through numbers, records, and moments.

From the Margins

Africa’s first appearance at a World Cup came in 1934, when Egypt became the continent’s sole representative.

What many saw as the start of an exciting new chapter turned out to be short-lived. The Confederation of African Football (CAF) boycotted the 1966 World Cup entirely after FIFA refused to guarantee Africa a dedicated qualifying spot; in a protest that was shaped by politics as much as football, the move cost African countries a World Cup appearance, the next of which wouldn’t be until 1970, in which FIFA guaranteed a spot for the continent that was eventually filled by Morocco, the Kingdom’s first appearance in the tournament.

It wouldn’t be until 1982 when two African teams regularly appeared at the same tournament. If the Hungry 30s was Africa’s rise, the Roaring 80s was the continent’s consolidation in the tournament, showcasing its talent on the global stage.

Countries such as Cameroon and Nigeria built reputations as formidable squads, while Morocco defied expectations in 1986 when it came out as the victor in a group with England, Poland, and Portugal.

Italia 90 served to be the turning point for the continent in the World Cup. Roger Milla, a former Cameroon player, was lured out of retirement at age 38 to the tournament, becoming a World Cup icon overnight. His four goals, iconic corner-flag celebrations, and Cameroon’s run to the quarterfinals, advancing past the likes of Argentina and Colombia, became a defining image of African football announcing itself to the world.

The Numbers Behind the Runs

While the early decades were defined by heavy group-stage exits, from 1998 onward, a tournament which saw five African participants, the continent’s collective win rate climbed steadily.

The 2002 World Cup stands as a high-water mark for continental performance: Senegal beat defending champion France in the opening match and eventually trailblazing to the quarter finals.

The 2022 tournament in Qatar began slowly for Africa. Four of the five participants—Cameroon, Ghana, Senegal, and Tunisia—were eliminated in the group stage. But Morocco’s run rewrote the continent’s story entirely. They kept clean sheets against Belgium, ended Spain on penalties, and beat a Cristiano Ronaldo-led Portugal to become the first African nation to reach the semifinals.

Their fourth-place finish put pressure on FIFA’s allocation decisions. For 2026, the result: 9 guaranteed African berths (up from 5), with a potential tenth through a play-off.

From the Past to the Future

The numbers tell a continental underdog story. From Egypt’s solitary debut in 1934, through the 1966 boycott, through Cameroon’s corner-flag celebrations and Ghana’s heartbreaking penalty miss in 2010, to Morocco’s extraordinary 2022 semifinal run–African football has earned its growing place on the world stage.

With ten now participating, the question isn’t whether African teams belong at the World Cup nor will it be if they perform well. The real question is whether one of them will finally win it.

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