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SOUTH AFRICA: Critical Mineral Discussions Hosted with US

WHAT HAPPENED?

Preliminary discussions took place in Johannesburg last Wednesday between South Africa and the United States, focused on joint critical minerals projects. Hosted by the Washington-based think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the discussions identified various South African mining projects for the US to collaborate with.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The discussions mark the thawing of relations between South Africa and the US, which have been turbulent since President Donald Trump took office last year. It also marks another American push to break China’s grip over African critical minerals, with South Africa being a major producer of minerals such as manganese.

WHAT’S NEXT?

A list of priority projects is currently in development, which would include the Phalaborwa rare earths project. Further discussions are likely to take place this summer to formalize the list.

MALI: French Gold Contractor Withdraws

WHAT HAPPENED?

Gounkoto Mining Services, a Malian mining contractor linked to French Bouygues Construction, will not have its contract renewed with Canadian mining organization Barrick Mining in 2026. The withdrawal has resulted in layoffs of 600 personnel.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Mali is Africa’s second largest gold producer, producing roughly 100 tonnes yearly; the Loulo-Gounkoto complex, owned by Barrick Gold, is among the continent’s most prominent gold mines. Yet, operations have slowed down severely, leading to a 23% drop in Mali’s gold output last year.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With Mali having recently faced a prominent militant attack, it’s unlikely that Barrick Gold or any other mining company will be racing back to Mali to kickstart operations once more, over fears of destabilization.

SUDAN: Urea Fertilizer Up $11 As Iran War Destabilizes Agriculture

WHAT HAPPENED?

Sudan is experiencing acute agricultural price pressures due to the Iran war. A 50 kilogram (110 pound) bag of urea fertilizer is up $11 from last year; meanwhile, vegetables and dairy have risen by roughly 40%. The price spikes are attributed to supply chain shortages by the Iran war, given that the Gulf supplies over half of Sudan’s fertilizer.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Agriculture has long been Sudan’s leading sector and has become vital both for farmer communities and everyday citizens as the people grapple with a famine crisis impacting millions. Such price jumps are contributing to more expensive agricultural production, worsening the crisis.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As we move into the summer months, agricultural demand is likely to rise in conjunction with famine spreading across the nation. Unless the Iran crisis ends in the immediate short-term, Sudan’s agricultural difficulties are likely to continue.

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NIGERIA: Dangote Cement to join the London Stock Exchange

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigerian businessman Aliko Dangote announced he aims to list Dangote Cement on the London stock exchange. Africa’s largest cement producer, Dangote Cement has operations spanning 11 African countries and shares of which have risen more than 70% this year. Dangote told Financial Times that the move has been close to a decade in the making.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The listing of the Dangote Cement will open it to fresh waves of foreign investors, while at the same time, while also helping to inject new activity in the LSEG, which has faced competition from both the stock exchanges of both New York and Amsterdam.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Dangote plans to list the company this September, although confirmation of such is dependent on both the market environment and investor demand. The listing must also comply with the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s listing rules.

ERITREA: US Working Toward Sanctions Relief

WHAT HAPPENED?

Reuters reported that the United States is planning to reestablish its ties with Eritrea through sanctions relief. It follows a previous round of discussions between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and American Senior Advisor for Africa Massad Boulos mediated by Egypt.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Eritrea’s strategic location–lying along the Red Sea and situated next to the Bab el Mandeb Strait–has heightened its importance in global trade supply chains, particularly as the Strait of Hormuz faces sustained pressure. American engagement with Eritrea and the wider Horn of Africa will be essential to securing American trade interests in this part of the world.

WHAT’S NEXT?

An internal State Department note revealed that Washington will repeal the executive order which enabled the 2021 sanctions, although no timeline has been confirmed.

SUDAN: Ethiopian TPLF Denounces Accusations of Alliance with Sudan Army

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has rejected accusations by the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs of an alliance with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The Ministry claimed that the TPLF were being used as “mercenaries” by the SAF against Ethiopia, with Sudan itself being a “hub” for other anti-Ethiopian groups.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Tensions across the Horn of Africa–from Sudan’s civil war to Ethiopia’s political divisions–are increasingly overlapping. War of words can easily ignite into armed disputes, destabilizing one of the world’s most strategic chokepoints in global trade.

WHAT’S NEXT?

SAF will likely respond in kind, heightening its allegations of Ethiopian support to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a claim which Addis Ababa denies.

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Last week saw one of the most significant advancements in the Lobito Corridor project. Both the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) and African Development Bank (ADB) announced a joint investment of $500 million to the railway; AFC also announced plans to launch a new financing effort in the third quarter of this year, with the aim of a financial close in the fourth quarter of 2027.

This would culminate in the project’s completion in 2030. AFC also revealed that it was in talks with at least ten African and foreign financiers to raise an additional $3-5 billion for the project, including with Wall Street’s Citigroup.

At a time when the world needs more cobalt and copper for the energy transition, the stakes of the Lobito Corridor couldn’t be higher. This piece will act as your guide for understanding why that is.

What is the Lobito Corridor?

The Lobito Corridor is a railway project that connects the Copperbelt, a 450 kilometer mineral-dense region along the Democratic Republic of the Congo-Zambia border, to the Atlantic Port of Lobito in Angola. The journey traverses through key rail hubs, such as Kolwezi in the DRC, before arriving at Lobito.

Worth $10 billion, the Lobito Corridor will extend across 1,739 km, with a potential capacity of up to 20 million tons.

The project has been one spanning close to a century. The Benguela Railway, the central axis of the Lobito Corridor, was first constructed in Angola in 1931 during the Portuguese colonial period. Following heavy damage sustained during the Angolan Civil War, Benguela underwent rehabilitation lasting until 2014, with repairs costing up to $2 billion.

In 2023, a consortium was formed to oversee the corridor as part of a 30-year concession, investing $455 million in Angola and $100 million in the DRC.

Why is it so important?

The Copperbelt is home to roughly 73% of the world’s cobalt and a major share of its copper, two critical minerals used in both everyday and emerging technologies. Virtually every device you use (including the one you’re reading this piece on) relies on copper and cobalt. The advancement of artificial intelligence and adjacent technologies, such as data centers, is heightening the need for such minerals, demanding greater access that the corridor is designed to deliver.

Speed of trade is also at play. A trial shipment by Ivanhoe Mines in late 2023 demonstrated that copper concentrate could reach Lobito in 8 days, whereas road transport to the Port of Durban in South Africa took 25 days. That speedier transit means lower costs for both exporters and importers, as well as less capital locked in work-in-progress inventory.

The “why” behind the corridor also bleeds into the geopolitical. Beijing has a stranglehold over the mineral supply chains of Africa; in the DRC alone, Chinese firms control 80% of cobalt output, with Beijing’s imports of African minerals and metals having reached approximately $50 billion in 2022–a stark contrast to the EU at just under $20 billion and the US well below $10 billion, according to The Economist.

For Western governments and businesses, the Lobito Corridor is the gateway to wrestling access to African critical minerals away from Beijing. The US International Development Finance Corporation signed a $553 million investment into the project at the end of 2025, while the EU announced it had mobilized €2 billion (~$2.31 billion). European countries have also made individual contributions; Italy invested $320 million in 2024.

Will it deliver?

Exciting announcements and investment packages are one thing, but actual capacity is another.

The Lobito Corridor can currently handle 200,000 tons yearly, a far cry from its stated aim. Furthermore, the Zambia and DRC extensions remain unbuilt; until they are, miners still need trucks to reach the railhead.

If the corridor does live up to its potential, it could handle the entirety of the DRC’s cobalt exports with room to spare. For EV manufacturers, battery producers, and Western governments trying to diversify supply chains away from Chinese-controlled logistics, that’s transformational.

But it also risks creating a new vulnerability: the global energy transition could come to depend significantly on a single rail line in a historically unstable region. As the Iran crisis has demonstrated with oil, heavy reliance on one single node of supply always carries risk.

The Lobito Corridor is both the most credible Western counter-move in the minerals race and a project still years from delivering on its promise. The real test won’t be whether the money is committed, but whether the trains will actually run.

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TANZANIA: President Hassan Rebukes Ruto Over Refinery Plans

WHAT HAPPENED?

During a diplomatic visit by Kenyan President William Ruto, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan publicly rebuked his proposal for a joint oil refinery. The concept, first proposed on April 28 at a mining conference in Nairobi, would see an East African equivalent of Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery built in the Tanzanian port city of Tanga, with backing from Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The proposal of an East African oil refinery has received significant political backing across the region, including in Tanzania, where MPs have expressed support for it. However, without coordination with Hassan, the proposal remains a concept rather than an executed vision, leaving East Africa reliant on energy imports.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Ruto spent much of his visit clarifying the proposal. If it receives Hassan’s blessing, steps may be launched between the governments of Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda to build the refinery in collaboration with Dangote.

MOZAMBIQUE: New Mining Reforms Launch 15% Government Stake

WHAT HAPPENED?

Mozambique has drafted an addendum to the country’s current mining law, in which the national mining company, ENM, will hold at least a 15% stake in all projects. Licensing rules are also to be updated, with mining concessions to be extended up to 25 years and 10% of mining revenues to be directed to a dedicated fund.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Mozambique is rich with minerals, such as coal and graphite. Consequently, Maputo is aiming to leverage such wealth to increase revenues, part of a wider trend of resource nationalism in the continent.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The draft revision is set to be reviewed and debated in Parliament on May 7. If executed, current mining agreements may be updated to reflect such changes.

SOUTH AFRICA: Transshipment Share Falls by 10% Despite Traffic Surge

WHAT HAPPENED?

In an interview with CNBC Africa, Jacob van Rensburg of the Southern African Association of Freight Forwarders revealed that the country’s transshipment share has fallen from roughly 23-25% to 13-14%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Iran crisis has caused shipping companies to divert away from the Gulf and southward off the coast of South Africa, leading many to speculate that Pretoria would reap new revenues from the explosion in traffic. However, South Africa has lost significant numbers of marine fuel supply, with monthly bunker volumes declining from 130,000 tonnes last year to 80,000 tonnes. The drop has shifted business to other African ports, such as Port Louis in Mauritius, where fuel sales rose.

WHAT’S NEXT?

For South Africa to seize greater revenues from higher traffic, new port infrastructure will be required in order to sustain such a higher number of cargo ships and increased bunker volumes.

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After nearly 60 years, the UAE withdrew from OPEC, the world’s leading oil cartel, on Friday. Since then last week, widespread discussions have been sparked worldwide. As the globe grapples with its largest energy crisis in decades, the UAE’s exit from OPEC was seemingly adding more fuel to the fire of uncertainty.

At a time of confusion and debate in the energy realm, the aim of this article is to distill OPEC and what’s next with the Emirates now out.

What is OPEC?

Formed in 1960 by five countries—Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Venezuela—the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was designed to reclaim control over oil markets and prices from private companies such as BP and Shell, and return it to oil-producing governments. Other countries would later join the organization, such as the UAE in 1967.

OPEC’s market power became evident in 1973, when in the aftermath of the third Arab-Israeli war, Arab member states launched an embargo on Western nations that sent shockwaves through oil prices worldwide.

Yet since then, OPEC’s grip over the global oil market has weakened. American companies began experimenting with and introducing new production and extraction techniques in the early 2000s, such as fracking and horizontal drilling. In what became known as the “Shale Revolution,” the US climbed to become the world’s leading producer, with output now sitting at roughly 13.8 million barrels per day (bpd), a figure that barely existed 15 years ago.

The result has been a sustained challenge to OPEC’s market dominance, even with the formation of OPEC+ in 2016, a coalition of 10 non-member allies. A look at the world’s top 15 oil producers includes four non-OPEC members—the US, Canada, China, Norway—while another four are OPEC+ members, just over half the list.

Even some of those included, such as Nigeria and Libya, are still building the infrastructure and trade relations needed to become influential energy exporters. The end result has been a fall in OPEC’s share of global production from its 70% peak in the 1970s to currently roughly 30%, despite the group holding over 80% of the world’s proven reserves.

Why is the UAE leaving?

At a time when the Emirates are diversifying their economy away from oil, Abu Dhabi’s withdrawal is, at its core, an opportunity-cost calculation. With a production capacity of roughly 4.5 million bpd but a quota of just 3 to 3.2 million bpd, the country has been leaving roughly $30 billion in annual revenue on the table, a restraint not felt by non-OPEC members.

That recovered revenue could fund new diversification initiatives, fueling (pun intended) a broader shift away from fossil fuels.

The IEA estimates that OPEC+ holds roughly 5.5 million bpd in spare capacity, 90% of which sits in the Gulf. The UAE’s withdrawal has cut that supply, which as a means of support, Abu Dhabi announced a new production target of 5 million bpd by 2027.

With the UAE’s departure, OPEC’s share of global liquids supply could erode to roughly 27%, down from its current 32%.

By no means does this render the UAE a minor energy player, nor does it make OPEC irrelevant. What it does signal is a shift in the organization’s role: from price setter to price influencer.

What’s Next for OPEC?

What the 1973 crisis taught us—an event observers are revisiting as a potentially even more severe disruption unfolds—is that OPEC’s true power has always been the power of coordinated action. The UAE’s exit chips away at that, leaving a bloc whose market dominance has steadily eroded since its inception.

The numbers haven’t killed OPEC. But they have revealed that as global energy dynamics shift, so too will its role.

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ETHIOPIA: Electricity Generation Capacity Doubles

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ethiopian state-run media reported that the country’s electricity generation capacity has doubled over the past seven years, rising from 4,462 megawatts to 9,752 megawatts. Simultaneously, access to electricity across the rose rose from 44% to 54%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

African countries have invested significantly into renewable energy to diversify their energy sources away from fossil fuels. Ethiopia’s recent successes are emblematic of this wider trend, positioning Addis Ababa to become a lead renewable energy provider for the rest of East Africa.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, opened last September, has played a key role in Ethiopia’s renewable energy strides. Neighboring countries are likely to turn to Addis Ababa for alternative energy, although tensions still remain elevated over the dam between it and Egypt.

LIBYA: Crude Output At Highest Level Since 2013

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced that April production levels hit 1.4 million barrels a day, of which an estimated 1.2 million were exported, a record high not seen since 2013. NOC also revealed that its oil revenue rose from $1 billion in February to $2.9 billion in April.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Libya is home to the world’s ninth largest oil reserves and largest in Africa. A decade of civil war throughout the 2010s stifled the country’s energy sector, but Tripoli is now set to make a comeback. Not only has the country recently settled oil agreements with energy giants such as Chevron, but neighboring countries such as Egypt have also turned to it for energy imports as Gulf energy sources become limited.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As the Iran crisis continues, European states are likely to turn to North Africa as an alternative energy supplier. Already, Spain and Italy are deepening oil trade ties with Algeria; others are likely to follow with Libya.

ANGOLA: Lobito Corridor Undergoing Financing Round of Over $3 Billion

WHAT HAPPENED?

The African Finance Corporation (AFC) announced that it is in active negotiations with at least ten African and foreign financiers to raise $3-5 billion for the Lobito Corridor project. Stakeholders include South Africa’s Standard Bank, pan-African lender Ecobank, and Wall Street’s Citibank.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Lobito Corridor represents the most ambitious Western investment push in Africa’s mineral sector, acting as a hedge against China’s Tanzania-Zambia railway. The railway project will also act as a key revenue source for Angola’s economy as part of its diversification away from oil.

WHAT’S NEXT?

AFC stated that it would launch the financing effort in the third quarter of this year with the aim of a financial close in the fourth quarter of 2027. The Lobito Corridor is aiming to complete construction by 2030.

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MOROCCO: New American Act Easing Phosphate Trade

WHAT HAPPENED?

US Republican Senator Roger Marshall has introduced a new bill aiming to cut tariffs and duties on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco. Titled the “Lowering Input Costs for American Farmers Act,” the bill was brought to fruition in part by lobbying efforts of 64 agricultural groups.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Middle East crisis is shocking not only supply chains of energy, but fertilizer, as well. The consequence has heightened the significance of phosphate, which Morocco holds roughly 75% of the world’s global supply, according to Al Majalla.

WHAT’S NEXT

If approved, the bill will cut fertilizer costs by over 20%, helping to ease farmer uncertainty as the Iran crisis rages on.

DR CONGO: $100M Mining Guard Setup to Protect Critical Minerals

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Democratic Republic of Congo announced a $100 million security force to protect critical minerals sites. Dubbed the “Mining Guard”, the group will consist of 20,000 troops by 2028. In a statement, the General Inspectorate of Mines stated that the group would have funding from both the US and UAE, although the US Embassy in the DR Congo denied backing the group.

WHY IT MATTERS?

DR Congo holds vast critical mineral wealth; it holds 48% of the world’s cobalt reserve, according to the Africa Minerals Development Centre. This has made the DRC a key battleground in the global race for critical minerals, particularly given that Chinese companies dominate 80% of the country’s cobalt output, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Other countries, including those in the Gulf, are likely to offer backing to the Mining Guard in exchange for access to DRC mines.

SUDAN: UNDP’s Economic Revival Strategy Released

WHAT HAPPENED?

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) unveiled a new economic strategy to revitalize Sudan’s private sector. Titled “Sudan Private Sector Engagement Strategy 2026-2028”, the strategy describes five key interventions, such as the expansion of solar energy, to address underlying economic concerns, including electricity shortages.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Sudan’s economy has largely collapsed after three years of war. According to UNDP, average revenues of MSMEs fell by 35.8% and the economy overall has shrunk by over 40%. Yet, the report also found that 71% of closed organizations intend to reopen within a year if conditions improve. The UNDP strategy aims to construct the economic basis for this comeback.

WHAT’S NEXT?

UNDP has cautioned that long-term economic recovery is dependent on a resolution to the conflict. However, with General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan ruling out any negotiations with the Rapid Support Forces, it seems as though Sudan’s economic disarray is likely to continue.

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The New Dependency

As the world moves into the hot summer season, eyes on the Strait of Hormuz are intensifying. Since the Iran crisis began, roughly 20 million barrels a day—about 25% of global seaborne oil—has been choked off. Reuters reports cumulative losses having reached 624 million barrels over 52 days, a figure that staggers even seasoned energy analysts.

Even as hopes rise for an end to the crisis amid Pakistan-mediated peace talks, the systemic ripple effects will last years to come. Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), has been unambiguous: the “damage is done.”

The immediate casualties are well-documented: oil above $120 a barrel today, freight costs surging, insurance markets seizing up. But the more consequential story may be what the crisis is doing to the energy systems built to replace oil.

For decades, those who championed renewable energy warned that continued dependence on fossil fuels would eventually produce a calamity like this. Governments across the world are now listening.

The UK announced a March 15 package of clean energy measures, including the introduction of “plug-in” solar panels, explicitly framed around combating energy insecurity. In China, which dominates the global solar industry, exports doubled in March alone, reaching 68GW, according to CGTN Europe.

The market logic has shifted. The energy transition is no longer driven primarily by climate consensus. It’s now driven by something governments find easier to sell: national security.

But there’s a problem embedded in this pivot: the clean energy system isn’t resource-independent, either. Solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles all require copper, lithium, cobalt, and rare earths at enormous scale. Critical minerals accumulate in infrastructure, and that infrastructure has to be built, replaced, and expanded continuously.

The numbers are striking. The IEA projects critical mineral demand growth of 3.5 times current levels by 2030, with lithium alone potentially requiring 40 times today’s supply. The U.S. Geological Survey projects global demand for key critical minerals to increase by 400-600% by 2040 to support clean energy technologies. These were already steep curves before the Iran war; the crisis is steepening them further.

The New Scramble

The backdoor dealmaking has already begun and the pace is accelerating. USA Rare Earth recently completed a $2.8 billion acquisition of the Brazilian rare earth mine Serra Verde. The US and India have announced a joint partnership to restart copper and cobalt mine production in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The message being signaled: mineral security is now as urgent as energy security.

Gulf countries, despite experiencing mounting fiscal pressure from the Iran war, aren’t sitting out of this race. More than a week into the war, American investment firm Cove Capital and Saudi conglomerate Abdel Hadi Abdullah Al-Qahtani Group of Companies (AHQ) announced a joint multibillion-dollar fund to invest in critical mineral projects across Africa. Capital that might have retreated is instead being redeployed toward the next strategic frontier.

That frontier is increasingly African. The continent holds approximately 30% of the world’s known critical mineral reserves and is projected to supply 10% of global rare earths by 2030, alongside dominant shares of cobalt and manganese.

Meanwhile, China’s structural position complicates every Western and Gulf strategy. Controlling approximately 90% of rare earth processing globally, Beijing’s leverage over the energy transition doesn’t depend on owning the mines. Its doubling of solar exports in March is a signal of that: the transition is accelerating and China intends to be the one supplying it.

The oil concentration that defined the Gulf’s geopolitical power for over half a century may, over time, give way to mineral concentration across the mines of the DRC, South Africa, and beyond, with processing power anchored, for now, in China.

That’s a trend the Iran war most certainly did not start. But it has accelerated it, loudly and irreversibly.

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UAE: Exiting OPEC

WHAT HAPPENED?

The UAE officially announced on Tuesday that it will be withdrawing from both OPEC and OPEC+, after nearly five decades. The withdrawal will become effective May 1. The UAE cited its own national interests as a key driver for the decision. Abu Dhabi stated that it would continue to bring “additional production” of oil matched with market demand and conditions.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As the world’s seventh largest oil exporter, the UAE has been a key player in global energy markets, currently facing their deepest crisis due to the Iran conflict. The UAE’s withdrawal is likely to spark short-term uncertainty among energy investors worldwide, already heightened due to the Strait of Hormuz’s closure.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Expect official statements from the UAE and OPEC regarding how the withdrawal may shape both Abu Dhabi’s energy policy and OPEC as an organization.

IRAN: War Disrupts Pistachio Supplies, Soaring Prices Upward

WHAT HAPPENED?

A report from the Financial Times noted pistachio prices having reached an all-time high of $4.57 a pound in March, the highest since 2018. The ongoing war in Iran threatens to push prices upward, given that Iran is a leading exporter of pistachio.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Pistachio has seen significant demand worldwide in part due to the Dubai chocolate trend, chocolate bars filled with pistachio cream. Pistachio is also a key input for other highly demanded foods, such as ice cream. The continuation of the Iran war threatens to cut supplies for pistachio and in turn raise prices for end consumers.

WHAT’S NEXT?

While importers are turning to suppliers such as those in the US, Iranian pistachios are noted for their high concentration of oil, significantly impacting the taste. With the summer time approaching, during which demand for pistachio-related products typically rise, prices are likely to follow suit.

IRAQ: $5 Billion Oil Pipeline Project with China

WHAT HAPPENED?

Iraq announced it will be awarding a $5 billion oil pipeline project to a consortium of Chinese organizations. Known as the Basra-Haditha pipeline, the project was initially agreed to as part of the wider oil-for-projects agreement signed between Baghdad and Beijing in 2019.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Prior to the Hormuz’s closure, Iraq was exporting close to 3.4 million barrels daily via the waterway. With its closure, a key pillar of the country’s economy is under threat, prompting Baghdad to explore alternative energy supply chains.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Basra-Haditha pipeline will carry crude to Turkey, Syria, and Jordan. Officials and investors in these neighboring states will pay close attention to new developments in the agreement given their desire for alternative energy sources.

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A Bank Born in Eleven Months

Last week, Oman launched its long-awaited African Bank of Oman in Luanda. An investment bank, the institution primarily focuses on energy-related transactions between Angola and the Middle East. Eleven months after Angolan President João Lourenço visited Muscat, Oman had converted diplomacy into a licensed bank.

The move comes off the heels of bilateral agreements between Oman and Botswana covering renewable energy, mineral exploration, and infrastructure.

These developments upend what market analysts had predicted in the wake of the Iran war. With GCC countries emerging as key hubs through which global capital transits, spectators speculated that those very hubs would feel the pressure of the crisis. Mohamed El-Erian of the Financial Times, for instance, warned that the war is a “risk” to Gulf foreign investments.

Yet Muscat’s recent dealings with Southern Africa flip this presumption on its head. Significantly, these aren’t just developments deepening existing agreements. The African Bank of Oman aims to set up new trade ties between Southern Africa and the GCC by targeting roughly 50 multinationals and public entities.

Similarly, the Botswana deal backs a joint 500 MW solar plant, double Botswana’s current generation capacity; officials describe it as part of a wider initiative consisting of 3,000 MW of energy projects. A joint exploration pact was also signed between the Botswana Geoscience Institute and Minerals Development Oman to explore mineral-rich areas across Botswana, covering nearly 70% of the country’s land.

An Empire Remembers Its Ports

While GCC investments in Africa are far from abnormal, the continent has long been dominated by the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. During a time of fiscal pressure, Oman’s new investments represent a turning point in the country’s capital strategy.

Oman’s Vision 2040, similar to Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, demands diversification away from hydrocarbons, turning to other industries and resources, chief among them critical minerals. In January of last year, Oman made its first export of copper concentrate in 30 years. Later in August, Muscat signed three mineral exploration and mining agreements worth a combined $500 million, covering copper, chromium, salts, and industrial minerals.

Yet these minerals are found not along the shorelines of the Gulf, but deep in the mines of Central and Southern Africa, drawing the Sultanate’s footprint there. Last December, Muscat hosted the “Advantage Oman – South Africa” business dialogue, focused on fostering deeper economic ties with Pretoria; mining was one of four key sectors of focus.

The investments go beyond Southern Africa. With the Omani Empire once holding territory along East Africa, Muscat is reviving its longstanding economic ties with the Horn. Last May, the country hosted the two-day Oman-East Africa Business Forum and East Africa Trade and Investment Exhibition 2025, inviting delegates from across East Africa to engage in investment discussions surrounding port infrastructure and 5G.

Not Catching Up, Carving Out.

In this regard, Oman may be catching up with its Gulf neighbors. According to Business Insider Africa, the GCC invested over $179 billion in Africa, yet those investments have largely been driven by Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, and Doha.

The Sultanate’s aim isn’t to close the gap or compete head-on. Rather, it’s to contribute to the GCC’s wider deepening of African ties through deals and agreements that advance its own national interests.

The concerns of analysts over the Iran crisis’ capital reverberations remain legitimate. Yet the GCC remains far outside the global finance firing line. If anything, the Gulf war has prompted the GCC to assess and reorient its foreign investments toward new priorities. Oman’s deepening financial footprint across Africa represents exactly that reorientation.

For the Sultanate, this is just the beginning. The real question: Can Oman turn these flagship deals and conferences into a repeatable template across more African markets?

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NIGERIA: Dangote Refinery Eyes Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda as Export Markets

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigerian billionaire and Africa’s wealthiest man, Aliko Dangote, is aiming to export oil to East Africa from his Dangote Refinery. Located in Lagos and with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the aim is to act as a new supplier of oil to Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.

WHY IT MATTERS?

East Africa has felt the reeling pressure of the Iran crisis given the region’s reliance on Gulf oil imports. Dangote’s market entry in the region not only offers a new energy supply line, but could save import costs. Kenya, for instance, spent roughly $4.8 billion last fiscal year on fuel imports according to Streamline, a figure which could be lowered through internal African imports.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Pipeline systems in Mombasa and Dar es Salaam are geared toward specific international standards; Dangote’s offer must meet those requirements in order to avoid import limitations.

SIERRA LEONE: $225M Exploration Deal Unlocks Five Offshore Blocks

WHAT HAPPENED?

Sierra Leone signed a $225 million agreement with Nigerian Marginal Energy Limited. The agreement grants the organization oil exploration and development rights across five offshore blocks.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Sierra Leone is considered to have significant hydrocarbon potential, with estimates of 30 billion barrels, according to OilPrice. Yet that vast energy wealth has remained largely untapped, something which Freetown is aiming to reverse.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The timeline for the deal has yet to be publicized. Once released, an increasing number of both African and European energy investors are likely to watch closely to also make similar agreements with Sierra Leone.

ZAMBIA: $820M Lobito Railway Push Aims to Break China’s Grip on Copper

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Africa Finance Corporation and the African Development Bank have launched a joint investment of $500 million to the Lobito Atlantic Railway with a focus on transiting Zambian copper to global markets. The project is also receiving investment from Italy of $320 million.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Western-backed Lobito Corridor Project is seen as a critical initiative by the US and EU to counter China’s dominance of Africa’s mineral wealth. The recent investments signal Western-African cooperation in doing so, particularly as Zambia’s copper wealth becomes increasingly vital on the global stage.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Financial close is expected in quarter four of 2027, with the project helping to secure $3 billion for Zambia and Angola.

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MOROCCO: New LNG Terminals to Enhance Energy Security

WHAT HAPPENED?

Morocco announced plans to construct seven new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in an effort to diversify energy sources, accelerate low-carbon transition, and deepen energy security. Developing along the country’s coastlines, the terminals will be at the ports of Nador West Med, Tanger, Mohammedia, Jorf Lasfar, and Dakhla.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As a net energy importer, Morocco has faced strain due to the Iran crisis; earlier this month, the Kingdom saw fuel costs increase by roughly 30%. Construction of new LNG terminals will expand Rabat’s energy sources amid growing demand for gas.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The terminals will be connected to both strategic industrial hubs and the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline. Consequently, expect to see further energy projects across the Kingdom integrated with one another.

ZAMBIA: BHP Making an African Comeback with Copper Exploration

WHAT HAPPENED?

Global miner BHP is set to conduct large-scale copper exploration in Zambia. The announcement came from the Zambian Ministry of Mines and Minerals Development, which stated that BHP will target large copper deposits.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The announcement shows growing interest from both public and private actors in Africa’s mineral wealth. The move also marks BHP’s comeback in Africa following spinning off South32 in 2015.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As the second largest copper producer in the continent, Zambia is likely to see increasing interest from other mining organizations, particularly as copper demand rises, with an S&P Global report in January predicting a surge in demand of 50% by 2040.

SUDAN: Saudi Arabia Pauses Pakistan Arms Deal

WHAT HAPPENED?

Saudi Arabia has requested Pakistan to pause its $1.5 billion arms deal with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which includes ten Karakoram-8 light-attack aircraft, over 200 surveillance drones, and possibly additional JF-17 fighters. Saudi Arabia had initially agreed to finance the deal, according to Business Insider Africa.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The ongoing Iran crisis has led to Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia to reorient their defense priorities inwards to boost their security. For Pakistan, which has increasingly been eying African defense markets, the deal’s pause reflects a halt in that ambition.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The SAF will likely turn to other actors for aerial military support, particularly as the Rapid Support Forces heavily engage in drone warfare.

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KEY FACTS

• WHAT HAPPENED? The Iran crisis is pushing countries worldwide to increase defense spending, including Algeria and Morocco

• WHY IT MATTERS? Algeria and Morocco already have a military competition and the Iran crisis is deepening that struggle

• WHAT’S NEXT? As the Gulf war continues and energy markets remain volatile, both countries are likely to engage in increased defense spending

Across the desert dunes of the Maghreb, two countries—Algeria and Morocco—navigate a rising competition. Their enduring dispute over Western Sahara seems to be entering a new chapter: The ongoing Iran crisis is heightening the importance of both energy and maritime trade for Europe, expanding their territorial dispute into new waters. As the trade competition deepens, it’ll inevitably bleed into the military struggle between the two, as well.

In 2020, when the Western Sahara ceasefire collapsed, Algeria allocated $9.11 billion to defense compared to Morocco’s $5.38 billion. By 2024, Algerian spending had exploded to $21.8 billion, nearly 8% of GDP, while Morocco held steady at $5.52 billion. The spending ratio, once relatively balanced, now stands at nearly 4:1.

But spending reveals only part of the picture. Morocco’s steady defense investments mask deepening military integration with the West: The US and France supply cutting-edge aerial technology, while normalization with Israel has advanced to joint defense systems development, per a military agreement signed this January. Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports emerged earlier this year of Algeria acquiring Russian Su-57 stealth fighters, deepening its Eastern orientation.

Geography as Destiny

The 2020s have been transformative for Algerian military investment: From 2014 to 2024, Algiers poured $128.37 billion into defense, nearly triple Morocco’s $47.44 billion during the same period. The most striking figure: a 100.88% year-over-year spending increase in 2023 alone.

What’s driving this surge? Consider Algeria’s geography: to the west, the Western Sahara dispute; to the east, chaotic Libya; to the south, insurgencies in Mali and Niger threatening spillover. When Algeria shot down a Malian drone last April, it revealed just how fragile its borders have become, translating into strengthening of its military apparatus.

While Rabat did boost spending following the 2020 ceasefire collapse—jumping from $4.83 billion to $5.38 billion in 2021, a 44% baseline increase—its investment philosophy emphasizes controlled growth over shock spending.

Again, geography explains much of this divergence. Morocco faces fewer immediate threats along its borders, allowing for measured, long-term procurement cycles. Even at its 2024 peak, defense spending represented just 3.52% of GDP, less than half of Algeria’s proportion.

The year 2022 proved pivotal for both nations, though for reasons beyond their rivalry: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent global energy prices soaring and pushed European powers to court North African gas suppliers. Both Morocco and Algeria, particularly Algiers, suddenly found themselves with greater market leverage, and with it, greater reason to maintain military readiness as international competition for influence intensified.

Eastern Guns vs Western Systems

More revealing though than spending levels are procurement patterns. Algeria’s military remains overwhelmingly oriented toward Eastern suppliers: 61% of arms imports come from Russia, another 15% from China. Approximately 413 of Algeria’s active aircraft originated from the Soviet Union, a legacy relationship that Moscow continues to cultivate with advanced systems like the Su-57.

Morocco, by contrast, has built its defense architecture firmly within the Western orbit. The US supplies 59% of its arms imports, France another 26%. Both countries dominate Morocco’s aircraft weaponry pipeline. Israel has likewise emerged as a growing important partner, providing 3.7% of Moroccan arms imports. At least 51% of Rabat’s defense missiles now come from Israeli sources, according to DW.

The Road Ahead

As the Iran crisis continues, the Algeria-Morocco rivalry has long transcended its regional origins. The 4:1 spending gap, the divergent alliance structures, and the competing procurement philosophies represent more than a bilateral dispute; they reflect two fundamentally different visions of security and global alignment playing out in a region that increasingly matters to energy markets. And as those markets spiral, the threat of military outbreak anywhere in the world heightens, too, pushing countries across the world—including Algeria and Morocco—to fortify their first lines of defense.

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ALGERIA: New Energy Tender As Markets Falter

WHAT HAPPENED?

Algeria has launched a global bidding round for oil and gas exploration across seven fields. According to Samir Bekhti, president of Algeria’s National Agency for the Valorization of Hydrocarbon Resources, there are over 1.8 billion barrels of oil and 8.63 billion cubic meters of natural gas across the seven fields.

WHY IT MATTERS?

With Gulf energy supply limited, Algeria is increasingly viewed as an alternative gas supplier, especially by Europe. With the Iran ceasefire shaky, energy markets will follow, intensifying oil investment in Algeria.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Western energy firms, particularly those in Italy and Spain—Algeria’s closest European partners in energy trade—are likely to make bids in the coming weeks as part of the tender, especially as the Iran crisis ensues.

OMAN: Investment Bank Launch in Angola

WHAT HAPPENED?

Oman has established a new investment bank in Angola. Titled the African Bank of Oman, the bank focuses on cross-border payments between Angola and the Middle East, particularly in gas and oil.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The bank represents another significant push by Oman to invest in Africa, diversifying GCC investments in the continent beyond Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It also aligns with Angola’s ongoing economic reforms which aim to secure foreign investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Details on the bank’s capitalization has yet to be disclosed. More information is to be expected in the coming weeks regarding cross-border transactions.

DRC: New Mining Capital Push

WHAT HAPPENED?

Rome Resources, the UK-based DRC-focused mining exploration company, announced fresh capital to extend drilling operations at Kalayi and explore new targets in Mont Agoma. The capital, worth about $1.6 million, was raised from existing shareholders.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The announcement marks another Western effort to entrench its foothold in the DRC’s mineral rich landscape. With the DRC’s mineral supply chains dominated by China, both the US and Europe are seeking to establish their own presence.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Chinese companies are likely to respond in kind by the increasing Western investments in DRC, heightening bid competitions across the country.

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KEY FACTS

• WHAT HAPPENED? The Iran war has disrupted diamond trade to Dubai, squeezing the natural diamond pipeline from both the supply and demand sides

• WHY IT MATTERS? Natural diamonds were already losing demand to cheaper, lab-grown alternatives before the conflict began. The Gulf crisis is now accelerating that pressure

• WHAT’S NEXT? Even if the conflict is temporary, the buyers and jewelers who pivot toward lab-grown diamonds during this window may not pivot back

Engagement season will be here before you know it. But the ring you buy this year may look and cost very differently than the one your parents bought.

The global diamond trade was already navigating one of its most consequential debates in decades: whether natural diamonds can hold their ground against the surging appeal of synthetic, lab-grown alternatives. Then the Iran war arrived, and the question became more urgent. The Gulf crisis is throwing fuel into the fire that is the natural diamond pipeline.

A Trade Hub Under Siege

To understand the stakes, you need to understand how central Dubai has become to the global diamond economy, which is ironic given that the UAE has no mines of its own. In 2021, the UAE emerged as the world’s largest rough-diamond trading hub, with $22.8 billion traded. By 2024, it was exporting $9.83 billion in rough diamonds, rivaling Antwerp.

That role has shaped the UAE’s diplomatic footprint across Africa, home to seven of the world’s ten largest diamond-producing countries. Angola, for instance, directed 78.6% of its diamond exports to the UAE in 2025, more than any other destination including Antwerp.

Now that connective tissue is under strain. Jewelry intelligence firm Rapaport reported that diamond dealers postponed rough-diamond tenders in Dubai following the escalation of the Iran conflict, a significant signal, since even a brief pause disrupts price discovery and manufacturer planning across the whole midstream. The UAE supplies over two-thirds of India’s diamond imports, making India, the world’s largest diamond cutting and polishing hub, directly exposed to any Gulf friction.

The supply disruptions bleed into the demand side, too. Reuters reported that luxury brands at Mall of the Emirates saw sales drops of 30-50% in March versus the prior year. In a region accounting for roughly 5% of global luxury sales, that’s not a rounding error. Add maritime war-risk insurance premiums surging over 1,000% on Gulf shipping routes, and the cost of moving natural diamonds through their primary corridor has become materially more expensive almost overnight.

What makes this moment particularly consequential is that the Iran war arrived on top of a natural diamond industry already under serious pressure. India’s cut and polished diamond exports fell to their lowest level in over two decades in 2024, dropping 16.8% to $13.3 billion according to the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council. Botswana, the world’s second-largest diamond producer saw rough sales fall roughly 52% in 2024. The Iran war isn’t the origin of these problems; it’s an accelerant.

The Synthetic Wildcard

While the war tightens the screws on natural diamonds, synthetic alternatives are operating in an almost parallel universe. Lab-grown diamonds are manufactured in controlled environments; China alone contributes 40-50% of global synthetic diamond production according to Coherent Market Insights.

The value proposition for synthetic diamonds has always rested on price: synthetic stones can cost 80-90% less than comparable natural diamonds, according to Fyne Jewellery. That gap has widened as production scaled up. Now, with natural prices facing upward pressure from Gulf logistics costs and supply disruptions, the differential stands to become even more pronounced. For a buyer weighing a $3,000 lab-grown stone against a $15,000 natural equivalent, the Iran war goes beyond geopolitics, it becomes a price signal.

The Iran conflict may be temporary, and Dubai’s role as the world’s dominant diamond trading hub is unlikely to evaporate. But the structural shift toward synthetic diamonds was already underway, and the war is accelerating the very conditions that make lab-grown alternatives more attractive.

The luxury-trade model the diamond industry relied on for decades assumed frictionless mobility: stones moving quickly through a stable corridor to affluent consumers. That assumption no longer holds. Whether the conflict resolves sooner or later, buyers who discover synthetic diamonds during this window are unlikely to forget the lesson.

When you shop for that engagement ring this season, the most consequential question may no longer be how many carats or what cut. It may simply be: natural or synthetic?

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IRAN: Tensions Are Up and Oil Prices With Them

WHAT HAPPENED?

The US attacked and seized an Iranian cargo ship traversing the Strait of Hormuz. The seizure was on the basis that the ship had violated the American blockade of Hormuz. In response, Iran has vowed retaliation in response “soon.” Crude oil prices have surged by close to 5% in response.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The seizure marks a significant uptick in tensions between the US and Iran as Pakistan aims to negotiate a lasting ceasefire to the conflict. While President Donald Trump has confirmed that the US will send delegations to Islamabad for further peace talks, Iran has ruled out any additional discussions.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Iran is unlikely to engage in additional discussions as the week unfolds, leaving both tensions and oil prices elevated.

MOROCCO: Europe’s New Energy Savior

WHAT HAPPENED?

Morocco and Nigeria are taking steps to sign an intergovernmental agreement which will finalize development plans for the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP), a $27 million project which will transport 30 billion cubic meters of oil across 13 different countries.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Europe’s energy outlook has been severely worsened by the Gulf crisis; the NMGP creates an alternative supplier for the EU to turn to while also providing Northwest African countries a new revenue stream. The pipeline also hedges against the Algeria-Niger pipeline, heightening the Algeria-Morocco rivalry.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As Morocco and Nigeria finalize the agreement, several European buyers–most notably Spain–will line up to ensure their stake in this oil project.

SOUTH AFRICA: America’s Critical Minerals Champion

WHAT HAPPENED?

The US is advancing a $50 million investment in South Africa’s Phalaborwa Rare Earths Project. Developed by the Rainbow Rare Earths in collaboration with the US Development Finance Corporation, the project will extract rare earths from two huge dunes in 2028 over the course of 16 years. The dunes are 35 million tons of phosphogypsum and contain rare earths such as neodymium and praseodymium.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The advancement marks a significant American push to secure critical minerals access in Africa, a sector long dominated by China. It also points to a major economic collaboration point between the US and South Africa, which have experienced strained relations since Trump took office.

WHAT’S NEXT?

China still maintains a close economic partnership with South Africa and could likely respond in kind with its own deal, suggesting that the race for critical minerals in Southern Africa is just getting started.

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GCC: Private Bond Deals on the Rise

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Financial Times reported that the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait have collectively raised nearly $10 billion through private bond sales since early April, their first international borrowing since the Iran crisis disrupted regional oil and gas revenues.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Gulf economies have remained largely resilient in spite of the war’s economic reverberations. However, continued disruption to oil supply chains remains a concern for Gulf policymakers and investors, heightening the need for alternative fundraising efforts.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Saudi Arabia, the Gulf’s largest sovereign borrower, has yet to tap post-war debt markets. Further bond issuances are plausible as states continue assessing the full economic and infrastructure damage from the conflict.

SUDAN: Three Years of War With No End in Sight

WHAT HAPPENED?

Germany hosted an international ministerial conference in Berlin to mobilize urgent humanitarian aid for Sudan, three years into a devastating civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Neither warring faction was invited; the focus was entirely on civilian needs.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Around 28.9 million people—nearly 62% of Sudan’s population—face acute food shortages and poverty has almost doubled since the war began. Yet global funding remains critically short, with a €2.2 billion ($2.6 billion) gap in last year’s humanitarian plan amid widespread donor budget cuts.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With some Sudanese groups boycotting the conference and no peace talks on the horizon, fresh pledges will be crucial, but translating commitments into fully funded relief remains the central challenge.

BOTSWANA: The Gulf’s New Mineral Partner

WHAT HAPPENED?

Botswana President Duma Boko and Oman Sultan Haitham bin Tariq formalized a set of bilateral agreements covering renewable energy, mineral exploration, and infrastructure, the most significant being a 500 megawatt solar plant and a joint mining exploration deal targeting copper, gold, graphite, and iron ore.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Diamonds account for roughly a third of Botswana’s GDP, yet the industry is under growing pressure from lab-grown alternatives and weakening global demand. These deals represent a concrete step toward reducing that dependency and securing new growth engines in energy and diversified mining. It also represents another step forward in the Gulf’s investments in Africa’s mining sector.

WHAT’S NEXT?

President Boko has been stepping up outreach to international investors, including a recent visit to France to promote Botswana’s investment potential. No financial values were disclosed for the Oman deals, so the scale of actual investment flows will be the key thing to watch.

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KEY FACTS

• WHAT HAPPENED? Gold prices have surged since 2025, converting Sudan’s mines into a war-finance engine that has attracted both Russia and Ukraine

• WHY IT MATTERS? The higher the price climbs, the more economically rational it becomes for foreign powers to engage with Sudan

• WHAT’S NEXT? With prices still elevated and enforcement uneven, the cycle shows no signs of breaking

When gold breached $3,000 per ounce in early 2025, financial markets cheered. By year’s end, Reuters reported the metal had surged 64% and prices have climbed a further 17% into 2026. Now, the Iran war is spurring that upward trend forward, as investors worldwide flock to gold as a safe haven asset.

For investors, it is the commodity story of the decade. For Sudan, it’s something far grimmer: a strategic amplifier prolonging one of the world’s most destructive conflicts, now marking its third anniversary this month.

The forces driving gold’s ascent are well understood. Central banks added 1,045 tonnes to reserves in 2024 alone, with a World Gold Council survey finding that 95% of central bankers expected holdings to increase further. The result is a metal that has become less a commodity and more of a sanctions-proof reserve currency, and that quality is precisely what makes it so dangerous in conflict zones.

Sudan’s Golden War Economy

Sudan produces roughly 70 tonnes of gold annually, generating $1.57 billion in official export revenues in 2024. But official figures are almost certainly an undercount; estimates suggest smuggled gold runs at roughly four times the legal export volume. Sudan ranks fifth across the continent in terms of gold production and sixteenth worldwide.

It’s for this reason the ongoing war has turned Sudan’s mining sector into a de facto battlefield. Both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) extract revenue through direct mine control, militia taxation, and smuggling protection rackets. The RSF appears structurally more dependent on gold, particularly given its domination of Sudan’s western territories, where the country’s gold wealth is plentiful.

The economics are brutally straightforward. Higher gold prices raise the stakes of controlling a minefield or smuggling corridor, making territorial competition more significant than ever. Artisanal mining, the dominant mode in Sudan, is the primary interface between armed actors and the gold economy and it scales with price. When bullion rises, more miners arrive, militia “protection” becomes more lucrative, and the incentive to contest corridors intensifies. Sudan is not just a country with a gold problem; it’s a country where the battlefield and the goldfield increasingly overlap.

The Forgotten Russia-Ukraine Connection

Yet the link between Sudanese gold extends far beyond the realm of Northeast Africa. Russia transferred 40% of its National Welfare Fund holdings into gold in 2022, a pre-emptive hedge against Western sanctions that has since helped insulate Moscow from complete economic isolation. It now holds approximately 2,333 tonnes in reserves, up roughly 125% from 2013.

On the day Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo flew to Moscow. Within weeks, large quantities of Sudanese gold were reportedly transferred to Russia via the Moscow-backed paramilitary Wagner Group, which had embedded itself in RSF networks.

Investigative reporting has traced alleged shipments routed through Syria, with proceeds helping finance Russian operations in Ukraine. The EU sanctioned Meroe Gold and related Russian-linked entities, but enforcement has remained uneven; gold is compact, fungible, and easily re-labeled after refining.

Ukraine has responded in kind. Following an unscheduled September 2023 meeting between SAF General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and President Zelenskyy, where both discussed countering groups “financed by Russia”, Ukrainian forces were allegedly deployed in support of the SAF. Footage surfaced of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Wagner personnel near gold mining sites. The Guardian described it as part of an “emerging campaign” by Kyiv to impose costs on Russian networks beyond Eastern Europe, with Africa becoming a key battleground.

The Feedback Loop

The most dangerous insight here is the self-reinforcing cycle at work. Higher prices attract more miners, raise the value of militia protection, and improve the payoff from smuggling, all without any shift in political conditions. Sanctions have struggled to interrupt this system because gold’s physical properties make it uniquely hard to police.

For investors, this dynamic carries a specific warning: gold’s safe-haven status can itself destabilize producer states when armed actors monetize a price rally faster than governments can tax it. Sudan is the clearest current example, but the pattern holds across conflict-affected Sahelian producers.

The critical variable to watch is not price alone, but whether higher gold prices coincide with deeper smuggling volumes, increased mine-area violence, and sharper Russian-Ukrainian covert competition in Africa. All three are currently trending in the same direction. One ounce at a time, the bullion rally is being converted into something markets rarely price: the extended duration of wars that might otherwise have ended.

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TURKEY: Seizing the Maritime Moment

WHAT HAPPENED?

Turkey is pressing ahead with the £20 billion (~$1.27 billion) Istanbul Canal, an artificial waterway connecting the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara that would allow Ankara to charge shipping tolls. The move comes as Iran seeks to levy fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Per international law, artificial canals like the Suez Canal can legally charge tolls, in contrast to natural straits. Turkey’s canal would exploit this legal distinction just as shipping disruptions are already adding 10-15 days to Asia-Europe journeys.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Istanbul Canal is targeted for completion by 2027. Morocco, Spain, and others are eyeing similar toll-corridor opportunities around the Strait of Gibraltar, signaling a broader race to monetize strategic shipping routes.

NIGERIA: From Regional to Continental Oil Giant

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigerian billionaire and founder of the Dangote Oil Refinery, Aliko Dangote, is planning a pan-African IPO for the refinery, with shares available to Nigerian investors within months. The listing would span multiple African stock exchanges, a continental first, with Stanbic IBTC Capital, Vetiva Advisory Services, and FirstCap appointed as advisors.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The move would mark a historic milestone for African capital markets, potentially boosting stock exchanges across the continent. It opens Africa’s largest refinery—currently capable of processing 650,000 barrels a day and aiming for 1.4 million in the future—to broad public ownership for the first time.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Dangote plans to sell at least 5% initially, with shares offered incrementally based on investor appetite. Longer term, he aims to expand refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, with no firm cap placed on how much equity could eventually be publicly held.

CONGO: Making Energy Gains While the World Makes Energy Losses

WHAT HAPPENED?

TotalEnergies announced a hydrocarbon discovery on the Moho license offshore the Republic of Congo. The MHNM-6 exploration well encountered a roughly 160-meter hydrocarbon column in high-quality Albian reservoirs.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Combined with a prior discovery on the nearby Moho F structure, recoverable resources total an estimated 100 million barrels. Its proximity to existing infrastructure makes development cost-effective and fast-tracked.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The resources are planned to be developed as a tie-back to the existing Moho Floating Production Units, Alima and Likouf, leveraging current infrastructure to bring production online efficiently.

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KEY FACTS

• WHAT HAPPENED? The Iran conflict has sent fuel, food, and fertilizer prices surging across Africa

• WHY IT MATTERS? Africa’s heavily indebted, import-dependent economies are among the least equipped to absorb the shock

• WHAT’S NEXT? If hostilities resume, it could push already disgruntled African youth to the brink

A Continent That Can’t Afford It

An Accra Technical University student takes the bus to school every day. It’s become such a staple of his routine that he already knows the exact price by heart. It was thus to his shock when, last week, he found that the price of the bus ticket had suddenly risen.

Why? The Iran war, thousands of miles away, is quietly making not only bus fares but bread, cooking gas, tea, and a whole host of other products far more expensive across a continent of 1.4 billion people.

The Middle East is far from the only region watching the next developments in the Iran crisis. In Ghana, fuel prices spiked 15-19% early this month. Meanwhile, on the other side of the continent, nearly 8 million kilograms of tea are trapped in Kenya due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, prompting weekly revenue losses of close to $8 million.

While these reverberations are being felt worldwide, countries across Africa are among the least equipped to absorb them. The World Bank says external debt service has more than doubled in Africa over the last decade and reached 2% of GDP in 2024.

The IMF warns that a sustained 10% energy price rise adds roughly 40 basis points to global inflation. That speaks trouble for Sub-Saharan Africa, which the World Bank projects will see median inflation of 4.8% this year.

For low-income households spending the bulk of their income on food and energy, “moderate” inflation isn’t moderate at all. This is especially true for large food and fuel importers like Egypt and Ethiopia, which are far more exposed to ongoing energy shocks. Egypt has already been forced to increase imports of Libyan energy to compensate for disruptions to Kuwaiti supply chains.

The Generation Watching Closely

The people absorbing these pressures most acutely are also the most politically combustible. Africa is home to the world’s largest youth population; over 60% of the continent is under 25, and UN Africa Renewal projects that number to double to over 830 million by 2050.

Yet this youth explosion has not been matched with economic opportunity. The African Development Bank reports that a third of Africans aged 15 to 35 are unemployed. Even South Africa, the continent’s largest economy by GDP, recorded a youth unemployment rate of 60.2%, the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Global shocks have consistently amplified these difficulties. The Russia-Ukraine war, for instance, stressed African food imports significantly: prior to the conflict, 27% of Ukrainian wheat exports were delivered to North Africa, sparking food insecurity across the region.

Since then, youth across the continent have taken to the streets. In Morocco last September, mass protests erupted over the Kingdom’s $41 billion investment into stadium infrastructure for the 2030 FIFA World Cup, over necessary safety net services, like healthcare. In Kenya, 2024 produced over 1,800 recorded demonstrations, uniting students, health workers, and teachers alongside the TikTok generation. The domino fell elsewhere too: Togo, Tanzania, Nigeria, and beyond.

African youth are hyperaware of how their futures are being shaped by socioeconomic pressures, a fire that the Iran crisis is throwing more gasoline on.

How Bad Could It Get?

African governments are watching Pakistan’s role in mediation closely for signals on what comes next. If the ceasefire holds but tensions persist—keeping Iran’s grip on the Hormuz tight—oil prices will remain elevated and inflation will rise gradually, leaving states like South Africa increasingly vulnerable.

If fighting resumes and air strikes return, import-dependent Sahel countries will be hit hardest. A scenario in which Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping vessels resume alongside Hormuz disruptions could stifle close to 30% of global oil trade, a shock African economies have no buffer to absorb.

Whether it’s the student in Ghana trying to get to class or the Kenyan farmer watching his tea pile up, the people most exposed to this war aren’t in the Middle East. They are the same people who already showed they won’t stay quiet.

The price of oil is, in that sense, also the price of political patience.

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