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UAE’s Masdar Inks 25-Year Deal for 1,000 MW Wind Farm in Egypt

Abu Dhabi-headquartered Masdar, in consortium with Infinity Power and Hassan Allam Utilities, has formally signed a 25-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company to construct a landmark 1,000 MW (1 GW) wind power project in Ras Shokeir along the Red Sea.

Expected to power over 1.2 million Egyptian homes and reduce carbon emissions by 1.36 million tonnes annually, the development aligns with Egypt’s ambitious national target to scale its renewable energy mix to 45% by 2028, as part of the country’s wider energy push. The deal further cements Gulf state capital and infrastructure dominance across critical North African energy transitions.

Nigeria in talks with UAE to Boost Power Generation Capacity by 5,000 MW

Nigeria’s Ministry of Power has opened high-level negotiations with the United Arab Emirates to secure financing and technical expertise aimed at adding 5,000 MW to Nigeria’s power grid, with a primary focus on solar energy infrastructure.

With Nigeria’s total installed capacity sitting at 13,625 MW but delivering only 4,000 MW to consumers due to severe grid decay, the talks come amid sweeping sector reforms that decentralize power generation down to subnational state governments. The bilateral dialogue also highlights the deepening relationship between Nigeria and the UAE, as Abu Dhabi seeks to expand its African investment portfolio to the continent’s western region.

Saudi Arabia’s HUMAIN Launching $10 Billion Global VC Fund

HUMAIN, Saudi Arabia’s flagship artificial intelligence company launched last year in May, confirmed plans for a global venture capital fund. In an interview with Semafor, CEO Tareq Amin stated that the fund will host offices in Saudi Arabia, the U.S., UK, and France, with the aim of investing in AI companies on the condition that they utilize Saudi data centers or bring staff to the kingdom.

Riyadh has increasingly positioned itself as a leading backer of Africa’s startup ecosystem; in 2024, Dubai-based investment company, the Mara Group, launched a $250 million fund at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, targeting growth-stage African startups. The new HUMAIN VC fund will likely accelerate this push, and will be particularly attractive for Egyptian startups, given close geographic and cultural proximity between Cairo and Riyadh.

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Gulf Diesel Exports to Africa Fell by 200,000 Tonnes in August

Data from Kpler and Vortexa revealed that African countries are increasingly turning toward Asian nations, such as India, for oil, as the Iran war forces imports of Gulf oil to plummet. Data from LSEG and Kpler revealed that Middle East diesel exports to Africa fell from 800,000 to 600,000 tonnes in August. Most impacted by this was Saudi Arabia, which supplied 40% of the continent’s diesel in 2025.

East Africa remains particularly impacted, as countries in the Horn frequently turned to Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery, shipments from which fell to zero in August, according to Kpler. While such imports are likely to resume if an Iran ceasefire is secured, the long-lasting effects could see a shift in African oil import dynamics, increasing reliance on other regions and on building infrastructure within the continent to improve self-sufficiency, such as the Dangote Refinery.

India Revives Critical Minerals Discussions with Zambia

Officials from India’s Ministry of Mines confirmed that they had reopened discussions with Zambian counterparts on critical minerals cooperation. Previous talks earlier this year stalled over Indian mining rights for an area stretching 9,000 square kilometers. No further details were provided, but Khanij Bidesh India Ltd (KABIL), a joint venture company owned by the Indian government, is evaluating investment opportunities abroad, including in Africa.

If secured, the agreement could pave the way for deeper GCC-India mining cooperation in Africa, most notably in the case of the UAE, India’s largest economic partner in the Gulf. In July, an Indian consortium including KABIL signed a memorandum of understanding with UAE-based International Resources Holding (IRH) to collaborate on critical mineral exploration worldwide. India’s foray into Zambia could act as a milestone in this partnership, given that IRH holds a 51% stake in Zambia’s Mopani Copper Mines.

Germany Turns to Algeria for Alternative Energy Supply

German Minister of Foreign Affairs Johann Wadephul arrived in Algiers to discuss closer energy and investment collaboration between Germany and Algeria. In a press statement, Wadephul stated that Berlin was in need of energy diversification, and specifically looking for “long-term gas contracts.” Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory reports Germany’s gas storage to be at 53%, below the EU average of 65%, thus driving the need to turn to alternative energy supplies outside of the Gulf.

The move cements the growing European momentum to turn to North Africa—and Algeria specifically—for oil and gas. However, Algeria’s oil infrastructure is still developing to meet this surging European demand; Gulf investments, most notably from Saudi Arabia, will likely accelerate to support this push.

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Brent Crude Crosses $90 as U.S.-Iran Military Strikes Escalate

Brent crude surged past $90 a barrel after U.S. forces launched targeted strikes on Iranian rocket installations on Larak Island, prompting retaliatory missile attacks from Tehran against American bases in Jordan. The strikes mark the sharpest escalation in military hostilities along the Strait of Hormuz in a month, disrupting maritime traffic through a critical global energy choke point.

For global markets, businesses, and investors, the military flare-up reintroduces a heavy geopolitical risk premium into energy inputs, threatening to reignite corporate margin pressure and headline inflation. Sustained supply disruptions along Gulf trade routes threaten supply-chain stability, driving up maritime insurance premiums and freight rates across Africa and Europe while dampening global equity market sentiment.

Niger Mutiny Quelled by Russian Forces

Calm has returned to Niger’s capital following a brief 24-hour military mutiny against General Abdourahamane Tchiani’s ruling junta, which was ultimately quelled after Kremlin-backed Africa Corps forces intervened to bolster loyalist troops. The uprising highlights severe internal friction within Niger’s armed forces as the regime deepens its dependence on Russian security to maintain its grip on power following the complete withdrawal of Western allies.

For Gulf investors looking to West Africa, the incident signals heightened political instability and heightened operational risk across the Sahel region. The junta’s reliance on irregular foreign mercenaries rather than institutional military stability raises critical questions about sovereign risk, supply-chain continuity for regional mining assets, and the enforceability of existing commercial contracts under a volatile government.

Ramaphosa Bets on $90B Infrastructure Pipeline to Drive Growth

President Cyril Ramaphosa declared infrastructure development the cornerstone of South Africa’s economic recovery and regional trade strategy, urging faster execution of cross-border transport, energy, and digital networks. Addressing leaders at SIDSSA 2026, Ramaphosa detailed that the country’s strategic project portfolio has expanded to R1.67 trillion across 195 major projects, supported by enhanced coordination under Infrastructure South Africa to bridge project-financing gaps.

For Gulf investors, the announcement signals an expanding pipeline of bankable public-private partnerships (PPPs) in energy, logistics, and municipal utility sectors. This is particularly the case for the UAE, a longtime infrastructure partner to South Africa. However, long-term commercial upside hinges on government execution; addressing chronic project-preparation bottlenecks and municipal operational inefficiencies remains crucial to derisking capital deployment and achieving sustained economic integration across the SADC region.

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Aliko Dangote Offers 30% Stake to East Africa for Regional Oil Refinery

Aliko Dangote, Nigerian businessman and Africa’s richest individual, is kickstarting plans for an oil refinery in Lamu, Kenya. Mirroring his signature refinery in Nigeria, Dangote has offered East African countries a 30% equity stake in the $16 billion project, which aims to process 700,000 barrels per day.

The offer marks a significant milestone in East Africa’s efforts to become a net oil producer. For Gulf states investing in East Africa, it would also act as a strategic opportunity for deeper energy collaboration. The UAE in particular is likely to benefit, given both its record investments in East Africa and existing collaborative history with Dangote.

DRC, M23 chart out a path toward peace negotiations

Following five days of discussions in Switzerland, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group have released a joint statement pledging to negotiate toward “comprehensive peace” and “conflict resolution,” according to the BBC. Such negotiations would utilize the previous Doha Framework Agreement as a launch pad. The discussions were attended by the DRC, M23, Switzerland, the United States, Qatar, and the African Union Commission.

The statement reflects the rising likelihood of stability being achieved in the DRC’s mineral-rich regions, with the country being home to the highest reserves of critical minerals such as cobalt and copper. Gulf investors are keen to see such peace talks persevere to deter risk as part of their mineral gambit in Africa; Qatar is most potently poised, given its heavy involvement in the peace talks.

Ethiopia secures preliminary agreement for eurobond restructuring

An agreement in principle (AIP) was struck between the Ethiopian government and private investors over the restructuring of a $1 billion eurobond. Currently being reviewed by the Official Creditor Committee (OCC), the AIP includes a “New Money Warrant” that allows bondholders to buy into a future Ethiopian eurobond of up to $1 billion.

The AIP marks a significant step forward in Ethiopia’s wider debt restructuring and elevates monetary confidence in Addis Ababa’s investment landscape. This is particularly critical for the UAE, already a leading investor in Ethiopia and increasingly a close political ally of Addis Ababa.

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Saudi Arabia Pivots to Mediterranean for Oil Exports

Saudi Arabia has dramatically shifted its crude export strategy, rerouting millions of barrels through Egypt to bypass Houthi attacks in the southern Red Sea and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Under the new pivot, Saudi crude moves west via pipeline to Yanbu before being shipped to Egypt’s Ain Sukhna terminal and pumped through the SUMED pipeline to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean.

However, this critical workaround remains heavily exposed. Houthi militants have warned they will expand missile and drone strikes into the northern Red Sea, putting tankers en route to Egypt directly in the crosshairs. With SUMED acting as Saudi Arabia’s primary alternative export valve to Western and Asian markets, expanding threats toward Egyptian transit corridors risk creating severe bottlenecks and renewing global energy market volatility.

Qatari Diar Launches $30 Billion Mediterranean City in Egypt

Qatari Diar has officially kicked off construction on phase one of its $29.5 billion Alam Al Roum development, marking one of the largest foreign real estate investments in Egypt’s history.

Located near Marsa Matrouh on Egypt’s northwestern Mediterranean coast, the 20.58-square-kilometer project aims to transform the pristine coastline into a year-round integrated city. Phase one, backed by an initial $4.5 billion allocation will feature luxury residences, four hotels, a 50-vessel marina, and swimmable artificial lakes. Handover is scheduled for 2030.

The first phase expects to generate 30,000 local jobs, delivering a critical foreign capital injection for Cairo’s economy.

Egypt Targets 45% Renewable Energy Mix by 2028

Egypt has ramped up its clean energy ambitions, setting a target for renewable sources to supply 45% of the nation’s electricity generation by 2028.

Following high-level strategy meetings in New Alamein, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and senior ministers outlined plans to expand green capacity while deploying battery energy storage systems to stabilize the national grid. The sector has drawn roughly $99.6 billion in investments since 2014 to modernize energy infrastructure and establish Egypt as a regional power hub.

Crucial to the push is industrial localization. President Al-Sisi mandated expanding domestic manufacturing for electrical equipment and battery systems, alongside value-added processing for strategic resources like rare-earth elements. The initiative seeks to strengthen energy security, foster local industry, and lower reliance on foreign supply chains during Egypt’s green transition.

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Houthis Claim Drone Strike on Saudi Aramco’s Jizan Refinery

Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed a drone strike on Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refinery on Sunday, hours after Saudi authorities said firefighters had extinguished a blaze at the facility. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree called the strike “precise,” framing it as retaliation for Saudi drone incursions into northwest Yemen. Riyadh’s energy ministry confirmed the fire but did not disclose its cause, reporting no injuries. The refinery was also hit by the Houthis in July.

The attack follows the apparent collapse last month of a 2022 truce in Yemen’s civil war, with the Houthis declaring a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and striking tankers in the Red Sea. The escalation coincides with Iran’s ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Saudi Arabia to form a maritime pact consisting of both Middle Eastern and Northeast African countries.

Egypt to Award Seven Oil and Gas Blocks in Push for New Investment

Egypt is set to award seven oil and gas exploration blocks, aiming to attract $60-70 million in fresh investment, officials announced during a ministerial visit to the Al-Baraka field in Aswan. Samir Raslan of the South Valley Egyptian Petroleum Holding Company said six blocks in southern Egypt will likely go to Canada’s Mediterra and the state-run General Petroleum Company, while a seventh in the Red Sea is expected to be awarded to BP.

The move comes as part of Egypt’s wider push to become a net energy exporter once again. The ongoing crisis in the Red Sea, however, may spark investor uncertainty over Egypt’s energy developments located along the country’s eastern coast.

Sudan’s Official Gold Exports Match Full-Year 2025 Total in Just Six Months

Sudan’s official gold exports over the first half of 2026 matched the entire volume recorded for 2025, Minerals Minister Nour al-Dayem Taha announced Sunday, crediting new anti-smuggling measures. Speaking after meeting Prime Minister Kamel Idris, Taha said tighter controls are pushing more gold through formal banking channels.

The gains follow last week’s move by Sudan’s Security and Defence Council to establish dedicated courts for gold-smuggling cases and bar military and paramilitary forces from mining sites. The scale of past leakage is significant: Sudan produced 70 tons of gold last year, but only 14 tons were officially exported.

Such crackdowns occur amid rising Gulf investments in Sudan’s mining sector, with both Saudi Arabia and Qatar having announced gold-related partnerships with Sudan. Given the significant deposits of gold located along the country’s Red Sea coastline, the ongoing smuggling trend and Red Sea crisis elevates the risk calculus of such deals.

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Yemeni Houthis Ramp Up Attacks on Saudi Oil Tankers in Red Sea

While tensions in the Strait of Hormuz seemingly ease, hostilities in the Red Sea continue to rise. The Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis have increased their strikes on vessels traversing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait–through which roughly 5% of global energy passes–having struck both the NCC WAFA and Daisy, two Saudi Arabian-flagged oil tankers, according to the group’s spokesperson Yahya Sare’e on X.

The sustained tensions threaten to keep energy prices elevated, even if a long-term deal is secured over the Hormuz.

DP World Establishing $3 Billion Economic Zone in Kenya

Emirati logistics company DP World has announced a partnership with GulfCap Africa, a Kenya-based investment and development group. The partnership will see the two develop a special economic zone spanning 222 hectares in Kenya, dubbed the “Mombasa Industrial Park.” The project comes on the heels of the January 2025 agreement signed between the UAE and Kenya to deepen trade and investment.

The move strengthens the UAE’s growing investment pattern across Africa’s ports. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed both the UAE and Saudi Arabia to increase reliance on the Red Sea, paving the way for deeper economic relations with East African states, such as Kenya.

Kenya Looks to World Bank for $450 Million Emergency Loan to Counter Iran War Effects

Kenya is currently in negotiations with the World Bank over an emergency loan totaling $450 million. Dubbed the Contingent Emergency Response Project (CERP), the proposed fund aims to help cushion Kenya’s economy against multiple pressure points.

Chief among them are heightened energy prices amid the Iran war, given Nairobi’s status as a net oil importer. An additional concern is El Niño, set to cause higher rainfall and disrupt agricultural production, a key economic revenue stream for Kenya.

The financing is expected to be finalized and available by October.

Emirates NBD to Acquire HSBC Egypt’s Retail Business After 3% Net Profit Rise

Emirates NBD Egypt has agreed to acquire HSBC Bank Egypt’s retail banking business, including its branches, ATMs, customer base and relevant staff, pending regulatory approval and with financial terms undisclosed. Vice chairman and managing director of Emirates NBD, Hesham Abdulla Al Qassim, cited Emirates NBD’s confidence in the Egyptian market as a key driver in the acquisition.

The move is part of Emirates NBD’s broader global expansion following a 3% year-on-year increase in net profit in the first half of 2026. Emirates NBD has also recently acquired RBL Bank in India and submitted a revised bid for a stake in IDBI Bank, as it aims to strengthen its global market position.

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Saudi Arabia Launches Red Sea Coalition Amid Houthi Threats

Saudi Arabia has announced a new multinational maritime coalition aimed at securing the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Gulf of Aden, as Houthi attacks on shipping intensify following the collapse of a four-year truce. Riyadh will lead the effort from its capital, coordinating intelligence-sharing and joint naval operations among member states.

Membership spans across both the Middle East and Northeast Africa: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Yemen, Egypt, Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, and the Comoros. The alliance will also include international partners, such as Turkey, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

The coalition responds to mounting threats to a corridor carrying roughly 12% of global trade, including oil and LNG shipments. Disruptions have already pushed shippers toward the longer Cape of Good Hope route, hurting Suez Canal revenues and raising global shipping costs.

OPEC+ to raise crude oil output amid Iran war

OPEC+ confirmed on Sunday it will raise oil output by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September—a sixth straight monthly increase—but will pause further hikes in the fourth quarter, keeping around two million bpd of 2022 cuts in place.

Seven core producers—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman—approved the rise virtually, with Iraq’s prime minister pressing for a bigger quota to match capacity. The decision comes as the U.S.-Iran war hits an uneasy pause, with Washington halting strikes after both Iran and regional states pushed for a pause to the fighting.

Oil prices posted their biggest monthly gains since March in July, with Brent up 24% and WTI up 21%, as Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping add further pressure on global supply routes.

Oil Profits Ride Iran War High But Analysts Warn of Macro Trading

The U.S.-Iran war has fueled outsized short-term gains across the oil sector, though analysts warn against treating the conflict as a long-term investing thesis, according to a piece published by CNBC. As of last Friday, U.S. crude traded under $85 a barrel and Brent near $90, both down more than 5% for the week on hopes of de-escalation.

Blowout earnings from Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Valero underscored how war-driven volatility has boosted profits, with oil-refiner and crude-volatility ETFs among the biggest winners of the past six months.

Yet, analysts note the energy rally actually predates the war, tracing back to inflows following the 2024 U.S. election. Futures-tracking ETFs like DBO carry far higher volatility than equity funds like XLE, appealing to short-term traders. But experts caution that geopolitically driven markets are too unpredictable for investors with a longer time horizon.

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U.S. Launches $5.7 Million Western Sahara Green Energy Project

The U.S. Trade and Development Agency has awarded $5.7 million to ORNX—a consortium of America’s Ortus Climate Mitigation and the Spanish-German Acciona-Nordex Green Hydrogen venture—marking Washington’s first federal support for a renewable energy project in Western Sahara, Bloomberg reported.

The grant funds a feasibility study for a proposed $4.5 billion green ammonia plant in Laayoune, expected to produce 560,000 metric tonnes annually using solar and wind power.

The funding underscores deepening U.S.-Morocco ties since Washington recognized Rabat’s sovereignty over the disputed territory in 2020. The funding also acts as another major step in the development of Morocco’s green energy sector, which has been a major focus of Gulf investments in the North African kingdom. Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power, for instance, recently gained a permit in northern Morocco tied to the Khalladi wind project.

Japan Backs Namibia Rare Earth Project to Cut China Dependence

Japan’s JOGMEC will invest up to C$47.7 million ($33.9 million) in TJ Namibia Rare Earths, a Toyota Tsusho subsidiary, to develop the Lofdal heavy rare earth deposit in Namibia’s Kunene Region, potentially Japan’s first rare earth mine in Africa. The deposit holds significant dysprosium and terbium, critical for magnets used in EVs, wind turbines and defense equipment.

The investment is part of Tokyo’s push to diversify mineral supply chains after China repeatedly tightened rare earth export controls, including measures targeting Japan in January and twice in February this year. A feasibility study will now proceed toward a final decision by March 2027.

The move draws in a new player into the wider chase for critical minerals across Africa. Gulf mining companies will take closer note in order to identify growing competitors.

Anglo American Nears $1 Billion De Beers Sale Amid Diamond Slump

Anglo American Plc is in talks to offload its De Beers diamond business for roughly $1 billion, Bloomberg reported, a steep markdown for a company once synonymous with global diamond dominance. The move continues Anglo’s portfolio overhaul since repelling BHP Group’s nearly $50 billion takeover bid in 2024.

A prolonged downturn in diamond demand has repeatedly hit De Beers’ valuation, with Anglo booking three impairment charges over three years and cutting the unit’s book value to $2.3 billion by February. A $1 billion price tag would mark a sharp discount to that figure and to De Beers’ storied past as the industry’s near-monopoly leader.

The move comes as Botswana, one of the world’s largest diamond producers, has been looking to increase its stake in De Beers, in conjunction with investors in the UAE and Oman.

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Washington Unveils $500M U.S.-Africa Critical Minerals Investment Push

The U.S. has launched a $500 million U.S.-Africa Strategic Investment Program focused on securing access to Africa’s critical minerals. The program, administered by the State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs, will award up to 10 grants of $5-50 million to strengthen mineral supply chains and expand U.S. business opportunities across sub-Saharan Africa. The initiative also supports geological mapping, regulatory reform, and workforce development. It marks a pivotal shift toward prioritizing private investment over traditional foreign aid.

Gulf advancements into Africa’s critical mineral landscape has largely been done in partnership with Washington. In March, American investment firm Cove Capital and Saudi conglomerate AHQ announced a joint multibillion-dollar fund to invest in critical minerals projects across Africa. The new program will likely pave the way for similar future partnerships.

ECOWAS Backs $25bn Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline

West African leaders have signed an intergovernmental agreement giving regional backing to the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline, a roughly 6,000 kilometer project set to carry Nigerian natural gas along Africa’s Atlantic coastline to Morocco. The pipeline would then connect to the existing Maghreb-Europe pipeline, extending supply to Spain and beyond.

The plan envisions moving 30 billion cubic metres of gas annually, with about 15 billion destined for Morocco and onward to Europe. Estimated at $25-27bn, the project still requires investors and a final investment decision, with construction targeted to start in 2028.

North Africa’s energy sector has become a focal point for Gulf foreign investment: in late June, Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power secured a new permit in northern Morocco tied to the Khalladi wind project. As the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline searches for investors, those in Riyadh and elsewhere in the GCC are likely to step forward.

Mali’s Gold Output Set to Stay Below 60 Tons Through 2029

Mali’s mines ministry expects industrial gold production to remain under 60 metric tons annually through 2029, according to a government plan seen by Reuters, extending a decline tied to a revised mining code and disputes with foreign miners.

The 2026-2029 forecast projects output at 43.2 tons in 2026, rising to 51.2 tons in 2027, peaking at 57 tons in 2028, then easing to 50 tons in 2029. That follows a drop to 42.2 tons in 2025 from 54.8 tons in 2024, well below the 2023 record of 66.5 tons.

Gulf mining countries, increasingly focused on expanding gold supply chains throughout Africa, will watch the developments closely. Despite Mali’s gold wealth, the country’s tightening controls may deter GCC companies from entering the market.

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Oil Climbs to $100 As Iran War Expands to Red Sea

The end of May saw Brent crude trade at its highest levels of above $100, a peak that was quickly calmed after a ceasefire was agreed between the United States and Iran. However, with the ceasefire having collapsed and the Yemeni Houthis announcing an attack on two Saudi Arabian tankers, oil prices have rebounded back to $100. The compounding effect of both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb—two of the world’s most critical chokepoints for oil trade—is suffocating global energy markets. Financial Times reports fears of oil prices potentially exceeding the 2022 high of $139 a barrel following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Egypt Launches Wave of Energy Exploration and Development Deals

Amid the wider energy shocks rippling from the Iran crisis, Egypt is accelerating its own domestic energy development. Parliament approved four separate agreements focused on oil and gas exploration and development, covering North Sinai, the Nile Delta, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Eastern Desert.

The dealmaking efforts come not only as Egypt aims to court greater foreign investment in its own energy sector, but also aims to integrate itself in the sectors of its neighbors. Recently, an Egyptian consortium consisting of Petrojet and Enppi was shortlisted by Petroleum Development Oman to bid for its $6 billion project portfolio.

New American Executive Order Heightens the Critical Minerals Race in Africa

The U.S. unveiled a new defense-focused Executive Order, calling for the securement of vital supply chains to bolster American security capabilities. In particular, the Order focuses on the procurement of critical minerals, not only to enhance current American equipment and supplies, but also to weaken the supply chain grip of rivals, most notably China.

With Africa being home to roughly 30% of the world’s known critical mineral reserves, the Order is likely to draw the continent into greater focus in American foreign policy, with a particular emphasis on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), South Africa, and Zambia, home to some of the continent’s largest reserves.

With Gulf states likewise advancing their own critical mineral interests in the continent and deepening their defense partnerships with the U.S.—such as with the recent nuclear accord signed between Washington and Riyadh—the GCC’s mining relationship with Africa is likely to include Washington as a key partner.

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Adnoc Distribution to Acquire Shell’s South African Fuel Business in $1 Billion Deal

Adnoc Distribution, part of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation (ADNOC) based in the UAE, has reached an agreement with oil giant Shell over its fuel business in South Africa. As part of the $1 billion deal, Adnoc Distribution will acquire 100% of Shell Downstream South Africa’s (SDSA) share capital, including 580 fuel stations and other operations. Adnoc Distribution anticipates the deal will boost its earnings per share by 6% in the first full year after completion.

First Abu Dhabi Bank Inches Closer to South African Expansion After Legal Victory

First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), the UAE’s largest lender and one of the most prominent financial institutions in the Middle East and North Africa, has made progress toward establishing itself in South Africa. On July 7, the South African Supreme Court of Appeal ruled that FAB is eligible to register local trademarks, after a dispute launched by FirstRand–which owns the retail banking brand FNB–argued that the name “First Abu Dhabi Bank” was too close to its own.

The timing is notable: not only have international banks such as HSBC withdrawn from South Africa recently, but Gulf countries are increasingly deepening economic ties with the Southern African region more broadly in banking and finance.

South Africa Proposes Overhaul of Fuel Reserve Policy

Amid tightening oil supply linked to the Iran crisis, South Africa’s Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources issued a draft policy document outlining changes to fuel reserve requirements. According to African Economy Inc., the proposal calls for licensed wholesalers and fuel importers to maintain fuel stocks equal to 21 days of supply; 70% as crude oil and the remaining 30% as refined petroleum products. The government would also establish a strategic reserve equivalent to 60 days of national supply.

The proposal is currently undergoing public consultation before adoption.

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SOUTH AFRICA: ADNOC Nears $1 Billion Deal for Shell’s South African Gas Stations

Adnoc Distribution, a unit of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, is reportedly nearing a $1 billion deal to buy Shell’s gas station network in South Africa, according to Bloomberg.

The acquisition would hand Adnoc more than 600 outlets and roughly 10% market share in the country. Talks have reportedly been ongoing since 2024, continuing even through disruptions tied to the Iran conflict that affected Adnoc’s broader business.

The move is part of Adnoc’s broader efforts to expand its reach across emerging markets. Adnoc’s low-carbon arm XRG signed a deal to take a 32% stake in three Argentine gas blocks, underscoring how aggressively the Adnoc ecosystem is currently expanding globally, across both fuel retail and upstream energy.

EGYPT: UAE Secures $200 Million Real Estate Contract

Abu Dhabi-based holding company Modon Holding awarded a $200 million (EGP 10 billion) infrastructure contract for the Wadi Yemm district to a joint venture between Egypt’s Rowad Modern Engineering and Greece’s Consolidated Contractors Company.

Wadi Yemm will be the first luxury residential destination within the broader Ras El Hekma development, featuring residential units, hotels, two golf courses, a country club, and a 10,000-seat open-air theatre.

The announcement comes as part of a wider wave of Gulf capital reshaping Egyptian real estate, particularly from the UAE. In January, Modon awarded a separate $316 million (EGP 15 billion) contract to Egypt’s Orascom Construction for a mixed-use project within the same mega-development. Similarly, Emirati firm Majid Al Futtaim recently agreed to a $4 billion contract with New Cairo’s Mada City.

ETHIOPIA: Preliminary Agreement Signed to Restructure $1 Billion Eurobond

Ethiopia’s Ministry of Finance issued a statement confirming a preliminary agreement was reached with bondholders to restructure the country’s $1 billion Eurobond. The deal will see the introduction of a new financial instrument offered to bondholders, alongside the formation of a New Money Warrant.

The announcement marks a pivotal step in restoring investor confidence in Ethiopia, particularly within the GCC. This is especially important for the UAE, a close political ally of Addis Ababa. A report from July 2025 by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies states that the UAE has thus far invested $2.3 billion in Ethiopia; the bond restructuring will likely pave the way for increased investment.

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MOROCCO: Saudi’s Acwa Power Secures $60 Million Permit

Acwa Power, a renewable energy development and investment company based in Saudi Arabia, gained a new permit in northern Morocco tied to the Khalladi wind project. Totalling roughly $60 million, the permit will expand the 120MW plant over the next two years to meet rising industrial demand. The permit increases Acwa’s already substantial footprint in Morocco, with $3 billion invested in Morocco to date.

Acwa Power is 44% owned by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, and its shares are up about 9% year-to-date despite Q1 net profit falling 19%. Its increasing involvement in Morocco reflects Rabat’s effort to attract foreign investment to realize its renewable energy potential, specifically by tapping into the country’s vast phosphate wealth.

ALGERIA: Algiers and Riyadh to launch $5.4 Billion Oil and Gas Project

Algerian Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab held talks with Saudi state-owned Midad. The discussions focused on officially launching a $5.4 billion contract signed between Midad and Algerian state-owned Sonatrach in October. The deal will see Midad finance oil and gas exploration in southern Algeria over the course of 30 years.

The agreement is part of Algeria’s effort to modernize its energy sector by utilizing foreign investment, particularly amid a tide of rising European demand. The GCC’s expertise in oil and gas, coupled with its close historical, cultural, and commercial ties to North Africa, has positioned the GCC as a key partner to Algeria.

NIGERIA: Abuja Draws $1.5 Billion from First Abu Dhabi Bank, Dangote Refinery Purchases Emirati Crude

Nigeria withdrew the first tranche of a $5 billion financing package from First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB). The tranche, worth $1.5 billion, aims to help Abuja address budget financing requirements and refinance higher-cost borrowings.

In parallel, the Dangote Refinery bought two cargoes of Emirati crude. The purchase comes in the aftermath of a meeting between Aliko Dangote and ADNOC Group CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber in Abu Dhabi.

As the UAE expands its African investments to the western region, Nigeria has emerged as its closest partner. Nigeria likewise views Emirati collaboration as a significant step toward both addressing fiscal challenges and bolstering its energy sector.

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NIGERIA: Dangote Group and ADNOC Explore Strategic Collaboration

WHAT HAPPENED?

Aliko Dangote, head of the Dangote Group, met with Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Managing Director and Group CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), in Abu Dhabi. The meeting focused on exploring energy and industrial partnership opportunities between Dangote Group and ADNOC.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The UAE has increasingly expanded its African investment reach beyond just the Northeast region, with Nigeria becoming the core of its West African strategy. The recent meeting not only advances this strategy but also reflects the widening importance of Africa-Gulf partnerships, particularly in energy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Expect a round of new partnership deals between Dangote Group and ADNOC in the coming months, which could spur other Gulf states to follow suit.

SUDAN: Central Bank of Sudan Liquidates Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank’s Sudan Branch

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Central Bank of Sudan issued an administrative decision liquidating the Sudanese branch of Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB). The decision was made at the request of ADIB’s headquarters, due to limited economic viability in Sudan as a result of the war.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Sudan’s war has devastated the country’s foreign investment landscape. Despite recent mining deals with both Saudi Arabia and Qatar, ADIB’s liquidation signals how intertwined counterparty and FX risk remain in Khartoum.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Other Gulf banking institutions will continue to monitor the war in Sudan closely. As the conflict’s effects continue to spread to neighboring countries, such as Ethiopia, other institutions may follow in ADIB’s footsteps.

LIBYA: Libya Hits Highest Oil Production Since 2013

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced that crude oil production hit 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), approaching the NOC’s official target of 1.5 million bpd. It marks the highest level of production since 2013.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Libya’s oil rebound has increasingly positioned it as a key alternative source for energy buyers amid disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The result has been a spree of energy contracts with foreign companies, including Oman’s OQ Exploration and Production and QatarEnergy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The NOC’s announcement is likely to spur a further slate of oil deals as investor confidence rises, with Gulf energy companies among the most interested in partnering with Libya.

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EGYPT: UAE’s Majid Al Futtaim Signs $3.1 Billion Cairo Mega Housing Project

WHAT HAPPENED?

Dubai-based Majid Al Futtaim Group signed a deal with Egypt’s Midar to develop a mixed-use complex in New Cairo’s Mada City. Currently worth $3.1 billion, the deal is expected to reach $4 billion upon completion.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The project adds to a wave of Gulf capital flowing into Egyptian real estate, following the 2024 $24 billion Ras El Hekma deal with Abu Dhabi-based ADQ. It also signals continued confidence in Egypt’s real estate market despite broader economic pressures, and reinforces Cairo’s status as a top regional investment destination for Gulf states.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Construction begins in phases, with the first 840,000 square meter stage–roughly 6,000 homes along with retail and hospitality space–set for completion within four years.

KENYA: US Strikes $62.4 Billion Rare Earth Deposit Deal

WHAT HAPPENED?

The US secured a preliminary agreement with Kenya for access to the Mrima Hill rare earth and niobium deposit, valued at $62.4 billion, with all minerals to be processed domestically rather than exported raw.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The deal marks a strategic win for Washington over Beijing, which dominates mineral processing across Africa. Additionally, the deal reflects a broader shift toward East African critical minerals, as new discoveries are made across the region.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Given the Gulf’s close commercial relations with East Africa, mining organizations in the GCC will aim to expand their presence to countries such as Kenya, which has seen a combined $990.5 billion in foreign investment from both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

ZAMBIA: Vedanta’s US IPO to Accelerate $2.7 Billion Zambia Copper Expansion

WHAT HAPPENED?

ZCCM Investment Holdings announced that Vedanta Resources’ planned American listing of its copper unit, CopperTech Metals, could accelerate the $2.7 billion Konkola Deep Mine project by about three years, completing by 2028.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The expansion is part of Zambia’s wider effort of tripling its national copper output to 3 million metric tons by 2031, driven by the skyrocketing global demand from EVs, renewables, and artificial intelligence.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Vedanta has already expanded its footprint to the GCC; in 2024, it signed a $2 billion investment deal with Saudi Arabia to build major copper processing facilities. Vedanta and the GCC may continue deepening their partnership via joint ventures in Zambia and other parts of Southern Africa.

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NORTH AFRICA: Egypt Clears $6.1 Billion Energy Debt

WHAT HAPPENED?

Egypt announced it had paid off $6.1 billion in arrears owed to foreign energy companies.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Egypt holds roughly 93 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves, but its debt has left foreign oil firms wary of investing. Clearing the arrears should restore confidence as Egypt positions itself as a key gas supplier to Europe.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf energy companies will likely be among the first to invest in Cairo’s gas exploration and infrastructure.

EAST AFRICA: Sudan Scales Back Iranian Weapon Imports

WHAT HAPPENED?

Bloomberg reported the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), now in its fourth year of war against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), will reduce purchases of Iranian weapons.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Iranian drones, such as the Mohajer-6, are central to the SAF’s aerial arsenal in a conflict increasingly defined by drone warfare. But the reliance has strained Sudan’s ties with Middle East allies and the US; the SAF hopes distancing from Tehran will improve its standing in US-led peace talks.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Until a permanent ceasefire with Iran is secured, Washington’s priority will stay on the Gulf. Once finalized, the US will likely reengage with Sudan and assess its pivot away from Iran.

CENTRAL AFRICA: DRC Miners Attempt to Delay 5% Worker Equity Policy

WHAT HAPPENED?

A DRC directive requiring miners to hand a 5% stake to Congolese workers faces pushback from firms seeking to delay its July 31 deadline.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The DRC’s mineral wealth has drawn growing investment, including from the GCC. The rule is unlikely to deter investment, but will reshape cost calculations for companies operating in the market.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Ministry of Mines and unions meet today to discuss the directive. Gulf mining firms active in the region will watch closely as the policy develops.

WEST AFRICA: Nigeria Attracted $3 Billion in Solid Minerals in Three Years

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigeria’s Ministry of Solid Minerals announced the sector drew $3 billion in investment from 2023, concentrated in lithium, gold, and related minerals.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Abuja has worked to diversify its economy beyond oil; this record investment reflects those efforts. Foreign investors are likely to follow, pairing mining partnerships with Nigeria’s energy sector.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As Gulf countries, particularly the UAE, deepen ties with Nigeria, mining will likely become a cornerstone of cooperation.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Angola’s Sonangol Secures $2.65 Billion from First Abu Dhabi Bank and Others

WHAT HAPPENED?

Angola’s Sonangol raised $2.65 billion for operational expenditure and capital investment, pooled from foreign banks, including First Abu Dhabi Bank.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Angola is one of Africa’s leading energy exporters and a key partner for Europe’s energy diversification. The deal underscores Gulf capital’s growing role in African energy; Oman, for instance, launched its African Bank of Oman in Luanda to focus on Angola-Gulf energy deals.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As Angola’s energy sector grows, so will its reliance on Gulf capital to finance the growth.

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NORTH AFRICA: Libya Secures Energy Deal with QatarEnergy and Others

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libya’s National Oil Corporation signed production-sharing agreements with QatarEnergy, Eni, Repsol, Türkiye Petrolleri, and MOL Group following the country’s first oil and gas licensing round since 2007.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The deals signal renewed international confidence in Libya’s upstream sector despite ongoing political divisions, as the country seeks to raise output from 1.4 million to 2 million barrels per day.

WHAT’S NEXT?

For the GCC, Libya’s newly awarded exploration blocks represent an early-mover opportunity in one of Africa’s most reserve-rich markets, though political risk due diligence remains essential before committing capital.

EAST AFRICA: Tanzania Unveils $23.8 Billion Budget for Next Year

WHAT HAPPENED?

Tanzania announced a $23.8 billion budget for 2026/27, a 10% spending increase, with roughly three-quarters funded through domestic revenue as foreign aid declines.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The shift reflects a broader East African trend away from donor dependence, with Tanzania betting on self-financed growth through infrastructure, healthcare, and education investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Tanzania’s infrastructure push opens concrete opportunities for Gulf partnerships in construction, energy, and logistics, viable entry points into one of East Africa’s most stable and fast-growing economies.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Equatorial Guinea’s Government Resigns

WHAT HAPPENED?

Equatorial Guinea’s Prime Minister Manuel Osa Nsue Nsua and his entire cabinet resigned on June 16, 2026, after the government achieved less than 10% of its performance targets, prompting a cabinet overhaul under Vice President Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Political reshuffles in small oil-dependent economies can shift procurement priorities and contract landscapes rapidly, creating both uncertainty and opportunity in the near term.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The cabinet reset signals a potential opening for new Gulf partnerships, provided that fresh infrastructure and development mandates are set up. Monitoring which sectors the incoming government prioritizes could reveal early entry points into Equatorial Guinea’s oil and public services markets.

WEST AFRICA: Starlink Arrives to Côte d’Ivoire

WHAT HAPPENED?

Starlink secured licenses to launch in Côte d’Ivoire by July 2026, marking the twenty-seventh African market as part of the service’s continent-wide expansion.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Satellite internet is bypassing Africa’s infrastructure gaps, unlocking connectivity for rural businesses, schools, and healthcare, accelerating digital economies that were previously too costly to reach.

WHAT’S NEXT?

For the GCC, already close backers of Starlink’s parent company, SpaceX, the service’s rollout signals growing demand for digital services, e-commerce, and fintech across underserved African markets.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Australia Widens Uranium Mining in Zambia

WHAT HAPPENED?

Australia’s Atomic Eagle expanded uranium mineralization at its Chisebuka deposit in Zambia, with drilling confirming significant high-grade zones and plans for large-scale mine development by late 2026.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As global nuclear energy demand rises, Zambia is emerging as a serious uranium frontier, attracting mining capital and signaling broader extractive sector growth in southern Africa.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Zambia’s expanding uranium build-out offers new entry opportunities for Gulf mining in Southern Africa, particularly as the GCC’s uranium demand rises.

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NORTH AFRICA: Libya Sees Rising Oil Income

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libya’s NOC reported oil income rising to $3.4 billion in May, up from $1.7 billion in January and February, driven by surging prices amid the Iran crisis.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Libya’s energy sector is attracting increased foreign buyers as Gulf supplies tighten, pushing countries like Italy and Germany to seek alternatives.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Export terminals and oil fields remain underdeveloped; Gulf investment could help upgrade infrastructure and boost exports.

EAST AFRICA: Sudanese Pound Rebounds on Parallel Market

WHAT HAPPENED?

After hitting a record low of 4,700 pounds to the dollar, the Sudanese pound rebounded following the central bank and government’s decision to take over petroleum product imports.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Key infrastructure like the al-Jaili refinery has gone largely inactive amid the war, and the Iran crisis has intensified energy pressure, accelerating Sudan’s food crisis.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With Saudi Arabia and Qatar eyeing a return to the Sudanese market, organizations will watch closely to see if the economic situation stabilizes, shaping their investment strategies.

CENTRAL AFRICA: DR Congo Urges Release of Mineral Mapping Documents

WHAT HAPPENED?

Congo’s Minister of Mines met with Belgian and EU officials to discuss digitizing mineral deposit maps held at Belgium’s Royal Museum for Central Africa.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The DRC is a centerpiece of the ongoing race for critical minerals, rich in cobalt and copper. Its efforts are conducted alongside Bill Gates-backed KoBold Metals, reflecting a broader trend of AI-driven mineral tracking.

WHAT’S NEXT?

A joint digitization framework was agreed upon. For Gulf mining organizations operating in the DRC, access to these records could unlock new market opportunities.

WEST AFRICA: Dangote Refinery Valued at $39.1 Billion

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery has been valued at $39.1 billion through a private placement seeking to raise roughly $1 billion ahead of a public listing.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As Gulf oil supplies tighten, European demand for Dangote’s capacity has surged. The fundraising effort has reportedly attracted over $2 billion in demand, underscoring strong investor interest.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With the UAE deepening commercial ties with Nigeria, GCC investors may emerge as key players in the private placement.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: IMF Devising Debt Relief Strategies for Mozambique

WHAT HAPPENED?

The IMF completed a week-long mission to Mozambique, finding that despite gradual recovery, the country faces significant financial hurdles, particularly high debt levels.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Mozambique is emerging as a global hub for floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG), with Qatar alone committing $20 billion. A prolonged debt crisis risks dampening Gulf investor confidence.

WHAT’S NEXT?

GCC states will monitor Mozambique’s IMF collaboration closely to determine their own market entry strategies in Maputo.

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NORTH AFRICA: Egypt Suez Canal Traffic Surges

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Suez Canal experienced an increase in the number of oil tankers in April, up 14% from the same period last year, attributed to shipping companies traversing away from the Strait of Hormuz.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Suez Canal represents one of the most strategically important maritime trade routes and a critical revenue stream for Egypt, serving as a cushion for the country’s ongoing economic stresses.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Shipping companies are likely to remain uncertain even if a ceasefire with Iran is secured; Tehran has also signaled its intent to exert control over the Hormuz long-term, driving more maritime profits to Cairo.

EAST AFRICA: Ethiopia spending to rise next fiscal year

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ethiopian Finance Minister Ahmed Shide announced that overall spending will rise in the 2026/27 fiscal year from 1.92 trillion birr ($12.92 billion) to roughly 2.34 trillion birr ($14.69 billion), attributed to the ripple effects of the Iran war.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Ethiopia remains a cornerstone for Gulf investments in East Africa; sustained fiscal pressure may deter further GCC collaboration.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Ethiopia is likely to accelerate its ongoing bond restructuring efforts to limit further fiscal pressure.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Chinese Cobalt Production Plummets

WHAT HAPPENED?

Financial Times reported a fall in cobalt metal production by China since the beginning of last year, dropping from over 80% refining capacity utilization to under 20%, attributed to export curbs on mined cobalt hydroxide by the Democratic Republic of Congo.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Cobalt hydroxide remains fundamental to modern technologies such as batteries; limited supply coupled with soaring input costs will likely drive rising end-product prices.

WHAT’S NEXT?

For Gulf mining organizations, China’s production fall represents an opportunity to deepen its mining foothold, but also serves as a warning sign for market entry.

WEST AFRICA: IMF Cautions of $5 Billion Nigeria-UAE Derivatives Agreement

WHAT HAPPENED?

The IMF has alerted Nigeria against its derivatives agreement with First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), under which FAB will lend Nigeria $5 billion to cut borrowing costs, citing transparency concerns.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Nigeria is emerging as the critical node in the UAE’s growing West African commercial footprint. A pivot away could decelerate the Emirates’ strategy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Although the IMF has argued for Nigeria to issue eurobonds instead, Abuja is likely to proceed with the agreement following its Senate approval in April.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Zambia Obtains Bondholder Backing for $1.36 Billion Eurobond

WHAT HAPPENED?

Zambia has passed the 75% participation mark needed to repurchase its $1.36 billion Eurobond, made possible in part by a $600 million loan from the African Development Bank.

WHY IT MATTERS?

After defaulting on sovereign debt in 2020, this effort marks a significant acceleration in Zambia’s debt restructuring and could act as a model for other African states such as Ethiopia.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The move will reduce uncertainty for Gulf investors looking to partner with Zambia, particularly in its copper-rich mining sector.