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UAE: Exiting OPEC

WHAT HAPPENED?

The UAE officially announced on Tuesday that it will be withdrawing from both OPEC and OPEC+, after nearly five decades. The withdrawal will become effective May 1. The UAE cited its own national interests as a key driver for the decision. Abu Dhabi stated that it would continue to bring “additional production” of oil matched with market demand and conditions.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As the world’s seventh largest oil exporter, the UAE has been a key player in global energy markets, currently facing their deepest crisis due to the Iran conflict. The UAE’s withdrawal is likely to spark short-term uncertainty among energy investors worldwide, already heightened due to the Strait of Hormuz’s closure.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Expect official statements from the UAE and OPEC regarding how the withdrawal may shape both Abu Dhabi’s energy policy and OPEC as an organization.

IRAN: War Disrupts Pistachio Supplies, Soaring Prices Upward

WHAT HAPPENED?

A report from the Financial Times noted pistachio prices having reached an all-time high of $4.57 a pound in March, the highest since 2018. The ongoing war in Iran threatens to push prices upward, given that Iran is a leading exporter of pistachio.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Pistachio has seen significant demand worldwide in part due to the Dubai chocolate trend, chocolate bars filled with pistachio cream. Pistachio is also a key input for other highly demanded foods, such as ice cream. The continuation of the Iran war threatens to cut supplies for pistachio and in turn raise prices for end consumers.

WHAT’S NEXT?

While importers are turning to suppliers such as those in the US, Iranian pistachios are noted for their high concentration of oil, significantly impacting the taste. With the summer time approaching, during which demand for pistachio-related products typically rise, prices are likely to follow suit.

IRAQ: $5 Billion Oil Pipeline Project with China

WHAT HAPPENED?

Iraq announced it will be awarding a $5 billion oil pipeline project to a consortium of Chinese organizations. Known as the Basra-Haditha pipeline, the project was initially agreed to as part of the wider oil-for-projects agreement signed between Baghdad and Beijing in 2019.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Prior to the Hormuz’s closure, Iraq was exporting close to 3.4 million barrels daily via the waterway. With its closure, a key pillar of the country’s economy is under threat, prompting Baghdad to explore alternative energy supply chains.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Basra-Haditha pipeline will carry crude to Turkey, Syria, and Jordan. Officials and investors in these neighboring states will pay close attention to new developments in the agreement given their desire for alternative energy sources.

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NIGERIA: Dangote Refinery Eyes Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda as Export Markets

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigerian billionaire and Africa’s wealthiest man, Aliko Dangote, is aiming to export oil to East Africa from his Dangote Refinery. Located in Lagos and with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the aim is to act as a new supplier of oil to Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.

WHY IT MATTERS?

East Africa has felt the reeling pressure of the Iran crisis given the region’s reliance on Gulf oil imports. Dangote’s market entry in the region not only offers a new energy supply line, but could save import costs. Kenya, for instance, spent roughly $4.8 billion last fiscal year on fuel imports according to Streamline, a figure which could be lowered through internal African imports.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Pipeline systems in Mombasa and Dar es Salaam are geared toward specific international standards; Dangote’s offer must meet those requirements in order to avoid import limitations.

SIERRA LEONE: $225M Exploration Deal Unlocks Five Offshore Blocks

WHAT HAPPENED?

Sierra Leone signed a $225 million agreement with Nigerian Marginal Energy Limited. The agreement grants the organization oil exploration and development rights across five offshore blocks.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Sierra Leone is considered to have significant hydrocarbon potential, with estimates of 30 billion barrels, according to OilPrice. Yet that vast energy wealth has remained largely untapped, something which Freetown is aiming to reverse.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The timeline for the deal has yet to be publicized. Once released, an increasing number of both African and European energy investors are likely to watch closely to also make similar agreements with Sierra Leone.

ZAMBIA: $820M Lobito Railway Push Aims to Break China’s Grip on Copper

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Africa Finance Corporation and the African Development Bank have launched a joint investment of $500 million to the Lobito Atlantic Railway with a focus on transiting Zambian copper to global markets. The project is also receiving investment from Italy of $320 million.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Western-backed Lobito Corridor Project is seen as a critical initiative by the US and EU to counter China’s dominance of Africa’s mineral wealth. The recent investments signal Western-African cooperation in doing so, particularly as Zambia’s copper wealth becomes increasingly vital on the global stage.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Financial close is expected in quarter four of 2027, with the project helping to secure $3 billion for Zambia and Angola.

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MOROCCO: New LNG Terminals to Enhance Energy Security

WHAT HAPPENED?

Morocco announced plans to construct seven new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in an effort to diversify energy sources, accelerate low-carbon transition, and deepen energy security. Developing along the country’s coastlines, the terminals will be at the ports of Nador West Med, Tanger, Mohammedia, Jorf Lasfar, and Dakhla.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As a net energy importer, Morocco has faced strain due to the Iran crisis; earlier this month, the Kingdom saw fuel costs increase by roughly 30%. Construction of new LNG terminals will expand Rabat’s energy sources amid growing demand for gas.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The terminals will be connected to both strategic industrial hubs and the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline. Consequently, expect to see further energy projects across the Kingdom integrated with one another.

ZAMBIA: BHP Making an African Comeback with Copper Exploration

WHAT HAPPENED?

Global miner BHP is set to conduct large-scale copper exploration in Zambia. The announcement came from the Zambian Ministry of Mines and Minerals Development, which stated that BHP will target large copper deposits.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The announcement shows growing interest from both public and private actors in Africa’s mineral wealth. The move also marks BHP’s comeback in Africa following spinning off South32 in 2015.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As the second largest copper producer in the continent, Zambia is likely to see increasing interest from other mining organizations, particularly as copper demand rises, with an S&P Global report in January predicting a surge in demand of 50% by 2040.

SUDAN: Saudi Arabia Pauses Pakistan Arms Deal

WHAT HAPPENED?

Saudi Arabia has requested Pakistan to pause its $1.5 billion arms deal with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which includes ten Karakoram-8 light-attack aircraft, over 200 surveillance drones, and possibly additional JF-17 fighters. Saudi Arabia had initially agreed to finance the deal, according to Business Insider Africa.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The ongoing Iran crisis has led to Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia to reorient their defense priorities inwards to boost their security. For Pakistan, which has increasingly been eying African defense markets, the deal’s pause reflects a halt in that ambition.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The SAF will likely turn to other actors for aerial military support, particularly as the Rapid Support Forces heavily engage in drone warfare.

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ALGERIA: New Energy Tender As Markets Falter

WHAT HAPPENED?

Algeria has launched a global bidding round for oil and gas exploration across seven fields. According to Samir Bekhti, president of Algeria’s National Agency for the Valorization of Hydrocarbon Resources, there are over 1.8 billion barrels of oil and 8.63 billion cubic meters of natural gas across the seven fields.

WHY IT MATTERS?

With Gulf energy supply limited, Algeria is increasingly viewed as an alternative gas supplier, especially by Europe. With the Iran ceasefire shaky, energy markets will follow, intensifying oil investment in Algeria.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Western energy firms, particularly those in Italy and Spain—Algeria’s closest European partners in energy trade—are likely to make bids in the coming weeks as part of the tender, especially as the Iran crisis ensues.

OMAN: Investment Bank Launch in Angola

WHAT HAPPENED?

Oman has established a new investment bank in Angola. Titled the African Bank of Oman, the bank focuses on cross-border payments between Angola and the Middle East, particularly in gas and oil.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The bank represents another significant push by Oman to invest in Africa, diversifying GCC investments in the continent beyond Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It also aligns with Angola’s ongoing economic reforms which aim to secure foreign investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Details on the bank’s capitalization has yet to be disclosed. More information is to be expected in the coming weeks regarding cross-border transactions.

DRC: New Mining Capital Push

WHAT HAPPENED?

Rome Resources, the UK-based DRC-focused mining exploration company, announced fresh capital to extend drilling operations at Kalayi and explore new targets in Mont Agoma. The capital, worth about $1.6 million, was raised from existing shareholders.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The announcement marks another Western effort to entrench its foothold in the DRC’s mineral rich landscape. With the DRC’s mineral supply chains dominated by China, both the US and Europe are seeking to establish their own presence.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Chinese companies are likely to respond in kind by the increasing Western investments in DRC, heightening bid competitions across the country.

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IRAN: Tensions Are Up and Oil Prices With Them

WHAT HAPPENED?

The US attacked and seized an Iranian cargo ship traversing the Strait of Hormuz. The seizure was on the basis that the ship had violated the American blockade of Hormuz. In response, Iran has vowed retaliation in response “soon.” Crude oil prices have surged by close to 5% in response.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The seizure marks a significant uptick in tensions between the US and Iran as Pakistan aims to negotiate a lasting ceasefire to the conflict. While President Donald Trump has confirmed that the US will send delegations to Islamabad for further peace talks, Iran has ruled out any additional discussions.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Iran is unlikely to engage in additional discussions as the week unfolds, leaving both tensions and oil prices elevated.

MOROCCO: Europe’s New Energy Savior

WHAT HAPPENED?

Morocco and Nigeria are taking steps to sign an intergovernmental agreement which will finalize development plans for the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP), a $27 million project which will transport 30 billion cubic meters of oil across 13 different countries.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Europe’s energy outlook has been severely worsened by the Gulf crisis; the NMGP creates an alternative supplier for the EU to turn to while also providing Northwest African countries a new revenue stream. The pipeline also hedges against the Algeria-Niger pipeline, heightening the Algeria-Morocco rivalry.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As Morocco and Nigeria finalize the agreement, several European buyers–most notably Spain–will line up to ensure their stake in this oil project.

SOUTH AFRICA: America’s Critical Minerals Champion

WHAT HAPPENED?

The US is advancing a $50 million investment in South Africa’s Phalaborwa Rare Earths Project. Developed by the Rainbow Rare Earths in collaboration with the US Development Finance Corporation, the project will extract rare earths from two huge dunes in 2028 over the course of 16 years. The dunes are 35 million tons of phosphogypsum and contain rare earths such as neodymium and praseodymium.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The advancement marks a significant American push to secure critical minerals access in Africa, a sector long dominated by China. It also points to a major economic collaboration point between the US and South Africa, which have experienced strained relations since Trump took office.

WHAT’S NEXT?

China still maintains a close economic partnership with South Africa and could likely respond in kind with its own deal, suggesting that the race for critical minerals in Southern Africa is just getting started.

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GCC: Private Bond Deals on the Rise

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Financial Times reported that the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait have collectively raised nearly $10 billion through private bond sales since early April, their first international borrowing since the Iran crisis disrupted regional oil and gas revenues.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Gulf economies have remained largely resilient in spite of the war’s economic reverberations. However, continued disruption to oil supply chains remains a concern for Gulf policymakers and investors, heightening the need for alternative fundraising efforts.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Saudi Arabia, the Gulf’s largest sovereign borrower, has yet to tap post-war debt markets. Further bond issuances are plausible as states continue assessing the full economic and infrastructure damage from the conflict.

SUDAN: Three Years of War With No End in Sight

WHAT HAPPENED?

Germany hosted an international ministerial conference in Berlin to mobilize urgent humanitarian aid for Sudan, three years into a devastating civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Neither warring faction was invited; the focus was entirely on civilian needs.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Around 28.9 million people—nearly 62% of Sudan’s population—face acute food shortages and poverty has almost doubled since the war began. Yet global funding remains critically short, with a €2.2 billion ($2.6 billion) gap in last year’s humanitarian plan amid widespread donor budget cuts.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With some Sudanese groups boycotting the conference and no peace talks on the horizon, fresh pledges will be crucial, but translating commitments into fully funded relief remains the central challenge.

BOTSWANA: The Gulf’s New Mineral Partner

WHAT HAPPENED?

Botswana President Duma Boko and Oman Sultan Haitham bin Tariq formalized a set of bilateral agreements covering renewable energy, mineral exploration, and infrastructure, the most significant being a 500 megawatt solar plant and a joint mining exploration deal targeting copper, gold, graphite, and iron ore.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Diamonds account for roughly a third of Botswana’s GDP, yet the industry is under growing pressure from lab-grown alternatives and weakening global demand. These deals represent a concrete step toward reducing that dependency and securing new growth engines in energy and diversified mining. It also represents another step forward in the Gulf’s investments in Africa’s mining sector.

WHAT’S NEXT?

President Boko has been stepping up outreach to international investors, including a recent visit to France to promote Botswana’s investment potential. No financial values were disclosed for the Oman deals, so the scale of actual investment flows will be the key thing to watch.

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TURKEY: Seizing the Maritime Moment

WHAT HAPPENED?

Turkey is pressing ahead with the £20 billion (~$1.27 billion) Istanbul Canal, an artificial waterway connecting the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara that would allow Ankara to charge shipping tolls. The move comes as Iran seeks to levy fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Per international law, artificial canals like the Suez Canal can legally charge tolls, in contrast to natural straits. Turkey’s canal would exploit this legal distinction just as shipping disruptions are already adding 10-15 days to Asia-Europe journeys.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Istanbul Canal is targeted for completion by 2027. Morocco, Spain, and others are eyeing similar toll-corridor opportunities around the Strait of Gibraltar, signaling a broader race to monetize strategic shipping routes.

NIGERIA: From Regional to Continental Oil Giant

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigerian billionaire and founder of the Dangote Oil Refinery, Aliko Dangote, is planning a pan-African IPO for the refinery, with shares available to Nigerian investors within months. The listing would span multiple African stock exchanges, a continental first, with Stanbic IBTC Capital, Vetiva Advisory Services, and FirstCap appointed as advisors.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The move would mark a historic milestone for African capital markets, potentially boosting stock exchanges across the continent. It opens Africa’s largest refinery—currently capable of processing 650,000 barrels a day and aiming for 1.4 million in the future—to broad public ownership for the first time.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Dangote plans to sell at least 5% initially, with shares offered incrementally based on investor appetite. Longer term, he aims to expand refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, with no firm cap placed on how much equity could eventually be publicly held.

CONGO: Making Energy Gains While the World Makes Energy Losses

WHAT HAPPENED?

TotalEnergies announced a hydrocarbon discovery on the Moho license offshore the Republic of Congo. The MHNM-6 exploration well encountered a roughly 160-meter hydrocarbon column in high-quality Albian reservoirs.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Combined with a prior discovery on the nearby Moho F structure, recoverable resources total an estimated 100 million barrels. Its proximity to existing infrastructure makes development cost-effective and fast-tracked.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The resources are planned to be developed as a tie-back to the existing Moho Floating Production Units, Alima and Likouf, leveraging current infrastructure to bring production online efficiently.

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IRAN: Pakistan Talks Fall Short

WHAT HAPPENED?

The US and Iran held 21-hour direct talks in Islamabad, their first since 1979, but failed to reach a deal to end their five-week war, with no further negotiations scheduled.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil and gas passes, remains effectively closed, sustaining a major energy crisis with serious worldwide economic consequences. President Donald Trump has announced that the US will launch a blockade of the Hormuz, in response to Iran’s closure.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The fragile ceasefire brokered by Pakistan hangs in the balance. Vance has tabled what he calls America’s “final and best offer,” but with deep mistrust on both sides, a durable resolution looks distant.

UGANDA: Threatens Iran and Turkey

WHAT HAPPENED?

Uganda’s Chief of Defense Forces, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, son of President Yoweri Museveni, threatened to sever all diplomatic ties with Turkey within 30 days, demanding at least $1 billion from Ankara. He also pledged to deploy 100,000 Ugandan troops to fight alongside Israel against Iran.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Uganda framed the $1 billion as a long-overdue security dividend for nearly two decades of military commitment in Somalia, where Ugandan troops bore significant casualties while Turkey profited from the stability they helped create.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Kainerugaba’s statements have previously forced the Ugandan government to publicly distance itself from his remarks and that pattern may repeat. No official response has yet emerged from Ankara or Uganda’s foreign ministry.

SUDAN: RSF Official Defects to Army

WHAT HAPPENED?

Senior RSF Major General Al-Nour Ahmed Adam, also known as “Guba”, defected to the Sudanese army, reportedly taking 136 combat vehicles with him. The move follows internal friction after the RSF leadership passed him over for the North Darfur command role following the fall of El Fasher in October 2025.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The defection signals deepening fractures within the RSF, with senior commanders citing favoritism, supply shortages, and discriminatory treatment of wounded fighters. A retired general described it as a “painful blow” to the RSF’s morale and tactical balance.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Observers draw parallels with the 2024 defection of Abu Agla Keikel, which helped the army recapture territory in Gezira State, suggesting Guba’s switch could similarly shift the military balance in North Darfur.

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IRAN: The Hormuz King

WHAT HAPPENED?

The US-Iran ceasefire has failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Ship traffic fell to just four vessels on Wednesday, against a pre-war average of ~140 daily, with over 900 merchant vessels stranded in the Gulf. Iran is demanding approval rights and fees of up to $2 million per vessel in cryptocurrency to permit transit.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Around a fifth of global oil and gas supplies flow through the strait. The Iranian toll scheme creates a sanctions trap for Western shipowners: paying Iran potentially violates US sanctions, while refusing keeps vessels stuck. Insurance costs remain elevated and the US government has yet to provide legal clarity.

WHAT’S NEXT?

US-Iran talks in Islamabad today may clarify transit terms. President Trump has also floated a US-Iran “joint venture” for Hormuz fee management. Industry bodies are developing queuing plans for the exit of hundreds of stranded vessels, though shipping executives do not expect normal operations to resume for at least six to eight weeks.

LIBYA: The Rising Oil Giant

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libya’s National Oil Corporation has announced three new oil and gas discoveries in partnership with Algeria’s Sonatrach, Italy’s Eni North Africa, and Spain’s Repsol, spanning the Ghadames Basin, an offshore area 95km from the western coast, and the Murzuq Basin 800km south of Tripoli.

WHY IT MATTERS?

With Iran disrupting Gulf energy flows, global markets are urgently seeking alternative supply. Libya—the world’s ninth largest oil producing state with direct pipeline and shipping access and growing international investment—is increasingly well-placed to fill that gap.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Libya is targeting 2 million barrels per day by 2030. A prolonged Iran crisis will likely accelerate the shift of energy investment toward Libya and other oil producing regions adjacent to the Gulf.

TANZANIA: Uncertain Growth Outlook

WHAT HAPPENED?

Fitch has warned of fragile economic prospects for Tanzania while cutting 2026 growth forecasts for Kenya to 5.0%, DRC to 5.2%, and Ethiopia to 8.0%, all due to the escalating Middle East crisis.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Fitch warned the conflict could rapidly become a cost of living crisis across Africa through higher fuel and food prices, rising shipping costs, and tighter fiscal conditions. Tanzania faces particular exposure, with GCC-dependent tourism revenues under threat and its current account deficit expected to widen to 3.5% of GDP.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Fitch warned the longer the crisis persists, the greater the risk of a continent-wide growth slowdown. A sharp upward adjustment in Kenyan fuel prices is expected in mid-April. The outlook hinges on whether the ceasefire holds and the Hormuz reopens, neither of which appears imminent.

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IRAN: Another TACO

WHAT HAPPENED?

President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran less than two hours before his self-imposed deadline, after receiving Iran’s 10-point peace proposal, which he called a “workable basis” for negotiations. The truce was brokered by Pakistan.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The ceasefire halts over a month of US-Israeli strikes that had pushed the region to the brink of wider war, disrupted global shipping, and spiked oil prices. Iran has also agreed to allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz during the two-week window, easing a disruption that had rattled global energy markets.

WHAT’S NEXT?

US and Iranian delegations are expected to meet in Islamabad on April 10 to negotiate a conclusive agreement. Significant gaps remain between the two sides, and Iran’s Supreme National Security Council warned the ceasefire does not signify the end of the war. Tehran has also demanded for complete control over the Strait of Hormuz, a demand Washington is unlikely to concede.

MOROCCO: New Logistics Corridor with Europe

WHAT HAPPENED?

Gotion, Green Power Morocco, and Chery Heavy Trucks signed an agreement to develop a heavy-duty electric logistics corridor between Morocco and France, targeting lower-emission cross-continental freight along a 2,000-km route from Agadir through Tangier to Perpignan.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The route currently handles roughly 2,000 diesel trucks per day, making it one of the busiest Africa-Europe trade arteries. Electrifying it with battery-swapping stations and smart fleet management could significantly cut freight emissions at scale and deepen Morocco’s already increasing trade ties with the EU.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The joint venture will begin with an initial deployment of 100 electric trucks, with further expansion tied to performance and infrastructure readiness.

ZIMBABWE: Changing the Game of Lithium Trade

WHAT HAPPENED?

Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Mines has set strict conditions for lithium exports to resume after suspending them in February. Companies must now commit to building domestic processing facilities, meet export quotas, and comply with financial reporting, labor, and environmental standards before shipments can restart.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Zimbabwe holds the world’s 7th largest reserves of lithium, a resource critical to emerging technologies such as EVs. By forcing domestic processing, the government aims to keep more revenue and industrial capacity inside the country, reflecting a wider African trend of asserting greater control over critical mineral supply chains.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Companies must submit written timelines for constructing lithium sulphate plants, with a 10% export tax remaining until January 2027, when a full ban on unprocessed concentrate exports takes effect.

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RUSSIA: Crypto as the Next Frontier of Soft Power in Africa

WHAT HAPPENED?

A7, a sanctioned Russian crypto payments network run by fugitive oligarch Ilan Șor and state defense lender Promsvyazbank, has opened offices in Zimbabwe and Nigeria and posted a job listing in Togo.

WHY IT MATTERS?

A7 represents Moscow’s effort to build a durable, dollar-independent payments infrastructure outside Western reach. With Lavrov publicly championing the platform and Russian military footprints deepening across the continent, the financial and geopolitical expansions in Africa are advancing in lockstep.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Russia will likely court more African partners to join A7, particularly commodity-dependent nations. In response, Western regulators and compliance teams will boost monitoring of correspondent banking exposure and rouble-denominated trade flows across the continent closely.

KENYA: The World’s Next Mining Battleground

WHAT HAPPENED?

Kenya formally launched a competitive tender for its Mrima Hill rare earths deposit, estimated at $62 billion, demanding in-country processing as a non-negotiable condition. Over 10 companies from the US, China, and Australia have already signaled interest.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Mrima Hill sits at the intersection of the US-China critical minerals rivalry. The supply chains of yttrium and niobium—key to defense, aerospace, and electronics—are dominated by China, making the deposit strategically significant for Western trade diversification.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Formal bids are expected within months. How Kenya navigates competing superpower interests, while protecting community rights and demanding benefaction, will set a precedent for how African nations monetize critical mineral wealth on their own terms.

IRAQ: Oil Approved for Safe Passage through the Hormuz

WHAT HAPPENED?

A PETRONAS-chartered tanker carrying Iraqi crude successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz after Iran cleared seven Malaysia-linked vessels to pass. The strait had been effectively closed since late February following US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Iran is selectively reopening the world’s most critical oil chokepoint along geopolitical lines: Rewarding non-aligned states while excluding US- and Israeli-connected vessels. This fragments global shipping into politically tiered access, raising costs and uncertainty for energy markets.

WHAT’S NEXT?

More non-aligned nations will likely pursue bilateral clearances with Tehran. Watch for Iran to leverage toll threats and selective access as a diplomatic pressure tool, while energy traders and insurers reprice risk on Hormuz-dependent routes.

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MOROCCO: Country has just over 50 days of energy reserves

WHAT HAPPENED?

Morocco is feeling the effects of global oil price spikes, with fuel costs up ~30% and transport subsidies being reinstated. Diesel and petrol reserves cover ~51 and ~55 days, respectively.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Morocco’s energy-import dependence makes it sensitive to global shocks. Transport and industrial sectors face immediate pressure, while electricity generation is insulated for now. The government must balance fiscal risk from subsidies with rising inflation.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Electricity supply remains stable; coal, which accounts for ~60% of power generation, along with gas and renewables, is secured through June. Mid-April tenders are planned for third-quarter coal and gas procurement.

EGYPT: Russia’s Grain and Energy Savior?

WHAT HAPPENED?

Russia has proposed establishing a grain and energy hub in Egypt, aiming to use Egyptian ports and infrastructure to reroute exports while bypassing Western sanctions. The plan would link energy and agricultural flows through Egyptian territory, leveraging the country’s strategic location on the Mediterranean and the Suez Canal.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Egypt could gain significant logistics and energy leverage, reinforcing its role as a regional trade and energy hub. For Russia, it’s a workaround to maintain commodity flows amid sanctions while deepening its foothold in both Africa and the Middle East.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Watch for Egyptian government engagement, port agreements, and Western response. Cairo may review the proposal but may not pursue it given its close ties with Washington and the EU.

SUDAN: A Government Reshuffle Pointing to a Long War Ahead

WHAT HAPPENED?

Sudan’s army appointed Yassir al-Atta as the new Chief of Staff, a close ally of de-facto president Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The move comes amid intensified fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Kordofan

WHY IT MATTERS?

The leadership change signals that SAF is preparing for prolonged conflict with more coordinated offensives, particularly as this month marks the war’s third anniversary. Rather than moving toward de-escalation, the appointment indicates institutionalization of war, with command structures aligning for sustained military operations.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Expect intensified SAF operations, potential territorial offensives, and continued fragmentation of control zones. Monitoring SAF’s strategic moves will indicate whether escalation accelerates.

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KENYA: Millions of Tea Bags Stuck, Threatening Prices

WHAT HAPPENED?

~8 million kg of Kenyan tea is stranded in Mombasa, with losses hitting ~$8M per week, as shipping disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis choke key export routes and demand from Gulf buyers collapses.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Kenya supplies ~20% of the world’s exported black tea, making it a critical node in global supply. Disruptions don’t just hit Kenyan revenues; they tighten global supply, pushing tea prices higher. At the same time, lost export income pressures Kenya’s currency and broader balance of payments.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The entry of the Houthis into the Iran conflict is now raising the likelihood of a renewed blockade of the Bab el-Mandez, one of the world’s most critical trade routes through which Kenya exports its goods. If such a blockade was to take place, it would tighten Kenya’s tea supply chains, spiking prices even higher.

MOROCCO: The Maritime Winner of the Iran Crisis?

WHAT HAPPENED?

Morocco’s Tanger Med Port is preparing for a surge in traffic as global shipping reroutes away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal due to security risks.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Tanger Med saw an 8.4% increase of container traffic in 2025, establishing it as a key node in Africa-Europe trade. Another surge in traffic will position Morocco as a critical state in global trade, particularly with Europe, bolstering its standing against its rival Algeria.

WHAT’S NEXT?

If disruptions persist, expect sustained congestion, higher freight costs, and long-term investment into Atlantic-facing logistics hubs. Algeria could respond by increasing oil exports to Europe as a means of challenging Rabat.

NIGERIA: Europe’s New Energy Anchor

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery is experiencing a surge in European demand for energy. With the refinery having reached full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, European states such as the United Kingdom are increasingly positioning themselves closer to Nigeria.

WHY IT MATTERS?

This positions Nigeria as a swing energy supplier in a disrupted global market. It also provides Nigeria greater geopolitical leverage over European buyers, particularly as the Iran crisis continues to deteriorate international energy markets.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Watch for long-term energy contracts and infrastructure scaling. If sustained, Nigeria could lock in a structural upgrade from commodity exporter to energy system player.

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NIGERIA: The World’s New Energy Giant Struggling At Home

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigeria is facing record fuel prices of ~₦1,400 ($1 USD) per liter, up 65%, despite the ramp-up of production at the Dangote Refinery. At the same time, Abuja removed foreign exchange restrictions on oil export revenues to attract foreign capital, as global demand for Nigerian LNG is surging with buyers seeking alternatives to disrupted Middle East supply.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Nigeria’s energy potential faces a structural gap: refining capacity has improved, but upstream constraints and FX dynamics still drive domestic prices. Simultaneously, Nigeria is emerging as a key Atlantic Basin energy supplier but faces many of the same global energy challenges must of the world is confronting.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As European buyers increasingly turn to African states for energy supply, Nigeria is likely to increase oil production to meet both domestic and foreign demand, while also launching FX reforms to secure foreign investment.

ETHIOPIA: Making Investment Inroads

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ethiopia signed $13 billion in investment deals across multiple sectors at the “Invest in Ethiopia 2026” conference, positioning itself as a key frontier growth market despite regional economic turbulence.

WHY IT MATTERS?

While many emerging markets are experiencing capital flight amid the Iran crisis, Ethiopia is bucking the trend by securing investment commitments. This signals confidence in its growth potential, but macroeconomic fragility and FX shortages could limit the impact of these deals.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As the specter of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea looms, watch how conflict outbreak can upend foreign investment decisions in Ethiopia.

ALGERIA: A Changing Relationship with the Polisario Front

WHAT HAPPENED?

Algeria has orchestrated a major leadership shake-up within the Polisario Front, replacing around 20 senior figures in its political and militia structures. The move comes amid growing US pressure, including calls from Congress, to designate the group as a terrorist organization. Hardline commanders and officials who advocated violence were removed and replaced by individuals more closely aligned with Algerian military interests.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The restructuring signals Algeria’s attempt to manage international scrutiny while maintaining influence over the Western Sahara conflict, but it exposes internal fractures that could destabilize the group further: The reshuffle has sparked protests and unrest in Polisario refugee camps.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As Algeria courts Western buyers of its energy, Algiers is likely to face greater scrutiny from Washington and other Western powers over its position in the Western Sahara conflict, threatening its export revenues. Algeria is likely to make additional reforms to its relationship with the Polisario Front without jeopardizing its partnership with the group entirely.

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ALGERIA: Italy Pushes for North African Gas Imports

WHAT HAPPENED?

Italy is moving to increase gas imports from Algeria to offset disrupted LNG flows from the Gulf. Algeria, which already supplies ~30% of Italy’s gas, is negotiating expanded volumes and new upstream projects. Libya and other regional producers are accelerating output amid elevated prices, positioning North Africa as a key alternative energy supplier for Europe.

WHY IT MATTERS?

North Africa is emerging as a frontline alternative to Gulf energy flows, giving the region pricing and geopolitical leverage, while Europe accelerates diversification away from the Hormuz chokepoint. Algeria in particular is positioned well given its existing pipelines and oil stability in contrast to Libya.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As the Iran crisis continues to derail oil markets, more European powers are likely to forge closer energy ties with Algeria and Africa more broadly, accelerating a strategic shift in energy supply chains toward the Mediterranean.

DRC: China Makes Mineral Inroads While America is Distracted

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) signed a new mining cooperation deal with China, deepening Beijing’s control over cobalt, copper, and lithium. The agreement includes duty-free exports to China, expanded Chinese investment and geological data sharing, and pushes for local processing inside the DRC.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The DRC holds ~70% of global cobalt and major copper, coltan, and lithium reserves. Consequently, the country has become a key battleground in the global race for critical minerals. China’s deal strengthens its grip hold on relevant supply chains.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The U.S. will likely take both diplomatic and commercial countermeasures to deepen its foothold in the DRC’s mineral landscape. However, such efforts are unlikely to emerge in the coming months, given that Washington’s foreign policy priority is Iran, creating a window of opportunity for Beijing to expand its footprint even more.

SOUTH AFRICA: Sustaining Interest Rates for Survival

WHAT HAPPENED?

The South African Reserve Bank held its policy interest rate at 6.75%, opting against cuts as global energy prices, driven by the ongoing Iran crisis, are expected to push domestic inflation higher. Fuel inflation is projected above 18% in Q2, with headline inflation approaching 4%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Maintaining rates amid rising energy costs pressures the rand, equities, and corporate borrowing. Investors now anticipate a longer tight money period in South Africa, affecting domestic and regional capital flows and market confidence.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With the Iran crisis continuing, additional fiscal pressures will culminate on South Africa. Despite being Africa’s strongest economy and most impressive emerging market, such stress points are likely to deter foreign investment in South Africa.

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LIBYA: Russian Shadow Fleet Towed

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libya is towing a damaged Russian shadow fleet LNG tanker drifting off its Mediterranean coast after a drone strike. Known as the “Arctic Metagaz,” the tanker was towed in coordination with Eni to prevent an environmental disaster.

WHY IT MATTERS?

With global attention fixed on the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions, the Mediterranean has received far less attention. Russia is exploiting this gap, continuing naval operations and energy exports through the region, signaling a strategic shift in its maritime approach.

WHAT’S NEXT?

More shadow fleets are likely to emerge as global oil markets and supply chains remain volatile, due to the Iran crisis. Libya’s own oil exports may stagnate, constrained by concerns over proximity to these vessels.

MOZAMBIQUE: Ukraine’s New Energy Lifeline

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ukraine’s prolonged conflict with Russia has slashed its domestic gas production, pushing Kyiv to seek liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from Mozambique and other African gas producers to address acute energy shortages.

WHY IT MATTERS?

With energy supply chains under pressure, Ukraine is diversifying its sources far beyond Europe. Africa’s gas giants—especially Mozambique—are being eyed as strategic suppliers. This marks a shift in energy flows that could deepen African producers’ influence while tying African LNG markets more directly to European energy security dynamics.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Expect heightened diplomacy between Kyiv and African energy exporters, potential security‑linked energy deals, and renewed investor scrutiny of African LNG projects as Europe and Ukraine seek alternatives to both Russian and Gulf gas.

SUDAN: War Spreads to Ethiopian Border

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM‑N) forces captured the strategic town of Kurmuk on Sudan’s Blue Nile border with Ethiopia after heavy fighting with the Sudanese army.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Kurmuk’s fall signals yet another case of spillover in Sudan’s civil war. With allegations of Ethiopian logistical support to the RSF, including training and drones, the conflict may be widening beyond Sudan’s borders, complicating peace efforts and regional stability. The escalation comes amid rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea over the Red Sea, which threatens key commodity supply chains.

WHAT’S NEXT?

If conflict breaks out between Ethiopia and Eritrea, amalgamation could occur with the war in Sudan as it continues to spread to neighbors. The result would be regional disruption of supply chains and routes connecting critical commodities to global markets via the Red Sea.

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SOUTH AFRICA: Coal Resurgence During Global Disruption

WHAT HAPPENED?

South African mining company Exxaro Resources projects its coal exports to rise 10-12% as global energy markets tighten, with coal prices surging amid disrupted Middle East oil flows. Countries seeking alternatives to crude are increasingly turning to Southern Africa’s coal.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Countries seeking alternatives to crude are increasingly turning to Southern Africa’s coal. Effectively, South Africa is becoming a fallback energy supplier, stepping in to fill short-term global energy gaps. The result is an elevation of the region’s strategic importance in the energy market.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Expect continued coal export growth, temporary boosts in revenue, and short-term international reliance, while energy transition efforts pause under crisis conditions.

ZAMBIA: The New Copper Giant?

WHAT HAPPENED?

KoBold Metals is advancing a multi-billion-dollar copper project in Zambia, aiming for ~300,000 tons a year output by the early 2030s. The project is part of Zambia’s plan to triple copper production by 2031.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Zambia’s copper is critical for EVs and global energy transition supply chains. Western investors are backing the project to reduce dependence on China, positioning Southern Africa as a strategic supplier of essential minerals.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Expect additional investment in Zambian copper and construction of supporting infrastructure. With energy resources influx, minerals such as copper will be seen as a hedge resource, further pushing capital inflows into Zambia.

SUDAN: A War Not Restrained By Borders

WHAT HAPPENED?

Clashes between Sudanese forces and paramilitaries along the Sudan–Chad border have killed at least 17 civilians and injured over 120 last Wednesday, according to Associated Press. In response, Chad has closed its border to prevent spillover, highlighting the widening humanitarian and security impact of Sudan’s civil war.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The fighting shows how Sudan’s conflict is destabilizing neighboring countries and threatening regional security. Border closures impede trade, aid delivery, and refugee movement, intensifying humanitarian pressure on already vulnerable populations.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With much of the world gripped by the conflict in the Middle East, the Sudan war is likely to intensify as both actors aim to make strategic progress amid less global pressure to engage in diplomatic discussions.

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SOMALILAND: New bill calls for connecting it to the US financial system

WHAT HAPPENED?

A U.S. congressman introduced the Somaliland Economic Access and Opportunity Act, directing the Treasury to identify barriers preventing the breakaway region from accessing the U.S. and global financial system. The bill calls for a report within 180 days on compliance with international financial standards and access to institutions like the IMF and World Bank.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Somaliland, autonomous since 1991 but unrecognized internationally, is largely cut off from formal banking and remittances. The bill signals U.S. interest in deepening engagement in the Horn of Africa and countering China’s growing regional influence.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Treasury will submit findings in 6 months, potentially informing policy or legislative steps toward financial integration. The move could be the first toward full American diplomatic recognition of Somaliland.

SOUTH AFRICA: Oil is down, coal is up

WHAT HAPPENED?

South Africa’s Exxaro forecasts a 12% increase in coal exports for 2026, citing surging global oil and gas prices and regional energy insecurity. Benchmark coal prices are expected to hit ~$118 a ton, signaling renewed demand for fossil fuels amid ongoing Middle East disruptions.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The crisis is accelerating a global pivot back to coal and other fallback energy sources, elevating Southern Africa’s strategic importance as a reliable supplier. Markets reliant on Middle East oil and gas are increasingly turning to alternative coal supply chains.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Number of various countries begin signing mining agreements with Southern African firms to secure key coal and mineral supply chains.

DR CONGO: The Next African Energy Superpower?

WHAT HAPPENED?

DR Congo and South Africa are reviving talks on the $10 billion Inga 3 hydropower project, part of the Grand Inga scheme on the Congo River. South Africa’s electricity minister is expected in Kinshasa in April to discuss expanding power supply agreements.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Inga 3 could generate up to 11,000 MW, potentially doubling South Africa’s electricity imports and helping address chronic load-shedding. It would also position DR Congo as a major regional power exporter across southern, eastern, and central Africa, reshaping continental energy dynamics.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Final financing and investment decisions remain pending. Talks in April will determine project scope, timelines, and South Africa’s potential increased power allocation.

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SUDAN: Australian Gold Miner Walks Away

WHAT HAPPENED?

Australian mining company Perseus Mining agreed to sell its 70% stake in Sudan’s Meyas Sand Gold Project for about $372 million, exiting one of Africa’s largest undeveloped gold assets. The sale comes as Sudan’s civil war continues to disrupt infrastructure, financing, and development plans, making large‑scale mining projects increasingly uncertain. Perseus will receive roughly $260 million from the transaction, while the Sudanese government retains a 20% interest and a local partner holds 10%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Gold is Sudan’s most lucrative resource and has been eyed upon by mining corporations. In February, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the de facto government of Sudan, signed an agreement with Saudi Gold Refinery to begin gold exploration along the Red Sea coast. The withdrawal of Perseus, and the geopolitical risk it signals, will likely deter similar agreements with organizations outside of the region.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The project’s new owners will need to navigate security and logistics before development can proceed. Broader implications include heightened risk premiums for frontier mining assets, potential delays in critical mineral supply, and a reassessment of investment strategies by global miners eyeing Sudan.

SOUTH AFRICA: Taking the Fight Back to the Streets

WHAT HAPPENED?

South Africa deployed ~2,200 soldiers to combat illegal mining and organized crime in key provinces, targeting “zama zamas” operations that threaten gold, platinum, and chrome production, the largest deployment since 2023. Mining output in affected regions has already been disrupted, and investor confidence is under pressure.

WHY IT MATTERS?

South Africa is a key supplier of critical minerals used in EVs, electronics, and industrial applications. The persistence of criminal operations targeting such minerals is undermining foreign investment amid a surging interest in Africa’s mineral wealth. Disruptions ripple into global markets, affecting supply chains, metal prices, and industrial production worldwide. Emerging markets reliant on South African minerals for trade and industrial inputs face heightened volatility.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Security enforcement will determine whether South Africa maintains stable mineral exports. Prolonged disruptions could tighten global PGM and gold markets, impacting investors and manufacturers from Europe to Asia.

LIBYA: Striking the Black Gold with Eni

WHAT HAPPENED?

Italian energy giant Eni discovered over 1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas offshore Libya, in two structures within the Metlaoui reservoir, about 85 km from the coast. The reserves are near existing infrastructure, allowing rapid development and potential production of roughly 130 million cubic feet per day.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The discovery strengthens Libya’s energy position and provides Europe, particularly Italy, with an alternative gas supply as it reduces reliance on Russia. The discovery could stabilize regional energy flows and impact global gas markets by adding Mediterranean-sourced supply at a time of heightened volatility due to the Iran crisis.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Rapid development and export agreements could enhance Libya-Europe energy ties, create short-term supply relief for Europe, and influence global gas pricing, with ripple effects for emerging markets reliant on energy imports.

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MIDDLE EAST

Saudi Arabia and India Bridging the Maritime Gap

WHAT HAPPENED?

A Saudi crude oil tanker reached India after extensive diplomatic coordination to ensure safe passage amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. The voyage was delayed due to regional naval security concerns and the potential threat to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The successful delivery underscores the diplomatic bandwidth that still remains in the region despite the fragility of global oil supply chains. Reports of India being in talks with Iran to reopen the Hormuz are indicative of this.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Similar shipments will likely require continued diplomatic negotiation, naval coordination, and contingency planning, signaling a period of sustained volatility for global energy markets. However, continued pressure on the Hormuz will squeeze diplomatic progress.

Black Sea Comes to the Hormuz

WHAT HAPPENED?

The European Union has proposed creating a “Black Sea–style corridor” to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, following disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict. The plan aims to ensure the safe passage of oil, gas, and container traffic while minimizing risks from regional tensions.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Europe’s energy crisis is threatening to deepen as Gulf energy and the supply chains bridging it with Western markets come under pressure. A secure corridor would stabilize maritime trade and ensure a stream of oil to the EU and slow down the continent’s search for other suppliers.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Implementation will require EU coordination with Gulf and regional powers, potentially including escort fleets, enhanced monitoring, and multilateral agreements to keep the corridor operational. Yet cooperation will face challenges, as reports of Iran having laid sea mines across the Hormuz surface.

AFRICA

Gulf Energy Under Pressure on One Side, Investments Rising on the Other

WHAT HAPPENED?

Despite ongoing geopolitical turbulence, Gulf countries remain keen on investing in African energy projects, committing over $100 billion across the continent. Investments are focused on North African solar and hydrogen projects, Southern African renewable and grid infrastructure, and East African energy transition initiatives.

WHY IT MATTERS?

These flows strengthen Africa’s energy transition, addressing a critical electricity deficit affecting roughly 600 million people, while also securing Gulf states’ diversification strategies. The investments also signal Gulf capital outflows remaining steady despite geopolitical shocks and risks.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Iran crisis has positioned Africa as a key energy supplier for the Western world, particularly Europe. Gulf countries will deepen their partnerships with African states to propel this trend forward.

China Making Maritime Inroads

WHAT HAPPENED?

Shipping giant CMA CGM has introduced a $600 surcharge per container for cargo traveling from China to several West and Central African ports, effective mid-March. The measure is in response to rising global shipping costs, congestion at ports, and heightened risk premiums tied to ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Central and West African economies are heavily import-dependent, so higher freight costs will likely raise consumer prices, pressure inflation, and increase operational costs for businesses. This could also strain already fragile supply chains, particularly for manufacturing and retail sectors.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Importers may seek alternative logistics solutions, including port diversification and shipping route adjustments, while regional policymakers could consider mitigating measures such as temporary subsidies or trade facilitation programs.

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