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NORTH AFRICA: Egypt Suez Canal Traffic Surges

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Suez Canal experienced an increase in the number of oil tankers in April, up 14% from the same period last year, attributed to shipping companies traversing away from the Strait of Hormuz.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Suez Canal represents one of the most strategically important maritime trade routes and a critical revenue stream for Egypt, serving as a cushion for the country’s ongoing economic stresses.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Shipping companies are likely to remain uncertain even if a ceasefire with Iran is secured; Tehran has also signaled its intent to exert control over the Hormuz long-term, driving more maritime profits to Cairo.

EAST AFRICA: Ethiopia spending to rise next fiscal year

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ethiopian Finance Minister Ahmed Shide announced that overall spending will rise in the 2026/27 fiscal year from 1.92 trillion birr ($12.92 billion) to roughly 2.34 trillion birr ($14.69 billion), attributed to the ripple effects of the Iran war.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Ethiopia remains a cornerstone for Gulf investments in East Africa; sustained fiscal pressure may deter further GCC collaboration.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Ethiopia is likely to accelerate its ongoing bond restructuring efforts to limit further fiscal pressure.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Chinese Cobalt Production Plummets

WHAT HAPPENED?

Financial Times reported a fall in cobalt metal production by China since the beginning of last year, dropping from over 80% refining capacity utilization to under 20%, attributed to export curbs on mined cobalt hydroxide by the Democratic Republic of Congo.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Cobalt hydroxide remains fundamental to modern technologies such as batteries; limited supply coupled with soaring input costs will likely drive rising end-product prices.

WHAT’S NEXT?

For Gulf mining organizations, China’s production fall represents an opportunity to deepen its mining foothold, but also serves as a warning sign for market entry.

WEST AFRICA: IMF Cautions of $5 Billion Nigeria-UAE Derivatives Agreement

WHAT HAPPENED?

The IMF has alerted Nigeria against its derivatives agreement with First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), under which FAB will lend Nigeria $5 billion to cut borrowing costs, citing transparency concerns.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Nigeria is emerging as the critical node in the UAE’s growing West African commercial footprint. A pivot away could decelerate the Emirates’ strategy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Although the IMF has argued for Nigeria to issue eurobonds instead, Abuja is likely to proceed with the agreement following its Senate approval in April.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Zambia Obtains Bondholder Backing for $1.36 Billion Eurobond

WHAT HAPPENED?

Zambia has passed the 75% participation mark needed to repurchase its $1.36 billion Eurobond, made possible in part by a $600 million loan from the African Development Bank.

WHY IT MATTERS?

After defaulting on sovereign debt in 2020, this effort marks a significant acceleration in Zambia’s debt restructuring and could act as a model for other African states such as Ethiopia.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The move will reduce uncertainty for Gulf investors looking to partner with Zambia, particularly in its copper-rich mining sector.

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NORTH AFRICA: Morocco Seeks $540 Million Bond for Green Energy Expansion

WHAT HAPPENED?

Office Chérifien des Phosphates (OCP) Group, a Moroccan-state owned phosphate producer, is raising a bond worth MAD 5 billion ($540 million) to invest in new green energy projects.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Morocco holds roughly 70% of the world’s supply of phosphate, a tool increasingly important for both food security and emerging technologies. The Kingdom hopes to cultivate this resource wealth into a more profitable revenue stream.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Investors in the Gulf states may offer financing support in exchange for higher phosphate imports, as they aim to strengthen their food security.

EAST AFRICA: M-Pesa Integrating Blockchain Payments with UAE Backing

WHAT HAPPENED?

M-Pesa Africa, one of the continent’s leading money transfer services based in Nairobi, will incorporate blockchain infrastructure into its platform in collaboration with Abu Dhabi-based ADI Foundation.

WHY IT MATTERS?

M-Pesa remains heavily dependent on banks and correspondent networks across several markets, delaying transactions. Blockchain deployment can accelerate such exchanges.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The ADI partnership reflects a wider UAE trend of deploying blockchain into existing transactions. Abu Dhabi may be signaling its intent to expand that deployment beyond its borders.

CENTRAL AFRICA: CMOC Offers Bonus Package to End Workers’ Strike

WHAT HAPPENED?

CMOC Group Limited, a Chinese mining company overseeing the Tenke Fungureme Mine (TFM) in Kinshasa, has proposed a bonus package to workers to end an ongoing strike.

WHY IT MATTERS?

TFM is one of the most lucrative copper and cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Sustained strikes could delay key mining operations and reduce regional copper-cobalt supply.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf mining organizations expanding in the DRC will closely watch CMOC’s response to inform their own strategies when facing workers’ strikes.

WEST AFRICA: Nigeria Stock Market Falls $3.6 Billion

WHAT HAPPENED?

After months of strong performance, the Nigerian stock market closed its first trading week in June in the negative. A surge of profit-taking cleared N4.9 trillion ($3.6 billion) from the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX).

WHY IT MATTERS?

The NGX is Africa’s highest growth stock market, having recently overtaken Morocco to become the continent’s second largest. The rapid selloff may increase uncertainty for foreign investors in the Gulf.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With GCC countries bridging closer ties with Nigeria and Aliko Dangote intending to list his refinery on the market, investors will watch whether NGX’s rapid growth is met with sustained volatility.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Mozambique Scores $1 Billion FLNG Contract

WHAT HAPPENED?

Mozambique Rovuma Venture (MRV) will collaborate with French Technip Energies on the Coral Norte floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) project, worth $1.14 billion.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Mozambique holds some of the world’s largest LNG reserves, with Coral Norte expected to produce 3.6 million tonnes annually. The global shift toward FLNG has accelerated energy investment in the country.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf energy investors and SMEs may increasingly engage with Mozambique as part of this trend, including through infrastructure support or securing a stake in MRV.

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NORTH AFRICA: Algeria Commences Construction of its Pipeline Section

WHAT HAPPENED?

Algeria has begun construction on its 1,210 kilometer section of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, a 4,128 kilometer project transiting Nigerian gas through Niger to European markets, with capacity for up to 30 billion cubic meters annually.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Algeria supplies ~12% of EU gas imports. European interest has surged since Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion disrupted energy supplies, making the pipeline increasingly strategic for Algerian export revenues.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With the EU targeting an end to Russian gas imports by 2027, the pipeline’s importance grows. Morocco is separately pursuing a rival pipeline with Nigeria.

EAST AFRICA: Tanzania’s Hassan Makes the Case for Foreign Investment

WHAT HAPPENED?

Tanzanian President Hassan pitched Tanzania as a manufacturing and logistics hub at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, presenting the multibillion-dollar Bagamoyo Special Economic Zone to investors and President Putin.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Hassan has pursued investment from Western, Russian, Chinese, and Gulf sources. Gulf investment remains modest—Saudi Arabia and the UAE have combined investments of $841.8 million—but Bagamoyo could attract greater GCC spending.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Hassan will continue attending similar international forums to court capital, while Gulf investors watch closely to see whether Bagamoyo’s potential is realized.

CENTRAL AFRICA: US Launches New Sanctions on Commanders in Eastern DRC

WHAT HAPPENED?

The US sanctioned intelligence commanders John Imani Nzenze of M23 and Gustave Kubwayo of FDLR for human rights abuses and regional destabilisation in eastern DRC.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The sanctions target assets linked to both commanders. Given their groups’ roles in critical minerals supply chains, this raises risk and compliance concerns for Gulf actors operating in the region.

WHAT’S NEXT?

GCC mining companies must update risk assessments and compliance frameworks to align with the new US sanctions.

WEST AFRICA: Nigeria-UAE Trade Tops $4.8 Billion

WHAT HAPPENED?

UAE Minister of Foreign Trade Al Zeyoudi named Nigeria a cornerstone of Emirati investment in Africa in an interview with BusinessDay, with bilateral trade reaching $4.8 billion in 2025.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As the UAE expands beyond its traditional Northeast Africa focus, Nigeria has emerged as the linchpin of its West Africa strategy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With Nigeria launching new energy and infrastructure projects, commercial ties with the UAE are set to deepen across both sectors.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Botswana, UAE, and Oman Discuss De Beers Acquisition

WHAT HAPPENED?

Botswana is seeking a strategic stake in De Beers and is in talks with Emirati and Omani investors to finance the acquisition.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As the world’s second-largest diamond producer—with 29.5 million carats in 2025—increasing Botswana’s current 15% De Beers stake would significantly elevate its role in global diamond supply chains.

WHAT’S NEXT?

In exchange for financing, the UAE and Oman will likely seek increased diamond exports, particularly as their supplies face pressure amid the Iran conflict.

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NORTH AFRICA: Egypt Scores $355M Gas Contract in Oman

WHAT HAPPENED?

Enppi, an Egyptian gas company 97% owned by the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation, secured a $355 million deal with Oman. Awarded by Petroleum Development Oman, the contract provides Enppi with facility construction rights in Budour, located in the Dhofar region.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The contract marks another key advancement in Egypt’s energy sector this year and is part of a wider Omani effort to drive growth and job creation in 2026.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The project concludes within 26 months and aims to increase production at Budour from 1.4 million to 4.2 million standard cubic metres per day.

EAST AFRICA: Kenya Proposes 15% Capital Gains Tax on Foreign Investors

WHAT HAPPENED?

Kenya’s Finance Bill 2026 proposed a 15% capital gains tax on indirect share transfers, targeting offshore exit structures commonly used by foreign investors.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As East Africa’s largest economy, Kenya has attracted significant Gulf investment: Saudi Arabia and the UAE have invested a combined $990.5 million. The proposed tax could discourage future flows.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The GCC is unlikely to abandon Kenya entirely, but investment strategies focused on Nairobi will undergo reassessment to account for the proposed tax.

CENTRAL AFRICA: DRC Reclassifies Critical Minerals, 10% Royalty Rate

WHAT HAPPENED?

The DRC listed lithium, tantalum, niobium, tungsten, uranium, and rare earth elements as strategic minerals, resulting in a 10% royalty fee on their mining.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The DRC is the world’s largest cobalt producer and has attracted substantial Gulf investment. Abu Dhabi-based International Resources Holding (IRH), which holds a 56% stake in the Bisie tin mine, will likely need to revise its cost projections.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The higher royalty fee is unlikely to deter Gulf mining operations, especially as the race for critical minerals becomes increasingly geopolitical.

WEST AFRICA: Ghana Inflation Rose to 3.7% in May

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ghana’s inflation rose for the second consecutive month, from 3.4% in April to 3.7% in May, largely driven by Iran-driven higher energy prices.

WHY IT MATTERS?

With an IMF-projected GDP growth of 4.8%, Ghana has grown as an investment destination. Qatar signed a $1.5 billion agricultural deal last August, but inflationary pressures are likely to deter further investment short term.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf countries will watch closely as Ghana battles the Iran war’s economic pressures. If stability holds, renewed investment appetite is likely post-war.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Zambia Extends Debt Suspension on Copper Concentrates

WHAT HAPPENED?

Zambia extended its suspension of the 10% export duty on copper concentrates until September 30, allowing miners to export without the levy.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The exemption covers 271,742 metric tons. The largest allocation went to Mopani Copper Mines, jointly owned by Zambia and the UAE through IRH, which received a 100,000 ton duty-free quota.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Mopani’s allocation highlights the growing role of Gulf capital in Zambia’s mining sector. As Lusaka pursues investment reforms, favorable policies for Gulf actors are likely to follow.

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NORTH AFRICA: Algeria’s $7 Billion Phosphate Project to Conclude in 2027

WHAT HAPPENED?

Algeria announced that its $7 billion Integrated Phosphate Project concludes next year, boosting annual output from 2.5 million to 10.5 million tonnes.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The initiative leverages Algeria’s hydrocarbon wealth as Europe seeks diverse energy suppliers. Algeria holds 3 billion tonnes of phosphate, ranking sixth-largest globally in 2024.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With 90% of phosphate used in food production, Gulf states investing heavily in agricultural assets for food security view this expansion as a prime investment pathway.

EAST AFRICA: Ethiopian Debt Restructuring Encounters Friction

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ethiopia’s attempt to restructure its defaulted $1 billion Eurobond stalled after a bondholder committee rejected the government’s revised proposal.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Ethiopia is a vital hub for East African Gulf investments, with the UAE alone deploying $2.3 billion. Restructuring woes will likely increase Ethiopia’s illiquidity risk scores for GCC decision-makers.

WHAT’S NEXT?

These struggles highlight the difficulty of balancing diverse creditors under the G20 Common Framework. Consequently, Gulf entities may favor faster bilateral lending over global frameworks.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Cameroon Receives Infrastructure Upgrade via Egyptian Dynasty

WHAT HAPPENED?

Egypt’s Elsewedy Electric partnered with Algerian Sonelgaz to expand into Central Africa, targeting renewable energy, logistics, and digital infrastructure in Cameroon.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Cameroon has long been dominated by French corporations and West African conglomerates. Elsewedy’s entrance disrupts this monopoly, opening Cameroon to broader foreign investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

This shift allows the Gulf to increase capital deployment. Elsewedy’s established GCC presence–operating six factories–acts as a strategic gateway for Gulf firms entering Cameroon.

WEST AFRICA: Nigerian Cooking Gas Prices Rise Despite Local Supply

WHAT HAPPENED?

Despite local refineries aiming to meet 100% of domestic demand, Nigerian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices spiked, reaching N2,000 ($1.46) per kilogram in key regions.

WHY IT MATTERS?

This highlights an energy paradox: while the Dangote Refinery boosts global trade standing, downstream distribution remains crippled by costly coastal shipping and degraded road networks.

WHAT’S NEXT?

This bottleneck represents a critical infrastructure gap. Investing in midstream logistical infrastructure to streamline gas transport could become a cornerstone of future GCC investments.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: EU Mobilizes $14 Billion Pledge for South African Minerals

WHAT HAPPENED?

The EU hosted an investment roadshow in South Africa to launch a €12 billion ($13.98 billion) investment package focused on critical minerals.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Facing competition with China, the EU is prioritizing critical mineral supply chains. Holding over $2.5 trillion in ore reserves, South Africa is the primary target.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Trade Minister Parks Tau emphasized that the objective is local industrial processing, not raw mineral export. The GCC can deepen ties by funding this required processing infrastructure.

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NORTH AFRICA: Morocco Overtakes South Africa as Africa’s Top Industrial Economy

WHAT HAPPENED?

The AfDB’s Africa Industrialization Index 2025 placed Morocco ahead of South Africa as the continent’s leading industrial economy, scoring 0.8415 against 0.8396, reflecting a decade of industrial upgrading and export diversification.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Morocco’s position bridging Africa, Europe, and the Middle East has made it a credible manufacturing hub, increasingly cited as a top emerging market for continental investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf SMEs can leverage Morocco’s industrial base as a gateway into North African and Southern European markets.

EAST AFRICA: Kenyan Inflation Accelerates Due to Iran War

WHAT HAPPENED?

Kenya’s inflation climbed to 6.7% in May from 5.6% in April, a two-year high, as Iran conflict-driven energy prices pushed transport costs up 16.5%, food prices up 9.4%, and fuel-related housing costs up 3.4%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Kenya is a major Gulf investment destination, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE having collectively deployed $990.5 million. Elevated currency risk and weakening consumer spending now complicate the investment case.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf SMEs in retail and hospitality are likely to recalibrate market entry as consumers tighten spending.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Moody’s Raises Congo Fiscal Outlook

WHAT HAPPENED?

Moody’s upgraded Congo’s sovereign outlook to positive from stable, affirming its Caa2 rating, after the country raised nearly $2.5 billion across four international bond transactions between November 2025 and May 2026.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Oil and gas account for 40% of GDP and 90% of exports. Elevated crude prices and a $2 billion energy gateway initiative are strengthening Congo’s fiscal position.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf energy companies have growing partnership opportunities, though debt at 98% of GDP and weak cash management mean risks remain material.

WEST AFRICA: Dangote Refinery Emerges as World’s Largest Jet Fuel Exporter

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery became the world’s largest jet fuel exporter in April 2026, shipping 158,000 barrels per day—a 770% increase from 18,000 bpd in 2024—as Middle East disruptions rerouted global aviation fuel demand.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Lagos cargoes reach European ports in half the time of Gulf routes, challenging Gulf refiners’ market share. A $10 billion expansion and potential IPO signal long-term global ambitions.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The IPO offers Gulf investors early exposure to a fast-rising competitor, while Gulf refiners must reassess their European market logistics economics.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: South Africa Hikes Interest Rate

WHAT HAPPENED?

The SARB raised its repo rate 25 basis points to 7% on May 29, its first hike since 2023, after inflation jumped from 3.1% to 4.0% in April on Middle East-linked energy shocks, while cutting its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Despite a $479.96 billion GDP, South Africa faces compounding pressures from high unemployment, rising inflation, and tightening monetary conditions, deterring Gulf foreign investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf investors are recalibrating exposure as currency risks rise, with the SARB flagging up to three further hikes in worst-case scenarios.

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NORTH AFRICA: Libya and Turkey Strengthen Energy Ties

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libyan Oil and Gas Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq and Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar held bilateral talks at the 2026 Natural Resources Summit in Istanbul, focused on expanding investment partnerships between energy companies.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Turkey imports roughly 13% of its annual gas from Iran, and the ongoing crisis has pushed Ankara to seek alternatives. Given Turkey’s longstanding involvement in Libya, Tripoli is a natural fit.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Egypt and Gulf states are expected to likewise deepen ties with Libya as it seeks foreign investment to rebuild its energy infrastructure.

EAST AFRICA: Somalia and Turkey Sign Mining Agreement

WHAT HAPPENED?

Somali Energy Minister Dahir Shire Mohamed announced that Somalia is seeking to expand its partnership with Turkey into critical minerals, with discussions in Istanbul focused on updating a 2016 mining MoU.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Somalia holds roughly 10,200 tons of uranium. Turkey is eyeing this wealth to advance ties with Mogadishu and accelerate its energy transition.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Somalia-Somaliland dispute is becoming integral to the Turkey-Israel rivalry. Israel is likely to respond by expanding mining ties with Somaliland, which holds untapped lithium, chromium, and nickel.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Jinchuan Uncovers $145 Million Fraud in the DRC

WHAT HAPPENED?

Jinchuan Group International Resources discovered $145 million was siphoned from its DRC copper and cobalt operations; $137.4 million in payments to 12 suspect suppliers and $7.1 million transferred to a former employee’s personal bank account.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The DRC’s mineral wealth remains largely unregulated, enabling misconduct. As more mining companies expand there, stronger internal controls will be critical to sustaining investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf states eyeing the DRC market will likely use this case as a basis for improved compliance frameworks in volatile environments.

WEST AFRICA: Turkey Bets on Nigerian Mines

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigeria and Turkey signed an MoU at the Natural Resources Summit on solid mineral development, with Nigeria set to leverage Turkish mining technology for exploration activities.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Nigeria has been positioning itself as a mining hub for Europe, and deepening ties with Turkey–which is expanding its African footprint–furthers that goal.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Mine insecurity remains a challenge; over 300 illegal operators have been arrested since Nigeria created its Mining Marshals. GCC countries will watch how Turkey navigates this to inform their own strategies.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Iranian War Weighs on South African Rand

WHAT HAPPENED?

The rand fell 0.3% to 16.3375 against the dollar after Secretary of State Marco Rubio admitted a deal with Tehran would “take a few days,” pushing Brent crude futures up 2%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

South Africa was on track for fiscal growth this year, but Iran-driven stress is threatening that trajectory and may deter foreign investment in the continent’s largest economy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Reserve Bank announces its rate decision Thursday, with economists expecting a 25 basis point hike. Gulf investors will monitor how Pretoria manages the pressure to guide their own strategies.

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EGYPT: Western Desert Energy Reserves Discovered

WHAT HAPPENED?

Egypt announced the discovery of an oil and natural gas well in the Western Desert. The well has an estimated reserve of 330 billion cubic feet of gas and 10 million barrels of crude oil, marking it as the largest discovery in 15 years by the Agiba Petroleum Company.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Cairo has made significant strides to reduce its reliance on foreign energy supplies and become a net exporter once again. This recent discovery will help to accelerate that push, particularly as the Iran crisis strains Egypt’s oil import routes.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Further exploration is to be conducted, along with drilling of 101 oil and gas wells this year per a $5.7 billion government program. Gulf energy organizations are likely to find strategic partnership opportunities in Egypt as part of this investment.

ETHIOPIA: Addis Ababa Accuses Cairo of Blocking Its Red Sea Bid

WHAT HAPPENED?

In a statement issued last Thursday, the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry accused Egypt of making efforts to “obstruct” Addis Ababa’s attempts to gain Red Sea access, which the Ministry reiterated remains a top priority.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Ethiopia’s push to secure maritime reach to the Red Sea has elevated tensions between it and its neighbors, while Egypt remains concerned over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s implications for Cairo’s Nile water supply. The Iran war is heightening these tensions; Business Insider Africa reports of three vessels bound for Ethiopia holding 120,000 metric tonnes of diesel being stranded in the Gulf, deepening the government’s desire for maritime access.

WHAT’S NEXT?

If the Iran war concludes amid continuing peace talks between Tehran and Washington, GCC states can leverage their deep political and investment ties with both Ethiopia and Egypt to secure a longstanding settlement.

UGANDA: Central Bank Reduces Liquidity As Iran War Ensues

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Bank of Uganda (BoU) raised its Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) from 9.5% to 11%, as the ongoing global energy crisis pressures the country’s currency. The CRR represents a segment of customer deposits commercial banks hold in reserve with the central bank.

WHY IT MATTERS?

According to EHS Africa Logistics, Uganda’s real GDP is forecast to grow at a 6.6% CAGR from 2024 to 2029, making it a top growing emerging market. Yet as a landlocked country, it remains fiscally vulnerable to maritime trade shocks, impeding its growth.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Iran war is likely to push Kampala to accelerate its energy transition and establish new trade maritime routes, opening up investment opportunities for the Gulf.

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NIGERIA: Dangote Refinery Gears Up for $100 Million IPO

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigerian tycoon and Chairman of First HoldCo Plc, Femi Otedola, announced he will invest $100 million in the upcoming initial public offering (IPO) of the Dangote Oil Refinery in Nigeria.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Dangote Refinery is among Africa’s most significant industrial projects and a key venture toward resource self-sufficiency. Its IPO and mounting investor interest from figures like Otedola reflect the refinery’s potential as a financial magnet for foreign investment in West Africa.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Otedola’s investment will be allocated ahead of the IPO via private placement. With the refinery valued at close to $50 billion, Gulf investors may see value in contributing to the project as Northwest Africa positions itself as an alternative energy supplier to Europe.

ETHIOPIA: Dangote Secures Pipeline Deal With Djibouti

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH) and the Dangote Group gained approval for a pipeline project connecting Ethiopia to Djibouti. The first phase will construct a pipeline for refined crude oil connecting the port of Djibouti to Dawale in southeastern Ethiopia. The second phase will extend a pipeline for natural gas and crude oil through Ethiopia’s Somali region.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Ethiopia is the world’s most populous landlocked country, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has made gaining maritime access a central economic priority, putting the country at odds with its neighbors. Dangote’s pipeline project offers new trade routes while potentially easing tensions between Addis Ababa and its bordering states.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Ethiopia has become a cornerstone of the GCC’s deepening ties with East Africa, with the UAE investing $2.3 billion in the country in recent years. Dangote’s growing presence in the region could pave the way for collaboration between the Dangote Group and GCC sovereign wealth funds.

TANZANIA: Rare Earth Deposits Discovered in Collaboration with China

WHAT HAPPENED?

Tanzania announced newly discovered rare earth mineral deposits in its southern Ludewa District of Njombe Region. The deposit contains neodymium and praseodymium–critical minerals used in technologies ranging from smartphones to artificial intelligence–explored jointly by the Tanzanian government and Chinese firm Hongji Mining Co. Ltd.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The discovery elevates Tanzania’s strategic importance in the global race for critical minerals and is likely to draw greater mining investment toward Tanzania and East Africa broadly.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Tanzania has received relatively modest Gulf investment, having received a total of $736.8 million from the UAE. As GCC engagement in African mining grows, investors and policymakers in Abu Dhabi and across the Gulf may eye closer collaboration with Tanzania moving forward.

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SOUTH AFRICA: $5.8 Billion Hydrogen Project Moves Closer to Production

WHAT HAPPENED?

South Africa’s flagship clean energy project, Hive Hydrogen, selected a $1 billion electrolyzer and ammonia production solution able to produce one million tonnes of green ammonia annually. The project, worth $5.8 billion, will be powered by both wind and solar energy, reducing electricity expenses by 25%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Green ammonia has increasingly become an important maritime fuel source and is a core focus of various hydrogen projects worldwide, of which the Hydrogen Council and McKinsey estimate to be over 500. South Africa’s recent move positions it as a leading hydrogen powerhouse in Africa.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Pretoria hopes that the project will open up new investment opportunities, providing pathways for Gulf investors to collaborate. The UAE in particular has much to gain; with Abu Dhabi emerging as a leading investor in South Africa’s maritime sector, the shipping value provided by Hive Hydrogen may deepen its maritime partnership with Pretoria.

DR CONGO: Government-Backed Incursion In Cobalt Deposit

WHAT HAPPENED?

Congolese businessman Fatou Ntete Etumba launched a takeover of a large section of Eurasian Resources Group’s cobalt deposit near the city of Kolwezi. Etumba claimed that he received government authorization to do so, with the aim of cleaning up the surrounding river basin. ERG however has described the incursion as an “illegal invasion”, according to Bloomberg.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Despite the DR Congo’s vast mineral wealth, the country’s rich deposits are also fraught with insecurity, a trend seen elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa. For Gulf mining companies, it highlights the significance of security initiatives tied to investments. The UAE, for instance, is reportedly backing a security force in DR Congo to protect mines.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf investors are likely to watch the incident unfold to guide their own security assessments regarding future mining projects and investments in DR Congo and elsewhere in the region.

NIGER: Government Secures 45% State in China-Backed Pipeline

WHAT HAPPENED?

After rounds of negotiations, the government of Niger gained a 45% stake in the West African Oil Pipeline Company, the organization which oversees the Niger-Benin crude export pipeline, majority-owned by China.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The move secures greater export revenues to Niger, serving as a strategic income stream for a military regime that still remains largely internationally isolated. The move also marks the wider trend of West African governments asserting greater control over their natural resources and the adjoining infrastructure.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Such steps toward resource nationalism will still remain unrealized without the supporting infrastructure to tap into resources. As Niger and other West African countries seek to diversify partners beyond Russia and China, the Gulf states are positioned well to provide backing.

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SUDAN: Qatar Mining to Resume $800 Million Copper Project

WHAT HAPPENED?

After suspending operations in Sudan due to the ongoing civil war, Qatar Mining will be resuming its activities in the country, most notably on an $800 million copper project, after receiving approval from the Sudanese Ministry of Minerals.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Sudan’s mining sector has long been a key economic pillar, with Qatar Mining having operated in the country since 2012. The ongoing war has derailed this key revenue stream, which the army hopes to reverse. In February, for instance, Sudan struck a mining agreement with Saudi Arabia to conduct gold exploration along the Red Sea coastline.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With this marking the second major mining agreement between Sudan and the Gulf this year, GCC mining organizations are likely to be among the first racing to reenter Sudan as its mining industry is rehabilitated.

EGYPT: TotalEnergies Expands Mediterranean Exploration

WHAT HAPPENED?

State-owned Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company and French oil giant TotalEnergies signed a memorandum of understanding to expand offshore hydrocarbon exploration in the Mediterranean Sea. The MoU’s framework specifically focuses on a large offshore area located in Egypt’s northwestern region.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Having once been a net energy exporter, Egypt has become reliant on Gulf energy, currently in limited supply due to the Iran crisis. The war has pushed Cairo to take steps in revitalizing its energy sector to become a net exporter once more, an aim the TotalEnergies MoU furthers.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As the Iran crisis easens, Cairo is likely to look to Gulf energy partners to help expand its own gas development, paving the way for similar agreements with GCC bodies.

NIGERIA: APM Terminals Makes a $600 Million Port Push

WHAT HAPPENED?

Dutch port operator APM Terminals announced a $600 million investment in Nigeria’s maritime sector. The package will focus primarily on: upgrading the Apapa Port, revamping logistics infrastructure, and deepening maritime cooperation in Nigeria.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Iran crisis has pushed shipping companies away from their traditional Gulf and East Africa maritime trade routes to those by West Africa, positioning themselves closely to Nigeria. APM’s investment aims to solidify Nigerian port infrastructure to handle such a traffic surge.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Port infrastructure has become a leading focal point for Gulf investments in Africa. GCC capitals are likely to follow in APM’s footsteps in investing in Nigeria and the wider West African region’s maritime sector.

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UAE: Mubadala Investing $325 Million in Offshore Wind Farm

WHAT HAPPENED?

Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company committed $325 million to Orsted’s Hornsea 3–the world’s largest offshore wind farm off the UK’s Norfolk coast–as part of a consortium led by Apollo Global Management.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The investment reflects the UAE and broader GCC’s push toward renewables, accelerated by the Iran-driven energy crisis. Mubadala also recently announced a minority stake in American renewable provider Power Factors.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Other GCC states are expected to follow suit, deepening commercial ties with Western partners in the clean energy space.

KENYA: Macron Unveils $27 Billion Investment Package for Africa

WHAT HAPPENED?

At the Africa Forward summit in Nairobi, French President Macron announced a $27 billion continental investment fund targeting energy, technology, agriculture, and maritime sectors, projecting 250,000 new jobs across Africa and France.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The move aims to rebuild French influence following a wave of coups since 2020 that fuelled anti-Paris sentiment across West Africa, with critical minerals a key motivation.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Having criticized China’s Africa policy, and particularly its management of critical minerals, as “predatory”, Macron’s pledge is likely to prompt a rival Chinese investment package, deepening the race for the continent’s critical minerals.

EGYPT: Thndr Fintech Platform Ranks #1 in Africa’s Fastest Growing Companies

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Financial Times‘ fifth ranking of Africa’s fastest growing companies placed Egyptian fintech platform Thndr at number one, with a CAGR of 311.17% from 2021 to 2024, notable in a list typically dominated by Kenyan and South African firms.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Thndr’s rise reflects Egypt’s concerted push to develop its startup ecosystem, including the establishment of government-backed VC firm EgyptVentures in 2017, pointing to the effectiveness of such public reforms.

WHAT’S NEXT?

FT cautions that the Iran war’s economic reverberations could trigger capital withdrawal across Africa, with Cairo and other governments likely to introduce new policy reforms in response.

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KENYA: Aliko Dangote Eyes Oil Refinery Instead of Tanzania

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigerian businessman Aliko Dangote revealed his intent to build a regional oil refinery for East Africa in Kenya rather than Tanzania, as originally stated. Dangote cited Mombasa’s deeper port and Kenya’s larger economy, although analysts also speculate that Tanzanian President Samia Hassan’s frustration with being unconsulted also contributed to the shift.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Iran crisis has stifled oil supplies to East Africa, spurring countries toward rationing and highlighting the need for resource self-sufficiency, something Nigeria has gained via its Dangote Refinery. Other countries are now hoping to do the same, a commercial opportunity Dangote is watching.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Dangote stated the final decision would be “in the hands” of Kenyan President William Ruto. If confirmed, land, East African financing, and protection from cheap fuel dumping from states such as Russia would be required.

RWANDA: Renewvia Aims for $750 Million Expansion

WHAT HAPPENED?

American solar energy company, Renewvia Energy Corporation, is aiming to expand into Rwanda, Uganda, Ethiopia, and the DRC to install new mini-grids at a cost of roughly $750 million.

WHY IT MATTERS?

With a population of over 1 billion, roughly 600 million Sub-Saharan Africans lack access to electricity, over 80% of the world’s unelectrified population. Renewable energy initiatives are thus vital for connecting the continent’s growing youth population to the grid.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Renewvia is still finalizing East African financing before pushing forward with its expansion.

SAUDI ARABIA: Aramco Sees Record Revenue Jump

WHAT HAPPENED?

Saudi Aramco reported a net profit increase of 73% in Q1, rising from SAR120 billion ($32 billion) in Q4 2025, the company’s highest quarterly profit since 2023.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The resurgence comes after eleven straight quarters of year-on-year profit declines. While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz raised fears, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline–carrying 7 million barrels per day to Red Sea ports–has allowed Aramco to sustain operations.

WHAT’S NEXT?

If a U.S.-Iran truce reopens the Hormuz, Aramco’s revenue gains are likely to accelerate.

UAE: Gulf Marine Services Witnesses Quarterly Profit Slump

WHAT HAPPENED?

Gulf Marine Services PLC reported a 24% drop in Q1 profit, falling from $25.6 million to $19.5 million, linked to the evacuation of four vessels due to the Iran war.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The drop highlights the lasting commercial repercussions of the Iran crisis. As tensions ease, GMS is likely to reassess its risk management strategy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Despite the decline, GMS anticipates 2026 adjusted core profit of $105-$115 million. The company acquired a mid-class vessel in January, since redeployed to Europe and operational in April, expanding its footprint outside the Middle East.

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SOUTH AFRICA: Critical Mineral Discussions Hosted with US

WHAT HAPPENED?

Preliminary discussions took place in Johannesburg last Wednesday between South Africa and the United States, focused on joint critical minerals projects. Hosted by the Washington-based think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the discussions identified various South African mining projects for the US to collaborate with.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The discussions mark the thawing of relations between South Africa and the US, which have been turbulent since President Donald Trump took office last year. It also marks another American push to break China’s grip over African critical minerals, with South Africa being a major producer of minerals such as manganese.

WHAT’S NEXT?

A list of priority projects is currently in development, which would include the Phalaborwa rare earths project. Further discussions are likely to take place this summer to formalize the list.

MALI: French Gold Contractor Withdraws

WHAT HAPPENED?

Gounkoto Mining Services, a Malian mining contractor linked to French Bouygues Construction, will not have its contract renewed with Canadian mining organization Barrick Mining in 2026. The withdrawal has resulted in layoffs of 600 personnel.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Mali is Africa’s second largest gold producer, producing roughly 100 tonnes yearly; the Loulo-Gounkoto complex, owned by Barrick Gold, is among the continent’s most prominent gold mines. Yet, operations have slowed down severely, leading to a 23% drop in Mali’s gold output last year.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With Mali having recently faced a prominent militant attack, it’s unlikely that Barrick Gold or any other mining company will be racing back to Mali to kickstart operations once more, over fears of destabilization.

SUDAN: Urea Fertilizer Up $11 As Iran War Destabilizes Agriculture

WHAT HAPPENED?

Sudan is experiencing acute agricultural price pressures due to the Iran war. A 50 kilogram (110 pound) bag of urea fertilizer is up $11 from last year; meanwhile, vegetables and dairy have risen by roughly 40%. The price spikes are attributed to supply chain shortages by the Iran war, given that the Gulf supplies over half of Sudan’s fertilizer.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Agriculture has long been Sudan’s leading sector and has become vital both for farmer communities and everyday citizens as the people grapple with a famine crisis impacting millions. Such price jumps are contributing to more expensive agricultural production, worsening the crisis.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As we move into the summer months, agricultural demand is likely to rise in conjunction with famine spreading across the nation. Unless the Iran crisis ends in the immediate short-term, Sudan’s agricultural difficulties are likely to continue.

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NIGERIA: Dangote Cement to join the London Stock Exchange

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigerian businessman Aliko Dangote announced he aims to list Dangote Cement on the London stock exchange. Africa’s largest cement producer, Dangote Cement has operations spanning 11 African countries and shares of which have risen more than 70% this year. Dangote told Financial Times that the move has been close to a decade in the making.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The listing of the Dangote Cement will open it to fresh waves of foreign investors, while at the same time, while also helping to inject new activity in the LSEG, which has faced competition from both the stock exchanges of both New York and Amsterdam.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Dangote plans to list the company this September, although confirmation of such is dependent on both the market environment and investor demand. The listing must also comply with the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s listing rules.

ERITREA: US Working Toward Sanctions Relief

WHAT HAPPENED?

Reuters reported that the United States is planning to reestablish its ties with Eritrea through sanctions relief. It follows a previous round of discussions between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and American Senior Advisor for Africa Massad Boulos mediated by Egypt.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Eritrea’s strategic location–lying along the Red Sea and situated next to the Bab el Mandeb Strait–has heightened its importance in global trade supply chains, particularly as the Strait of Hormuz faces sustained pressure. American engagement with Eritrea and the wider Horn of Africa will be essential to securing American trade interests in this part of the world.

WHAT’S NEXT?

An internal State Department note revealed that Washington will repeal the executive order which enabled the 2021 sanctions, although no timeline has been confirmed.

SUDAN: Ethiopian TPLF Denounces Accusations of Alliance with Sudan Army

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has rejected accusations by the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs of an alliance with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The Ministry claimed that the TPLF were being used as “mercenaries” by the SAF against Ethiopia, with Sudan itself being a “hub” for other anti-Ethiopian groups.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Tensions across the Horn of Africa–from Sudan’s civil war to Ethiopia’s political divisions–are increasingly overlapping. War of words can easily ignite into armed disputes, destabilizing one of the world’s most strategic chokepoints in global trade.

WHAT’S NEXT?

SAF will likely respond in kind, heightening its allegations of Ethiopian support to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a claim which Addis Ababa denies.

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TANZANIA: President Hassan Rebukes Ruto Over Refinery Plans

WHAT HAPPENED?

During a diplomatic visit by Kenyan President William Ruto, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan publicly rebuked his proposal for a joint oil refinery. The concept, first proposed on April 28 at a mining conference in Nairobi, would see an East African equivalent of Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery built in the Tanzanian port city of Tanga, with backing from Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The proposal of an East African oil refinery has received significant political backing across the region, including in Tanzania, where MPs have expressed support for it. However, without coordination with Hassan, the proposal remains a concept rather than an executed vision, leaving East Africa reliant on energy imports.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Ruto spent much of his visit clarifying the proposal. If it receives Hassan’s blessing, steps may be launched between the governments of Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda to build the refinery in collaboration with Dangote.

MOZAMBIQUE: New Mining Reforms Launch 15% Government Stake

WHAT HAPPENED?

Mozambique has drafted an addendum to the country’s current mining law, in which the national mining company, ENM, will hold at least a 15% stake in all projects. Licensing rules are also to be updated, with mining concessions to be extended up to 25 years and 10% of mining revenues to be directed to a dedicated fund.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Mozambique is rich with minerals, such as coal and graphite. Consequently, Maputo is aiming to leverage such wealth to increase revenues, part of a wider trend of resource nationalism in the continent.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The draft revision is set to be reviewed and debated in Parliament on May 7. If executed, current mining agreements may be updated to reflect such changes.

SOUTH AFRICA: Transshipment Share Falls by 10% Despite Traffic Surge

WHAT HAPPENED?

In an interview with CNBC Africa, Jacob van Rensburg of the Southern African Association of Freight Forwarders revealed that the country’s transshipment share has fallen from roughly 23-25% to 13-14%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Iran crisis has caused shipping companies to divert away from the Gulf and southward off the coast of South Africa, leading many to speculate that Pretoria would reap new revenues from the explosion in traffic. However, South Africa has lost significant numbers of marine fuel supply, with monthly bunker volumes declining from 130,000 tonnes last year to 80,000 tonnes. The drop has shifted business to other African ports, such as Port Louis in Mauritius, where fuel sales rose.

WHAT’S NEXT?

For South Africa to seize greater revenues from higher traffic, new port infrastructure will be required in order to sustain such a higher number of cargo ships and increased bunker volumes.

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ETHIOPIA: Electricity Generation Capacity Doubles

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ethiopian state-run media reported that the country’s electricity generation capacity has doubled over the past seven years, rising from 4,462 megawatts to 9,752 megawatts. Simultaneously, access to electricity across the rose rose from 44% to 54%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

African countries have invested significantly into renewable energy to diversify their energy sources away from fossil fuels. Ethiopia’s recent successes are emblematic of this wider trend, positioning Addis Ababa to become a lead renewable energy provider for the rest of East Africa.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, opened last September, has played a key role in Ethiopia’s renewable energy strides. Neighboring countries are likely to turn to Addis Ababa for alternative energy, although tensions still remain elevated over the dam between it and Egypt.

LIBYA: Crude Output At Highest Level Since 2013

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced that April production levels hit 1.4 million barrels a day, of which an estimated 1.2 million were exported, a record high not seen since 2013. NOC also revealed that its oil revenue rose from $1 billion in February to $2.9 billion in April.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Libya is home to the world’s ninth largest oil reserves and largest in Africa. A decade of civil war throughout the 2010s stifled the country’s energy sector, but Tripoli is now set to make a comeback. Not only has the country recently settled oil agreements with energy giants such as Chevron, but neighboring countries such as Egypt have also turned to it for energy imports as Gulf energy sources become limited.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As the Iran crisis continues, European states are likely to turn to North Africa as an alternative energy supplier. Already, Spain and Italy are deepening oil trade ties with Algeria; others are likely to follow with Libya.

ANGOLA: Lobito Corridor Undergoing Financing Round of Over $3 Billion

WHAT HAPPENED?

The African Finance Corporation (AFC) announced that it is in active negotiations with at least ten African and foreign financiers to raise $3-5 billion for the Lobito Corridor project. Stakeholders include South Africa’s Standard Bank, pan-African lender Ecobank, and Wall Street’s Citibank.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Lobito Corridor represents the most ambitious Western investment push in Africa’s mineral sector, acting as a hedge against China’s Tanzania-Zambia railway. The railway project will also act as a key revenue source for Angola’s economy as part of its diversification away from oil.

WHAT’S NEXT?

AFC stated that it would launch the financing effort in the third quarter of this year with the aim of a financial close in the fourth quarter of 2027. The Lobito Corridor is aiming to complete construction by 2030.

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MOROCCO: New American Act Easing Phosphate Trade

WHAT HAPPENED?

US Republican Senator Roger Marshall has introduced a new bill aiming to cut tariffs and duties on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco. Titled the “Lowering Input Costs for American Farmers Act,” the bill was brought to fruition in part by lobbying efforts of 64 agricultural groups.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Middle East crisis is shocking not only supply chains of energy, but fertilizer, as well. The consequence has heightened the significance of phosphate, which Morocco holds roughly 75% of the world’s global supply, according to Al Majalla.

WHAT’S NEXT

If approved, the bill will cut fertilizer costs by over 20%, helping to ease farmer uncertainty as the Iran crisis rages on.

DR CONGO: $100M Mining Guard Setup to Protect Critical Minerals

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Democratic Republic of Congo announced a $100 million security force to protect critical minerals sites. Dubbed the “Mining Guard”, the group will consist of 20,000 troops by 2028. In a statement, the General Inspectorate of Mines stated that the group would have funding from both the US and UAE, although the US Embassy in the DR Congo denied backing the group.

WHY IT MATTERS?

DR Congo holds vast critical mineral wealth; it holds 48% of the world’s cobalt reserve, according to the Africa Minerals Development Centre. This has made the DRC a key battleground in the global race for critical minerals, particularly given that Chinese companies dominate 80% of the country’s cobalt output, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Other countries, including those in the Gulf, are likely to offer backing to the Mining Guard in exchange for access to DRC mines.

SUDAN: UNDP’s Economic Revival Strategy Released

WHAT HAPPENED?

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) unveiled a new economic strategy to revitalize Sudan’s private sector. Titled “Sudan Private Sector Engagement Strategy 2026-2028”, the strategy describes five key interventions, such as the expansion of solar energy, to address underlying economic concerns, including electricity shortages.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Sudan’s economy has largely collapsed after three years of war. According to UNDP, average revenues of MSMEs fell by 35.8% and the economy overall has shrunk by over 40%. Yet, the report also found that 71% of closed organizations intend to reopen within a year if conditions improve. The UNDP strategy aims to construct the economic basis for this comeback.

WHAT’S NEXT?

UNDP has cautioned that long-term economic recovery is dependent on a resolution to the conflict. However, with General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan ruling out any negotiations with the Rapid Support Forces, it seems as though Sudan’s economic disarray is likely to continue.

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UAE: Exiting OPEC

WHAT HAPPENED?

The UAE officially announced on Tuesday that it will be withdrawing from both OPEC and OPEC+, after nearly five decades. The withdrawal will become effective May 1. The UAE cited its own national interests as a key driver for the decision. Abu Dhabi stated that it would continue to bring “additional production” of oil matched with market demand and conditions.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As the world’s seventh largest oil exporter, the UAE has been a key player in global energy markets, currently facing their deepest crisis due to the Iran conflict. The UAE’s withdrawal is likely to spark short-term uncertainty among energy investors worldwide, already heightened due to the Strait of Hormuz’s closure.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Expect official statements from the UAE and OPEC regarding how the withdrawal may shape both Abu Dhabi’s energy policy and OPEC as an organization.

IRAN: War Disrupts Pistachio Supplies, Soaring Prices Upward

WHAT HAPPENED?

A report from the Financial Times noted pistachio prices having reached an all-time high of $4.57 a pound in March, the highest since 2018. The ongoing war in Iran threatens to push prices upward, given that Iran is a leading exporter of pistachio.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Pistachio has seen significant demand worldwide in part due to the Dubai chocolate trend, chocolate bars filled with pistachio cream. Pistachio is also a key input for other highly demanded foods, such as ice cream. The continuation of the Iran war threatens to cut supplies for pistachio and in turn raise prices for end consumers.

WHAT’S NEXT?

While importers are turning to suppliers such as those in the US, Iranian pistachios are noted for their high concentration of oil, significantly impacting the taste. With the summer time approaching, during which demand for pistachio-related products typically rise, prices are likely to follow suit.

IRAQ: $5 Billion Oil Pipeline Project with China

WHAT HAPPENED?

Iraq announced it will be awarding a $5 billion oil pipeline project to a consortium of Chinese organizations. Known as the Basra-Haditha pipeline, the project was initially agreed to as part of the wider oil-for-projects agreement signed between Baghdad and Beijing in 2019.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Prior to the Hormuz’s closure, Iraq was exporting close to 3.4 million barrels daily via the waterway. With its closure, a key pillar of the country’s economy is under threat, prompting Baghdad to explore alternative energy supply chains.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Basra-Haditha pipeline will carry crude to Turkey, Syria, and Jordan. Officials and investors in these neighboring states will pay close attention to new developments in the agreement given their desire for alternative energy sources.

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NIGERIA: Dangote Refinery Eyes Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda as Export Markets

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigerian billionaire and Africa’s wealthiest man, Aliko Dangote, is aiming to export oil to East Africa from his Dangote Refinery. Located in Lagos and with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the aim is to act as a new supplier of oil to Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.

WHY IT MATTERS?

East Africa has felt the reeling pressure of the Iran crisis given the region’s reliance on Gulf oil imports. Dangote’s market entry in the region not only offers a new energy supply line, but could save import costs. Kenya, for instance, spent roughly $4.8 billion last fiscal year on fuel imports according to Streamline, a figure which could be lowered through internal African imports.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Pipeline systems in Mombasa and Dar es Salaam are geared toward specific international standards; Dangote’s offer must meet those requirements in order to avoid import limitations.

SIERRA LEONE: $225M Exploration Deal Unlocks Five Offshore Blocks

WHAT HAPPENED?

Sierra Leone signed a $225 million agreement with Nigerian Marginal Energy Limited. The agreement grants the organization oil exploration and development rights across five offshore blocks.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Sierra Leone is considered to have significant hydrocarbon potential, with estimates of 30 billion barrels, according to OilPrice. Yet that vast energy wealth has remained largely untapped, something which Freetown is aiming to reverse.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The timeline for the deal has yet to be publicized. Once released, an increasing number of both African and European energy investors are likely to watch closely to also make similar agreements with Sierra Leone.

ZAMBIA: $820M Lobito Railway Push Aims to Break China’s Grip on Copper

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Africa Finance Corporation and the African Development Bank have launched a joint investment of $500 million to the Lobito Atlantic Railway with a focus on transiting Zambian copper to global markets. The project is also receiving investment from Italy of $320 million.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Western-backed Lobito Corridor Project is seen as a critical initiative by the US and EU to counter China’s dominance of Africa’s mineral wealth. The recent investments signal Western-African cooperation in doing so, particularly as Zambia’s copper wealth becomes increasingly vital on the global stage.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Financial close is expected in quarter four of 2027, with the project helping to secure $3 billion for Zambia and Angola.

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