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Washington Unveils $500M U.S.-Africa Critical Minerals Investment Push

The U.S. has launched a $500 million U.S.-Africa Strategic Investment Program focused on securing access to Africa’s critical minerals. The program, administered by the State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs, will award up to 10 grants of $5-50 million to strengthen mineral supply chains and expand U.S. business opportunities across sub-Saharan Africa. The initiative also supports geological mapping, regulatory reform, and workforce development. It marks a pivotal shift toward prioritizing private investment over traditional foreign aid.

Gulf advancements into Africa’s critical mineral landscape has largely been done in partnership with Washington. In March, American investment firm Cove Capital and Saudi conglomerate AHQ announced a joint multibillion-dollar fund to invest in critical minerals projects across Africa. The new program will likely pave the way for similar future partnerships.

ECOWAS Backs $25bn Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline

West African leaders have signed an intergovernmental agreement giving regional backing to the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline, a roughly 6,000 kilometer project set to carry Nigerian natural gas along Africa’s Atlantic coastline to Morocco. The pipeline would then connect to the existing Maghreb-Europe pipeline, extending supply to Spain and beyond.

The plan envisions moving 30 billion cubic metres of gas annually, with about 15 billion destined for Morocco and onward to Europe. Estimated at $25-27bn, the project still requires investors and a final investment decision, with construction targeted to start in 2028.

North Africa’s energy sector has become a focal point for Gulf foreign investment: in late June, Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power secured a new permit in northern Morocco tied to the Khalladi wind project. As the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline searches for investors, those in Riyadh and elsewhere in the GCC are likely to step forward.

Mali’s Gold Output Set to Stay Below 60 Tons Through 2029

Mali’s mines ministry expects industrial gold production to remain under 60 metric tons annually through 2029, according to a government plan seen by Reuters, extending a decline tied to a revised mining code and disputes with foreign miners.

The 2026-2029 forecast projects output at 43.2 tons in 2026, rising to 51.2 tons in 2027, peaking at 57 tons in 2028, then easing to 50 tons in 2029. That follows a drop to 42.2 tons in 2025 from 54.8 tons in 2024, well below the 2023 record of 66.5 tons.

Gulf mining countries, increasingly focused on expanding gold supply chains throughout Africa, will watch the developments closely. Despite Mali’s gold wealth, the country’s tightening controls may deter GCC companies from entering the market.

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Oil Climbs to $100 As Iran War Expands to Red Sea

The end of May saw Brent crude trade at its highest levels of above $100, a peak that was quickly calmed after a ceasefire was agreed between the United States and Iran. However, with the ceasefire having collapsed and the Yemeni Houthis announcing an attack on two Saudi Arabian tankers, oil prices have rebounded back to $100. The compounding effect of both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb—two of the world’s most critical chokepoints for oil trade—is suffocating global energy markets. Financial Times reports fears of oil prices potentially exceeding the 2022 high of $139 a barrel following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Egypt Launches Wave of Energy Exploration and Development Deals

Amid the wider energy shocks rippling from the Iran crisis, Egypt is accelerating its own domestic energy development. Parliament approved four separate agreements focused on oil and gas exploration and development, covering North Sinai, the Nile Delta, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Eastern Desert.

The dealmaking efforts come not only as Egypt aims to court greater foreign investment in its own energy sector, but also aims to integrate itself in the sectors of its neighbors. Recently, an Egyptian consortium consisting of Petrojet and Enppi was shortlisted by Petroleum Development Oman to bid for its $6 billion project portfolio.

New American Executive Order Heightens the Critical Minerals Race in Africa

The U.S. unveiled a new defense-focused Executive Order, calling for the securement of vital supply chains to bolster American security capabilities. In particular, the Order focuses on the procurement of critical minerals, not only to enhance current American equipment and supplies, but also to weaken the supply chain grip of rivals, most notably China.

With Africa being home to roughly 30% of the world’s known critical mineral reserves, the Order is likely to draw the continent into greater focus in American foreign policy, with a particular emphasis on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), South Africa, and Zambia, home to some of the continent’s largest reserves.

With Gulf states likewise advancing their own critical mineral interests in the continent and deepening their defense partnerships with the U.S.—such as with the recent nuclear accord signed between Washington and Riyadh—the GCC’s mining relationship with Africa is likely to include Washington as a key partner.

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Adnoc Distribution to Acquire Shell’s South African Fuel Business in $1 Billion Deal

Adnoc Distribution, part of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation (ADNOC) based in the UAE, has reached an agreement with oil giant Shell over its fuel business in South Africa. As part of the $1 billion deal, Adnoc Distribution will acquire 100% of Shell Downstream South Africa’s (SDSA) share capital, including 580 fuel stations and other operations. Adnoc Distribution anticipates the deal will boost its earnings per share by 6% in the first full year after completion.

First Abu Dhabi Bank Inches Closer to South African Expansion After Legal Victory

First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), the UAE’s largest lender and one of the most prominent financial institutions in the Middle East and North Africa, has made progress toward establishing itself in South Africa. On July 7, the South African Supreme Court of Appeal ruled that FAB is eligible to register local trademarks, after a dispute launched by FirstRand–which owns the retail banking brand FNB–argued that the name “First Abu Dhabi Bank” was too close to its own.

The timing is notable: not only have international banks such as HSBC withdrawn from South Africa recently, but Gulf countries are increasingly deepening economic ties with the Southern African region more broadly in banking and finance.

South Africa Proposes Overhaul of Fuel Reserve Policy

Amid tightening oil supply linked to the Iran crisis, South Africa’s Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources issued a draft policy document outlining changes to fuel reserve requirements. According to African Economy Inc., the proposal calls for licensed wholesalers and fuel importers to maintain fuel stocks equal to 21 days of supply; 70% as crude oil and the remaining 30% as refined petroleum products. The government would also establish a strategic reserve equivalent to 60 days of national supply.

The proposal is currently undergoing public consultation before adoption.

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SOUTH AFRICA: ADNOC Nears $1 Billion Deal for Shell’s South African Gas Stations

Adnoc Distribution, a unit of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, is reportedly nearing a $1 billion deal to buy Shell’s gas station network in South Africa, according to Bloomberg.

The acquisition would hand Adnoc more than 600 outlets and roughly 10% market share in the country. Talks have reportedly been ongoing since 2024, continuing even through disruptions tied to the Iran conflict that affected Adnoc’s broader business.

The move is part of Adnoc’s broader efforts to expand its reach across emerging markets. Adnoc’s low-carbon arm XRG signed a deal to take a 32% stake in three Argentine gas blocks, underscoring how aggressively the Adnoc ecosystem is currently expanding globally, across both fuel retail and upstream energy.

EGYPT: UAE Secures $200 Million Real Estate Contract

Abu Dhabi-based holding company Modon Holding awarded a $200 million (EGP 10 billion) infrastructure contract for the Wadi Yemm district to a joint venture between Egypt’s Rowad Modern Engineering and Greece’s Consolidated Contractors Company.

Wadi Yemm will be the first luxury residential destination within the broader Ras El Hekma development, featuring residential units, hotels, two golf courses, a country club, and a 10,000-seat open-air theatre.

The announcement comes as part of a wider wave of Gulf capital reshaping Egyptian real estate, particularly from the UAE. In January, Modon awarded a separate $316 million (EGP 15 billion) contract to Egypt’s Orascom Construction for a mixed-use project within the same mega-development. Similarly, Emirati firm Majid Al Futtaim recently agreed to a $4 billion contract with New Cairo’s Mada City.

ETHIOPIA: Preliminary Agreement Signed to Restructure $1 Billion Eurobond

Ethiopia’s Ministry of Finance issued a statement confirming a preliminary agreement was reached with bondholders to restructure the country’s $1 billion Eurobond. The deal will see the introduction of a new financial instrument offered to bondholders, alongside the formation of a New Money Warrant.

The announcement marks a pivotal step in restoring investor confidence in Ethiopia, particularly within the GCC. This is especially important for the UAE, a close political ally of Addis Ababa. A report from July 2025 by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies states that the UAE has thus far invested $2.3 billion in Ethiopia; the bond restructuring will likely pave the way for increased investment.

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MOROCCO: Saudi’s Acwa Power Secures $60 Million Permit

Acwa Power, a renewable energy development and investment company based in Saudi Arabia, gained a new permit in northern Morocco tied to the Khalladi wind project. Totalling roughly $60 million, the permit will expand the 120MW plant over the next two years to meet rising industrial demand. The permit increases Acwa’s already substantial footprint in Morocco, with $3 billion invested in Morocco to date.

Acwa Power is 44% owned by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, and its shares are up about 9% year-to-date despite Q1 net profit falling 19%. Its increasing involvement in Morocco reflects Rabat’s effort to attract foreign investment to realize its renewable energy potential, specifically by tapping into the country’s vast phosphate wealth.

ALGERIA: Algiers and Riyadh to launch $5.4 Billion Oil and Gas Project

Algerian Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab held talks with Saudi state-owned Midad. The discussions focused on officially launching a $5.4 billion contract signed between Midad and Algerian state-owned Sonatrach in October. The deal will see Midad finance oil and gas exploration in southern Algeria over the course of 30 years.

The agreement is part of Algeria’s effort to modernize its energy sector by utilizing foreign investment, particularly amid a tide of rising European demand. The GCC’s expertise in oil and gas, coupled with its close historical, cultural, and commercial ties to North Africa, has positioned the GCC as a key partner to Algeria.

NIGERIA: Abuja Draws $1.5 Billion from First Abu Dhabi Bank, Dangote Refinery Purchases Emirati Crude

Nigeria withdrew the first tranche of a $5 billion financing package from First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB). The tranche, worth $1.5 billion, aims to help Abuja address budget financing requirements and refinance higher-cost borrowings.

In parallel, the Dangote Refinery bought two cargoes of Emirati crude. The purchase comes in the aftermath of a meeting between Aliko Dangote and ADNOC Group CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber in Abu Dhabi.

As the UAE expands its African investments to the western region, Nigeria has emerged as its closest partner. Nigeria likewise views Emirati collaboration as a significant step toward both addressing fiscal challenges and bolstering its energy sector.

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NIGERIA: Dangote Group and ADNOC Explore Strategic Collaboration

WHAT HAPPENED?

Aliko Dangote, head of the Dangote Group, met with Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Managing Director and Group CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), in Abu Dhabi. The meeting focused on exploring energy and industrial partnership opportunities between Dangote Group and ADNOC.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The UAE has increasingly expanded its African investment reach beyond just the Northeast region, with Nigeria becoming the core of its West African strategy. The recent meeting not only advances this strategy but also reflects the widening importance of Africa-Gulf partnerships, particularly in energy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Expect a round of new partnership deals between Dangote Group and ADNOC in the coming months, which could spur other Gulf states to follow suit.

SUDAN: Central Bank of Sudan Liquidates Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank’s Sudan Branch

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Central Bank of Sudan issued an administrative decision liquidating the Sudanese branch of Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB). The decision was made at the request of ADIB’s headquarters, due to limited economic viability in Sudan as a result of the war.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Sudan’s war has devastated the country’s foreign investment landscape. Despite recent mining deals with both Saudi Arabia and Qatar, ADIB’s liquidation signals how intertwined counterparty and FX risk remain in Khartoum.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Other Gulf banking institutions will continue to monitor the war in Sudan closely. As the conflict’s effects continue to spread to neighboring countries, such as Ethiopia, other institutions may follow in ADIB’s footsteps.

LIBYA: Libya Hits Highest Oil Production Since 2013

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced that crude oil production hit 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), approaching the NOC’s official target of 1.5 million bpd. It marks the highest level of production since 2013.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Libya’s oil rebound has increasingly positioned it as a key alternative source for energy buyers amid disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The result has been a spree of energy contracts with foreign companies, including Oman’s OQ Exploration and Production and QatarEnergy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The NOC’s announcement is likely to spur a further slate of oil deals as investor confidence rises, with Gulf energy companies among the most interested in partnering with Libya.

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EGYPT: UAE’s Majid Al Futtaim Signs $3.1 Billion Cairo Mega Housing Project

WHAT HAPPENED?

Dubai-based Majid Al Futtaim Group signed a deal with Egypt’s Midar to develop a mixed-use complex in New Cairo’s Mada City. Currently worth $3.1 billion, the deal is expected to reach $4 billion upon completion.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The project adds to a wave of Gulf capital flowing into Egyptian real estate, following the 2024 $24 billion Ras El Hekma deal with Abu Dhabi-based ADQ. It also signals continued confidence in Egypt’s real estate market despite broader economic pressures, and reinforces Cairo’s status as a top regional investment destination for Gulf states.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Construction begins in phases, with the first 840,000 square meter stage–roughly 6,000 homes along with retail and hospitality space–set for completion within four years.

KENYA: US Strikes $62.4 Billion Rare Earth Deposit Deal

WHAT HAPPENED?

The US secured a preliminary agreement with Kenya for access to the Mrima Hill rare earth and niobium deposit, valued at $62.4 billion, with all minerals to be processed domestically rather than exported raw.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The deal marks a strategic win for Washington over Beijing, which dominates mineral processing across Africa. Additionally, the deal reflects a broader shift toward East African critical minerals, as new discoveries are made across the region.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Given the Gulf’s close commercial relations with East Africa, mining organizations in the GCC will aim to expand their presence to countries such as Kenya, which has seen a combined $990.5 billion in foreign investment from both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

ZAMBIA: Vedanta’s US IPO to Accelerate $2.7 Billion Zambia Copper Expansion

WHAT HAPPENED?

ZCCM Investment Holdings announced that Vedanta Resources’ planned American listing of its copper unit, CopperTech Metals, could accelerate the $2.7 billion Konkola Deep Mine project by about three years, completing by 2028.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The expansion is part of Zambia’s wider effort of tripling its national copper output to 3 million metric tons by 2031, driven by the skyrocketing global demand from EVs, renewables, and artificial intelligence.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Vedanta has already expanded its footprint to the GCC; in 2024, it signed a $2 billion investment deal with Saudi Arabia to build major copper processing facilities. Vedanta and the GCC may continue deepening their partnership via joint ventures in Zambia and other parts of Southern Africa.

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NORTH AFRICA: Egypt Clears $6.1 Billion Energy Debt

WHAT HAPPENED?

Egypt announced it had paid off $6.1 billion in arrears owed to foreign energy companies.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Egypt holds roughly 93 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves, but its debt has left foreign oil firms wary of investing. Clearing the arrears should restore confidence as Egypt positions itself as a key gas supplier to Europe.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf energy companies will likely be among the first to invest in Cairo’s gas exploration and infrastructure.

EAST AFRICA: Sudan Scales Back Iranian Weapon Imports

WHAT HAPPENED?

Bloomberg reported the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), now in its fourth year of war against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), will reduce purchases of Iranian weapons.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Iranian drones, such as the Mohajer-6, are central to the SAF’s aerial arsenal in a conflict increasingly defined by drone warfare. But the reliance has strained Sudan’s ties with Middle East allies and the US; the SAF hopes distancing from Tehran will improve its standing in US-led peace talks.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Until a permanent ceasefire with Iran is secured, Washington’s priority will stay on the Gulf. Once finalized, the US will likely reengage with Sudan and assess its pivot away from Iran.

CENTRAL AFRICA: DRC Miners Attempt to Delay 5% Worker Equity Policy

WHAT HAPPENED?

A DRC directive requiring miners to hand a 5% stake to Congolese workers faces pushback from firms seeking to delay its July 31 deadline.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The DRC’s mineral wealth has drawn growing investment, including from the GCC. The rule is unlikely to deter investment, but will reshape cost calculations for companies operating in the market.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Ministry of Mines and unions meet today to discuss the directive. Gulf mining firms active in the region will watch closely as the policy develops.

WEST AFRICA: Nigeria Attracted $3 Billion in Solid Minerals in Three Years

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigeria’s Ministry of Solid Minerals announced the sector drew $3 billion in investment from 2023, concentrated in lithium, gold, and related minerals.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Abuja has worked to diversify its economy beyond oil; this record investment reflects those efforts. Foreign investors are likely to follow, pairing mining partnerships with Nigeria’s energy sector.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As Gulf countries, particularly the UAE, deepen ties with Nigeria, mining will likely become a cornerstone of cooperation.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Angola’s Sonangol Secures $2.65 Billion from First Abu Dhabi Bank and Others

WHAT HAPPENED?

Angola’s Sonangol raised $2.65 billion for operational expenditure and capital investment, pooled from foreign banks, including First Abu Dhabi Bank.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Angola is one of Africa’s leading energy exporters and a key partner for Europe’s energy diversification. The deal underscores Gulf capital’s growing role in African energy; Oman, for instance, launched its African Bank of Oman in Luanda to focus on Angola-Gulf energy deals.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As Angola’s energy sector grows, so will its reliance on Gulf capital to finance the growth.

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NORTH AFRICA: Libya Secures Energy Deal with QatarEnergy and Others

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libya’s National Oil Corporation signed production-sharing agreements with QatarEnergy, Eni, Repsol, Türkiye Petrolleri, and MOL Group following the country’s first oil and gas licensing round since 2007.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The deals signal renewed international confidence in Libya’s upstream sector despite ongoing political divisions, as the country seeks to raise output from 1.4 million to 2 million barrels per day.

WHAT’S NEXT?

For the GCC, Libya’s newly awarded exploration blocks represent an early-mover opportunity in one of Africa’s most reserve-rich markets, though political risk due diligence remains essential before committing capital.

EAST AFRICA: Tanzania Unveils $23.8 Billion Budget for Next Year

WHAT HAPPENED?

Tanzania announced a $23.8 billion budget for 2026/27, a 10% spending increase, with roughly three-quarters funded through domestic revenue as foreign aid declines.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The shift reflects a broader East African trend away from donor dependence, with Tanzania betting on self-financed growth through infrastructure, healthcare, and education investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Tanzania’s infrastructure push opens concrete opportunities for Gulf partnerships in construction, energy, and logistics, viable entry points into one of East Africa’s most stable and fast-growing economies.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Equatorial Guinea’s Government Resigns

WHAT HAPPENED?

Equatorial Guinea’s Prime Minister Manuel Osa Nsue Nsua and his entire cabinet resigned on June 16, 2026, after the government achieved less than 10% of its performance targets, prompting a cabinet overhaul under Vice President Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Political reshuffles in small oil-dependent economies can shift procurement priorities and contract landscapes rapidly, creating both uncertainty and opportunity in the near term.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The cabinet reset signals a potential opening for new Gulf partnerships, provided that fresh infrastructure and development mandates are set up. Monitoring which sectors the incoming government prioritizes could reveal early entry points into Equatorial Guinea’s oil and public services markets.

WEST AFRICA: Starlink Arrives to Côte d’Ivoire

WHAT HAPPENED?

Starlink secured licenses to launch in Côte d’Ivoire by July 2026, marking the twenty-seventh African market as part of the service’s continent-wide expansion.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Satellite internet is bypassing Africa’s infrastructure gaps, unlocking connectivity for rural businesses, schools, and healthcare, accelerating digital economies that were previously too costly to reach.

WHAT’S NEXT?

For the GCC, already close backers of Starlink’s parent company, SpaceX, the service’s rollout signals growing demand for digital services, e-commerce, and fintech across underserved African markets.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Australia Widens Uranium Mining in Zambia

WHAT HAPPENED?

Australia’s Atomic Eagle expanded uranium mineralization at its Chisebuka deposit in Zambia, with drilling confirming significant high-grade zones and plans for large-scale mine development by late 2026.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As global nuclear energy demand rises, Zambia is emerging as a serious uranium frontier, attracting mining capital and signaling broader extractive sector growth in southern Africa.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Zambia’s expanding uranium build-out offers new entry opportunities for Gulf mining in Southern Africa, particularly as the GCC’s uranium demand rises.

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NORTH AFRICA: Libya Sees Rising Oil Income

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libya’s NOC reported oil income rising to $3.4 billion in May, up from $1.7 billion in January and February, driven by surging prices amid the Iran crisis.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Libya’s energy sector is attracting increased foreign buyers as Gulf supplies tighten, pushing countries like Italy and Germany to seek alternatives.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Export terminals and oil fields remain underdeveloped; Gulf investment could help upgrade infrastructure and boost exports.

EAST AFRICA: Sudanese Pound Rebounds on Parallel Market

WHAT HAPPENED?

After hitting a record low of 4,700 pounds to the dollar, the Sudanese pound rebounded following the central bank and government’s decision to take over petroleum product imports.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Key infrastructure like the al-Jaili refinery has gone largely inactive amid the war, and the Iran crisis has intensified energy pressure, accelerating Sudan’s food crisis.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With Saudi Arabia and Qatar eyeing a return to the Sudanese market, organizations will watch closely to see if the economic situation stabilizes, shaping their investment strategies.

CENTRAL AFRICA: DR Congo Urges Release of Mineral Mapping Documents

WHAT HAPPENED?

Congo’s Minister of Mines met with Belgian and EU officials to discuss digitizing mineral deposit maps held at Belgium’s Royal Museum for Central Africa.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The DRC is a centerpiece of the ongoing race for critical minerals, rich in cobalt and copper. Its efforts are conducted alongside Bill Gates-backed KoBold Metals, reflecting a broader trend of AI-driven mineral tracking.

WHAT’S NEXT?

A joint digitization framework was agreed upon. For Gulf mining organizations operating in the DRC, access to these records could unlock new market opportunities.

WEST AFRICA: Dangote Refinery Valued at $39.1 Billion

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery has been valued at $39.1 billion through a private placement seeking to raise roughly $1 billion ahead of a public listing.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As Gulf oil supplies tighten, European demand for Dangote’s capacity has surged. The fundraising effort has reportedly attracted over $2 billion in demand, underscoring strong investor interest.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With the UAE deepening commercial ties with Nigeria, GCC investors may emerge as key players in the private placement.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: IMF Devising Debt Relief Strategies for Mozambique

WHAT HAPPENED?

The IMF completed a week-long mission to Mozambique, finding that despite gradual recovery, the country faces significant financial hurdles, particularly high debt levels.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Mozambique is emerging as a global hub for floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG), with Qatar alone committing $20 billion. A prolonged debt crisis risks dampening Gulf investor confidence.

WHAT’S NEXT?

GCC states will monitor Mozambique’s IMF collaboration closely to determine their own market entry strategies in Maputo.

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NORTH AFRICA: Egypt Suez Canal Traffic Surges

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Suez Canal experienced an increase in the number of oil tankers in April, up 14% from the same period last year, attributed to shipping companies traversing away from the Strait of Hormuz.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Suez Canal represents one of the most strategically important maritime trade routes and a critical revenue stream for Egypt, serving as a cushion for the country’s ongoing economic stresses.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Shipping companies are likely to remain uncertain even if a ceasefire with Iran is secured; Tehran has also signaled its intent to exert control over the Hormuz long-term, driving more maritime profits to Cairo.

EAST AFRICA: Ethiopia spending to rise next fiscal year

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ethiopian Finance Minister Ahmed Shide announced that overall spending will rise in the 2026/27 fiscal year from 1.92 trillion birr ($12.92 billion) to roughly 2.34 trillion birr ($14.69 billion), attributed to the ripple effects of the Iran war.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Ethiopia remains a cornerstone for Gulf investments in East Africa; sustained fiscal pressure may deter further GCC collaboration.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Ethiopia is likely to accelerate its ongoing bond restructuring efforts to limit further fiscal pressure.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Chinese Cobalt Production Plummets

WHAT HAPPENED?

Financial Times reported a fall in cobalt metal production by China since the beginning of last year, dropping from over 80% refining capacity utilization to under 20%, attributed to export curbs on mined cobalt hydroxide by the Democratic Republic of Congo.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Cobalt hydroxide remains fundamental to modern technologies such as batteries; limited supply coupled with soaring input costs will likely drive rising end-product prices.

WHAT’S NEXT?

For Gulf mining organizations, China’s production fall represents an opportunity to deepen its mining foothold, but also serves as a warning sign for market entry.

WEST AFRICA: IMF Cautions of $5 Billion Nigeria-UAE Derivatives Agreement

WHAT HAPPENED?

The IMF has alerted Nigeria against its derivatives agreement with First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), under which FAB will lend Nigeria $5 billion to cut borrowing costs, citing transparency concerns.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Nigeria is emerging as the critical node in the UAE’s growing West African commercial footprint. A pivot away could decelerate the Emirates’ strategy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Although the IMF has argued for Nigeria to issue eurobonds instead, Abuja is likely to proceed with the agreement following its Senate approval in April.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Zambia Obtains Bondholder Backing for $1.36 Billion Eurobond

WHAT HAPPENED?

Zambia has passed the 75% participation mark needed to repurchase its $1.36 billion Eurobond, made possible in part by a $600 million loan from the African Development Bank.

WHY IT MATTERS?

After defaulting on sovereign debt in 2020, this effort marks a significant acceleration in Zambia’s debt restructuring and could act as a model for other African states such as Ethiopia.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The move will reduce uncertainty for Gulf investors looking to partner with Zambia, particularly in its copper-rich mining sector.

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NORTH AFRICA: Morocco Seeks $540 Million Bond for Green Energy Expansion

WHAT HAPPENED?

Office Chérifien des Phosphates (OCP) Group, a Moroccan-state owned phosphate producer, is raising a bond worth MAD 5 billion ($540 million) to invest in new green energy projects.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Morocco holds roughly 70% of the world’s supply of phosphate, a tool increasingly important for both food security and emerging technologies. The Kingdom hopes to cultivate this resource wealth into a more profitable revenue stream.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Investors in the Gulf states may offer financing support in exchange for higher phosphate imports, as they aim to strengthen their food security.

EAST AFRICA: M-Pesa Integrating Blockchain Payments with UAE Backing

WHAT HAPPENED?

M-Pesa Africa, one of the continent’s leading money transfer services based in Nairobi, will incorporate blockchain infrastructure into its platform in collaboration with Abu Dhabi-based ADI Foundation.

WHY IT MATTERS?

M-Pesa remains heavily dependent on banks and correspondent networks across several markets, delaying transactions. Blockchain deployment can accelerate such exchanges.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The ADI partnership reflects a wider UAE trend of deploying blockchain into existing transactions. Abu Dhabi may be signaling its intent to expand that deployment beyond its borders.

CENTRAL AFRICA: CMOC Offers Bonus Package to End Workers’ Strike

WHAT HAPPENED?

CMOC Group Limited, a Chinese mining company overseeing the Tenke Fungureme Mine (TFM) in Kinshasa, has proposed a bonus package to workers to end an ongoing strike.

WHY IT MATTERS?

TFM is one of the most lucrative copper and cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Sustained strikes could delay key mining operations and reduce regional copper-cobalt supply.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf mining organizations expanding in the DRC will closely watch CMOC’s response to inform their own strategies when facing workers’ strikes.

WEST AFRICA: Nigeria Stock Market Falls $3.6 Billion

WHAT HAPPENED?

After months of strong performance, the Nigerian stock market closed its first trading week in June in the negative. A surge of profit-taking cleared N4.9 trillion ($3.6 billion) from the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX).

WHY IT MATTERS?

The NGX is Africa’s highest growth stock market, having recently overtaken Morocco to become the continent’s second largest. The rapid selloff may increase uncertainty for foreign investors in the Gulf.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With GCC countries bridging closer ties with Nigeria and Aliko Dangote intending to list his refinery on the market, investors will watch whether NGX’s rapid growth is met with sustained volatility.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Mozambique Scores $1 Billion FLNG Contract

WHAT HAPPENED?

Mozambique Rovuma Venture (MRV) will collaborate with French Technip Energies on the Coral Norte floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) project, worth $1.14 billion.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Mozambique holds some of the world’s largest LNG reserves, with Coral Norte expected to produce 3.6 million tonnes annually. The global shift toward FLNG has accelerated energy investment in the country.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf energy investors and SMEs may increasingly engage with Mozambique as part of this trend, including through infrastructure support or securing a stake in MRV.

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NORTH AFRICA: Algeria Commences Construction of its Pipeline Section

WHAT HAPPENED?

Algeria has begun construction on its 1,210 kilometer section of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, a 4,128 kilometer project transiting Nigerian gas through Niger to European markets, with capacity for up to 30 billion cubic meters annually.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Algeria supplies ~12% of EU gas imports. European interest has surged since Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion disrupted energy supplies, making the pipeline increasingly strategic for Algerian export revenues.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With the EU targeting an end to Russian gas imports by 2027, the pipeline’s importance grows. Morocco is separately pursuing a rival pipeline with Nigeria.

EAST AFRICA: Tanzania’s Hassan Makes the Case for Foreign Investment

WHAT HAPPENED?

Tanzanian President Hassan pitched Tanzania as a manufacturing and logistics hub at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, presenting the multibillion-dollar Bagamoyo Special Economic Zone to investors and President Putin.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Hassan has pursued investment from Western, Russian, Chinese, and Gulf sources. Gulf investment remains modest—Saudi Arabia and the UAE have combined investments of $841.8 million—but Bagamoyo could attract greater GCC spending.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Hassan will continue attending similar international forums to court capital, while Gulf investors watch closely to see whether Bagamoyo’s potential is realized.

CENTRAL AFRICA: US Launches New Sanctions on Commanders in Eastern DRC

WHAT HAPPENED?

The US sanctioned intelligence commanders John Imani Nzenze of M23 and Gustave Kubwayo of FDLR for human rights abuses and regional destabilisation in eastern DRC.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The sanctions target assets linked to both commanders. Given their groups’ roles in critical minerals supply chains, this raises risk and compliance concerns for Gulf actors operating in the region.

WHAT’S NEXT?

GCC mining companies must update risk assessments and compliance frameworks to align with the new US sanctions.

WEST AFRICA: Nigeria-UAE Trade Tops $4.8 Billion

WHAT HAPPENED?

UAE Minister of Foreign Trade Al Zeyoudi named Nigeria a cornerstone of Emirati investment in Africa in an interview with BusinessDay, with bilateral trade reaching $4.8 billion in 2025.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As the UAE expands beyond its traditional Northeast Africa focus, Nigeria has emerged as the linchpin of its West Africa strategy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With Nigeria launching new energy and infrastructure projects, commercial ties with the UAE are set to deepen across both sectors.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Botswana, UAE, and Oman Discuss De Beers Acquisition

WHAT HAPPENED?

Botswana is seeking a strategic stake in De Beers and is in talks with Emirati and Omani investors to finance the acquisition.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As the world’s second-largest diamond producer—with 29.5 million carats in 2025—increasing Botswana’s current 15% De Beers stake would significantly elevate its role in global diamond supply chains.

WHAT’S NEXT?

In exchange for financing, the UAE and Oman will likely seek increased diamond exports, particularly as their supplies face pressure amid the Iran conflict.

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NORTH AFRICA: Egypt Scores $355M Gas Contract in Oman

WHAT HAPPENED?

Enppi, an Egyptian gas company 97% owned by the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation, secured a $355 million deal with Oman. Awarded by Petroleum Development Oman, the contract provides Enppi with facility construction rights in Budour, located in the Dhofar region.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The contract marks another key advancement in Egypt’s energy sector this year and is part of a wider Omani effort to drive growth and job creation in 2026.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The project concludes within 26 months and aims to increase production at Budour from 1.4 million to 4.2 million standard cubic metres per day.

EAST AFRICA: Kenya Proposes 15% Capital Gains Tax on Foreign Investors

WHAT HAPPENED?

Kenya’s Finance Bill 2026 proposed a 15% capital gains tax on indirect share transfers, targeting offshore exit structures commonly used by foreign investors.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As East Africa’s largest economy, Kenya has attracted significant Gulf investment: Saudi Arabia and the UAE have invested a combined $990.5 million. The proposed tax could discourage future flows.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The GCC is unlikely to abandon Kenya entirely, but investment strategies focused on Nairobi will undergo reassessment to account for the proposed tax.

CENTRAL AFRICA: DRC Reclassifies Critical Minerals, 10% Royalty Rate

WHAT HAPPENED?

The DRC listed lithium, tantalum, niobium, tungsten, uranium, and rare earth elements as strategic minerals, resulting in a 10% royalty fee on their mining.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The DRC is the world’s largest cobalt producer and has attracted substantial Gulf investment. Abu Dhabi-based International Resources Holding (IRH), which holds a 56% stake in the Bisie tin mine, will likely need to revise its cost projections.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The higher royalty fee is unlikely to deter Gulf mining operations, especially as the race for critical minerals becomes increasingly geopolitical.

WEST AFRICA: Ghana Inflation Rose to 3.7% in May

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ghana’s inflation rose for the second consecutive month, from 3.4% in April to 3.7% in May, largely driven by Iran-driven higher energy prices.

WHY IT MATTERS?

With an IMF-projected GDP growth of 4.8%, Ghana has grown as an investment destination. Qatar signed a $1.5 billion agricultural deal last August, but inflationary pressures are likely to deter further investment short term.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf countries will watch closely as Ghana battles the Iran war’s economic pressures. If stability holds, renewed investment appetite is likely post-war.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Zambia Extends Debt Suspension on Copper Concentrates

WHAT HAPPENED?

Zambia extended its suspension of the 10% export duty on copper concentrates until September 30, allowing miners to export without the levy.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The exemption covers 271,742 metric tons. The largest allocation went to Mopani Copper Mines, jointly owned by Zambia and the UAE through IRH, which received a 100,000 ton duty-free quota.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Mopani’s allocation highlights the growing role of Gulf capital in Zambia’s mining sector. As Lusaka pursues investment reforms, favorable policies for Gulf actors are likely to follow.

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NORTH AFRICA: Algeria’s $7 Billion Phosphate Project to Conclude in 2027

WHAT HAPPENED?

Algeria announced that its $7 billion Integrated Phosphate Project concludes next year, boosting annual output from 2.5 million to 10.5 million tonnes.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The initiative leverages Algeria’s hydrocarbon wealth as Europe seeks diverse energy suppliers. Algeria holds 3 billion tonnes of phosphate, ranking sixth-largest globally in 2024.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With 90% of phosphate used in food production, Gulf states investing heavily in agricultural assets for food security view this expansion as a prime investment pathway.

EAST AFRICA: Ethiopian Debt Restructuring Encounters Friction

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ethiopia’s attempt to restructure its defaulted $1 billion Eurobond stalled after a bondholder committee rejected the government’s revised proposal.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Ethiopia is a vital hub for East African Gulf investments, with the UAE alone deploying $2.3 billion. Restructuring woes will likely increase Ethiopia’s illiquidity risk scores for GCC decision-makers.

WHAT’S NEXT?

These struggles highlight the difficulty of balancing diverse creditors under the G20 Common Framework. Consequently, Gulf entities may favor faster bilateral lending over global frameworks.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Cameroon Receives Infrastructure Upgrade via Egyptian Dynasty

WHAT HAPPENED?

Egypt’s Elsewedy Electric partnered with Algerian Sonelgaz to expand into Central Africa, targeting renewable energy, logistics, and digital infrastructure in Cameroon.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Cameroon has long been dominated by French corporations and West African conglomerates. Elsewedy’s entrance disrupts this monopoly, opening Cameroon to broader foreign investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

This shift allows the Gulf to increase capital deployment. Elsewedy’s established GCC presence–operating six factories–acts as a strategic gateway for Gulf firms entering Cameroon.

WEST AFRICA: Nigerian Cooking Gas Prices Rise Despite Local Supply

WHAT HAPPENED?

Despite local refineries aiming to meet 100% of domestic demand, Nigerian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices spiked, reaching N2,000 ($1.46) per kilogram in key regions.

WHY IT MATTERS?

This highlights an energy paradox: while the Dangote Refinery boosts global trade standing, downstream distribution remains crippled by costly coastal shipping and degraded road networks.

WHAT’S NEXT?

This bottleneck represents a critical infrastructure gap. Investing in midstream logistical infrastructure to streamline gas transport could become a cornerstone of future GCC investments.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: EU Mobilizes $14 Billion Pledge for South African Minerals

WHAT HAPPENED?

The EU hosted an investment roadshow in South Africa to launch a €12 billion ($13.98 billion) investment package focused on critical minerals.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Facing competition with China, the EU is prioritizing critical mineral supply chains. Holding over $2.5 trillion in ore reserves, South Africa is the primary target.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Trade Minister Parks Tau emphasized that the objective is local industrial processing, not raw mineral export. The GCC can deepen ties by funding this required processing infrastructure.

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NORTH AFRICA: Morocco Overtakes South Africa as Africa’s Top Industrial Economy

WHAT HAPPENED?

The AfDB’s Africa Industrialization Index 2025 placed Morocco ahead of South Africa as the continent’s leading industrial economy, scoring 0.8415 against 0.8396, reflecting a decade of industrial upgrading and export diversification.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Morocco’s position bridging Africa, Europe, and the Middle East has made it a credible manufacturing hub, increasingly cited as a top emerging market for continental investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf SMEs can leverage Morocco’s industrial base as a gateway into North African and Southern European markets.

EAST AFRICA: Kenyan Inflation Accelerates Due to Iran War

WHAT HAPPENED?

Kenya’s inflation climbed to 6.7% in May from 5.6% in April, a two-year high, as Iran conflict-driven energy prices pushed transport costs up 16.5%, food prices up 9.4%, and fuel-related housing costs up 3.4%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Kenya is a major Gulf investment destination, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE having collectively deployed $990.5 million. Elevated currency risk and weakening consumer spending now complicate the investment case.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf SMEs in retail and hospitality are likely to recalibrate market entry as consumers tighten spending.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Moody’s Raises Congo Fiscal Outlook

WHAT HAPPENED?

Moody’s upgraded Congo’s sovereign outlook to positive from stable, affirming its Caa2 rating, after the country raised nearly $2.5 billion across four international bond transactions between November 2025 and May 2026.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Oil and gas account for 40% of GDP and 90% of exports. Elevated crude prices and a $2 billion energy gateway initiative are strengthening Congo’s fiscal position.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf energy companies have growing partnership opportunities, though debt at 98% of GDP and weak cash management mean risks remain material.

WEST AFRICA: Dangote Refinery Emerges as World’s Largest Jet Fuel Exporter

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery became the world’s largest jet fuel exporter in April 2026, shipping 158,000 barrels per day—a 770% increase from 18,000 bpd in 2024—as Middle East disruptions rerouted global aviation fuel demand.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Lagos cargoes reach European ports in half the time of Gulf routes, challenging Gulf refiners’ market share. A $10 billion expansion and potential IPO signal long-term global ambitions.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The IPO offers Gulf investors early exposure to a fast-rising competitor, while Gulf refiners must reassess their European market logistics economics.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: South Africa Hikes Interest Rate

WHAT HAPPENED?

The SARB raised its repo rate 25 basis points to 7% on May 29, its first hike since 2023, after inflation jumped from 3.1% to 4.0% in April on Middle East-linked energy shocks, while cutting its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Despite a $479.96 billion GDP, South Africa faces compounding pressures from high unemployment, rising inflation, and tightening monetary conditions, deterring Gulf foreign investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf investors are recalibrating exposure as currency risks rise, with the SARB flagging up to three further hikes in worst-case scenarios.

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NORTH AFRICA: Libya and Turkey Strengthen Energy Ties

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libyan Oil and Gas Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq and Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar held bilateral talks at the 2026 Natural Resources Summit in Istanbul, focused on expanding investment partnerships between energy companies.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Turkey imports roughly 13% of its annual gas from Iran, and the ongoing crisis has pushed Ankara to seek alternatives. Given Turkey’s longstanding involvement in Libya, Tripoli is a natural fit.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Egypt and Gulf states are expected to likewise deepen ties with Libya as it seeks foreign investment to rebuild its energy infrastructure.

EAST AFRICA: Somalia and Turkey Sign Mining Agreement

WHAT HAPPENED?

Somali Energy Minister Dahir Shire Mohamed announced that Somalia is seeking to expand its partnership with Turkey into critical minerals, with discussions in Istanbul focused on updating a 2016 mining MoU.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Somalia holds roughly 10,200 tons of uranium. Turkey is eyeing this wealth to advance ties with Mogadishu and accelerate its energy transition.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Somalia-Somaliland dispute is becoming integral to the Turkey-Israel rivalry. Israel is likely to respond by expanding mining ties with Somaliland, which holds untapped lithium, chromium, and nickel.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Jinchuan Uncovers $145 Million Fraud in the DRC

WHAT HAPPENED?

Jinchuan Group International Resources discovered $145 million was siphoned from its DRC copper and cobalt operations; $137.4 million in payments to 12 suspect suppliers and $7.1 million transferred to a former employee’s personal bank account.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The DRC’s mineral wealth remains largely unregulated, enabling misconduct. As more mining companies expand there, stronger internal controls will be critical to sustaining investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf states eyeing the DRC market will likely use this case as a basis for improved compliance frameworks in volatile environments.

WEST AFRICA: Turkey Bets on Nigerian Mines

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigeria and Turkey signed an MoU at the Natural Resources Summit on solid mineral development, with Nigeria set to leverage Turkish mining technology for exploration activities.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Nigeria has been positioning itself as a mining hub for Europe, and deepening ties with Turkey–which is expanding its African footprint–furthers that goal.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Mine insecurity remains a challenge; over 300 illegal operators have been arrested since Nigeria created its Mining Marshals. GCC countries will watch how Turkey navigates this to inform their own strategies.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Iranian War Weighs on South African Rand

WHAT HAPPENED?

The rand fell 0.3% to 16.3375 against the dollar after Secretary of State Marco Rubio admitted a deal with Tehran would “take a few days,” pushing Brent crude futures up 2%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

South Africa was on track for fiscal growth this year, but Iran-driven stress is threatening that trajectory and may deter foreign investment in the continent’s largest economy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Reserve Bank announces its rate decision Thursday, with economists expecting a 25 basis point hike. Gulf investors will monitor how Pretoria manages the pressure to guide their own strategies.

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EGYPT: Western Desert Energy Reserves Discovered

WHAT HAPPENED?

Egypt announced the discovery of an oil and natural gas well in the Western Desert. The well has an estimated reserve of 330 billion cubic feet of gas and 10 million barrels of crude oil, marking it as the largest discovery in 15 years by the Agiba Petroleum Company.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Cairo has made significant strides to reduce its reliance on foreign energy supplies and become a net exporter once again. This recent discovery will help to accelerate that push, particularly as the Iran crisis strains Egypt’s oil import routes.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Further exploration is to be conducted, along with drilling of 101 oil and gas wells this year per a $5.7 billion government program. Gulf energy organizations are likely to find strategic partnership opportunities in Egypt as part of this investment.

ETHIOPIA: Addis Ababa Accuses Cairo of Blocking Its Red Sea Bid

WHAT HAPPENED?

In a statement issued last Thursday, the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry accused Egypt of making efforts to “obstruct” Addis Ababa’s attempts to gain Red Sea access, which the Ministry reiterated remains a top priority.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Ethiopia’s push to secure maritime reach to the Red Sea has elevated tensions between it and its neighbors, while Egypt remains concerned over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s implications for Cairo’s Nile water supply. The Iran war is heightening these tensions; Business Insider Africa reports of three vessels bound for Ethiopia holding 120,000 metric tonnes of diesel being stranded in the Gulf, deepening the government’s desire for maritime access.

WHAT’S NEXT?

If the Iran war concludes amid continuing peace talks between Tehran and Washington, GCC states can leverage their deep political and investment ties with both Ethiopia and Egypt to secure a longstanding settlement.

UGANDA: Central Bank Reduces Liquidity As Iran War Ensues

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Bank of Uganda (BoU) raised its Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) from 9.5% to 11%, as the ongoing global energy crisis pressures the country’s currency. The CRR represents a segment of customer deposits commercial banks hold in reserve with the central bank.

WHY IT MATTERS?

According to EHS Africa Logistics, Uganda’s real GDP is forecast to grow at a 6.6% CAGR from 2024 to 2029, making it a top growing emerging market. Yet as a landlocked country, it remains fiscally vulnerable to maritime trade shocks, impeding its growth.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Iran war is likely to push Kampala to accelerate its energy transition and establish new trade maritime routes, opening up investment opportunities for the Gulf.

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NIGERIA: Dangote Refinery Gears Up for $100 Million IPO

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigerian tycoon and Chairman of First HoldCo Plc, Femi Otedola, announced he will invest $100 million in the upcoming initial public offering (IPO) of the Dangote Oil Refinery in Nigeria.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Dangote Refinery is among Africa’s most significant industrial projects and a key venture toward resource self-sufficiency. Its IPO and mounting investor interest from figures like Otedola reflect the refinery’s potential as a financial magnet for foreign investment in West Africa.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Otedola’s investment will be allocated ahead of the IPO via private placement. With the refinery valued at close to $50 billion, Gulf investors may see value in contributing to the project as Northwest Africa positions itself as an alternative energy supplier to Europe.

ETHIOPIA: Dangote Secures Pipeline Deal With Djibouti

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH) and the Dangote Group gained approval for a pipeline project connecting Ethiopia to Djibouti. The first phase will construct a pipeline for refined crude oil connecting the port of Djibouti to Dawale in southeastern Ethiopia. The second phase will extend a pipeline for natural gas and crude oil through Ethiopia’s Somali region.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Ethiopia is the world’s most populous landlocked country, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has made gaining maritime access a central economic priority, putting the country at odds with its neighbors. Dangote’s pipeline project offers new trade routes while potentially easing tensions between Addis Ababa and its bordering states.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Ethiopia has become a cornerstone of the GCC’s deepening ties with East Africa, with the UAE investing $2.3 billion in the country in recent years. Dangote’s growing presence in the region could pave the way for collaboration between the Dangote Group and GCC sovereign wealth funds.

TANZANIA: Rare Earth Deposits Discovered in Collaboration with China

WHAT HAPPENED?

Tanzania announced newly discovered rare earth mineral deposits in its southern Ludewa District of Njombe Region. The deposit contains neodymium and praseodymium–critical minerals used in technologies ranging from smartphones to artificial intelligence–explored jointly by the Tanzanian government and Chinese firm Hongji Mining Co. Ltd.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The discovery elevates Tanzania’s strategic importance in the global race for critical minerals and is likely to draw greater mining investment toward Tanzania and East Africa broadly.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Tanzania has received relatively modest Gulf investment, having received a total of $736.8 million from the UAE. As GCC engagement in African mining grows, investors and policymakers in Abu Dhabi and across the Gulf may eye closer collaboration with Tanzania moving forward.

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SOUTH AFRICA: $5.8 Billion Hydrogen Project Moves Closer to Production

WHAT HAPPENED?

South Africa’s flagship clean energy project, Hive Hydrogen, selected a $1 billion electrolyzer and ammonia production solution able to produce one million tonnes of green ammonia annually. The project, worth $5.8 billion, will be powered by both wind and solar energy, reducing electricity expenses by 25%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Green ammonia has increasingly become an important maritime fuel source and is a core focus of various hydrogen projects worldwide, of which the Hydrogen Council and McKinsey estimate to be over 500. South Africa’s recent move positions it as a leading hydrogen powerhouse in Africa.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Pretoria hopes that the project will open up new investment opportunities, providing pathways for Gulf investors to collaborate. The UAE in particular has much to gain; with Abu Dhabi emerging as a leading investor in South Africa’s maritime sector, the shipping value provided by Hive Hydrogen may deepen its maritime partnership with Pretoria.

DR CONGO: Government-Backed Incursion In Cobalt Deposit

WHAT HAPPENED?

Congolese businessman Fatou Ntete Etumba launched a takeover of a large section of Eurasian Resources Group’s cobalt deposit near the city of Kolwezi. Etumba claimed that he received government authorization to do so, with the aim of cleaning up the surrounding river basin. ERG however has described the incursion as an “illegal invasion”, according to Bloomberg.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Despite the DR Congo’s vast mineral wealth, the country’s rich deposits are also fraught with insecurity, a trend seen elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa. For Gulf mining companies, it highlights the significance of security initiatives tied to investments. The UAE, for instance, is reportedly backing a security force in DR Congo to protect mines.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf investors are likely to watch the incident unfold to guide their own security assessments regarding future mining projects and investments in DR Congo and elsewhere in the region.

NIGER: Government Secures 45% State in China-Backed Pipeline

WHAT HAPPENED?

After rounds of negotiations, the government of Niger gained a 45% stake in the West African Oil Pipeline Company, the organization which oversees the Niger-Benin crude export pipeline, majority-owned by China.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The move secures greater export revenues to Niger, serving as a strategic income stream for a military regime that still remains largely internationally isolated. The move also marks the wider trend of West African governments asserting greater control over their natural resources and the adjoining infrastructure.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Such steps toward resource nationalism will still remain unrealized without the supporting infrastructure to tap into resources. As Niger and other West African countries seek to diversify partners beyond Russia and China, the Gulf states are positioned well to provide backing.

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