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BEFORE YOU SCROLL

• “Skinimalism” has been an international viral trend, sold as “do less, spend less.”

• But the numbers tell us the opposite: American skincare sales are growing, and a “minimalist” skincare brand just sold for up to $1 billion.

• That said, the core idea of skinimalism is there; you just have to do it right.

👋

Since 2023, I’ve dropped more money than I care to admit on skincare.

Skin issues like acne and hyperpigmentation have been persistent ones for me since I was a teenager and into young adulthood, and with them have come far too many visits to the dermatologist and far too many swaps from one set of skincare products to another.

And I’m far from alone: Advanced Dermatology reports that Americans spend on average $897 per year on their appearance, $492 of which goes to skincare alone. For women, the average is even higher: $600.

For some, the answer to this financial skincare craze is obvious: simply do less.

That’s what Hailey Bieber’s Rhode was all about: selling just four essential products (cleanser, essence, serum, moisturizer).

And it was clearly an idea that resonated with people: net sales for the 12 months ending March 31, 2025 were $212 million, according to an announcement from e.l.f. Beauty, in which it said it would acquire Rhode for up to $1 billion.

It’s this minimalistic approach to skincare, “skinimalism,” that has financially pressed youth going all-in.

But while “less is more” may make sense for your face, does that also play out when it comes to your wallet?

WHAT EVEN IS SKINIMALISM?

“Skinimalism” is exactly what it sounds like: a simplified skincare routine that focuses on just a few core products instead of a long list.

The idea is both for health and financial reasons: dermatologists routinely say that your face doesn’t need to be splattered with one skincare product after the next, and (in theory) that means less money leaving your bank account when you walk out of Sephora.

The numbers back it up. A 2025 Northwestern University study looked at 100 skincare videos on TikTok, featuring mainly teenage creators. What they found was that each video on average recommended six products with a combined average cost of $168; some routines even went beyond $500. Of those 100 videos, the top 25 most viewed had an average of 11 ingredients that could irritate your skin.

But in practice, skinimalism falls short because people conflate four things:

• Fewer products used.

• Fewer products bought.

• Lower spending.

• Less makeup.

Most skinimalism advice assumes these are all the same thing. When you hit the checkout, they aren’t.

IS GEN Z ACTUALLY SPENDING LESS?

The U.S. BLS reports that American personal care spending per household rose from $786 in 2019 to $978 in 2024.

And when it comes to younger people, spending on personal care products and services for households headed by someone under 25 went up by roughly 38% from 2020 to 2024, according to numbers from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

On top of that, BeautyMatter reported that American female teen beauty spending hit a record high in spring 2025: $374 annually, up 10% year-over-year.

If skinimalism was working in practice, you’d expect the entire industry to be moving toward fewer products on shelves. But the numbers show the exact opposite: Circana reported that U.S. mass skincare units grew 6% in 2025, while prestige skincare units grew by double digits in the first half of 2026.

All of this, despite IML Research stating that 75% of consumers now purchase three or fewer skincare products.

FOLLOW THE RECEIPTS

What seems to be a paradox is actually very simple: fewer products doesn’t automatically mean lower prices.

And it all comes down to the exact products and brands you select from. A cleanser from e.l.f. can cost you $7, while a similar one from La Roche-Posay can be up to $20. And while different sizes and ingredients obviously play a role, for those financially pressed, it generally makes more sense to opt for the cheaper options. Especially since dermatologists agree you only need to apply a small amount of these products to your face, meaning they could last you a long time.

The takeaway: skinimalism only saves money if what you cut costs more than what you swap in. And that’s an angle the movement hasn’t emphasized enough.

THE OASIS GAME PLAN

This is not financial advice.

Just because the numbers cast doubt on it in practice doesn’t mean skinimalism is a myth.

Intentional spending and a more selective approach to skincare shopping are what will save your face and your wallet:

• Pay for Function, Not the Fancy Bottle. The AAD has said that expensive isn’t necessary. So while big name brands, especially those with celebrity backing, may seem to be superior, even brands you can find at your local pharmacy will still get the job done for your skin and help your credit card.

• Beware the Bundle. A “four-product essentials kit” is still a four-product purchase. If you’re able to buy the same products individually and for less, always go for that option.

• Patience is 🔑. Don’t expect your new minimalistic skincare routine to automatically do the trick. SKIN|CYCLES states that it typically takes one full cycle, lasting 4-6 weeks, before you see noticeable effects. So if your simpler routine takes a while, just don’t throw it out the window and default back to the pricier products, thinking they’ll accelerate the process.

• Be Minimalistic, Not Reductive. Don’t let a trend tell you what to cut. Everybody’s skin is different, so your routine should be tailored to your needs.

TL;DR

Skinimalism is a real marketing wave, but unproven as a spending cut. That said, it can work in practice when you take a more selective approach to your purchases.

SAY LESS

• Skinimalism: Cutting back on the number of skincare products and focus on the bare essentials.

• AAD: American Academy of Dermatology.

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BEFORE YOU SCROLL

• Youth-led protests have hit 20+ countries since 2024, and two governments fell in a matter of weeks.

• The triggers varied, but the grievance underneath was the same: a blocked path to a stable adult life.

• While some protests have limited consequences, others can be huge for the world and for you.

👋

Over the last week, Paris has been gripped by mass student protests. Teenagers have taken to the streets, police have been dispatched, and images of clashes and fires have spread online, all over the conditions of French schools.

The same dynamic is playing out in India, where this week saw some of the nation’s biggest protests since its predominantly youth-led “Cockroach” movement began in May. This time, Indian youth are opposing electoral commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, who reportedly dropped 130 million names from voter registration lists. The movement’s leader, Abhijeet Dipke, was arrested by police upon landing in New Delhi over the weekend.

The same story is playing out everywhere. Nepal, Indonesia, the Philippines, Morocco, Madagascar, Peru, and several other countries have seen their youth rise up over the last few years. Different countries, same grievances.

Even the imagery is consistent: the straw-hat pirate flag from the One Piece manga keeps appearing across these protests. It’s a global symbol pointing to a far bigger crisis than poor schools or electoral corruption.

WHAT EVEN IS A “GEN Z PROTEST”?

While the protests vary by country, they usually share a few characteristics:

• Predominantly youth-led, mainly comprising teenagers and those in their mid-to-late twenties.

• Social media organization, especially on platforms like Discord, Reddit, and TikTok.

• No single leader, although some, like India’s Cockroach movement, have notable faces.

What’s important to stress is that not every protest with young people qualifies as a “Gen Z protest.” Sri Lanka’s and Mexico’s protests, for instance, drew in older participants, too. So the term is partly a media construct.

Most of all, this isn’t a single organization; it’s a wave. Every country’s eruption has too many striking differences to be casually grouped together as one movement.

But the similarities do show a unifying thread, one that’s starting to spread across the world.

WHY NOW?

There are three broad threads that tie these protests together:

• Elite Perks vs. Everyday Life. Economic inequality runs hard in developed economies, and even harder in developing ones. And that inequality is hard to tolerate long-term. In Timor-Leste, protests were driven by perks for Members of Parliament, including a $4.2 million plan to buy 65 Toyota Prado SUVs for all MPs and grant lifetime pensions. The plan was eventually scrapped because of this.

• Services Failing, Corruption Accused. Gen Z across these countries are always looking to the future, and when that future looks bleak, the answer is to change the present. The protests in Morocco in late 2025 were largely a response to declining health and education infrastructure as Rabat continued to invest heavily in sports infrastructure ahead of the 2030 FIFA World Cup. That discrepancy pushed young Moroccans into the streets, prompting government agreements to boost health and education budgets.

• The Jobs Picture. Global youth unemployment hit 12.4% in 2025, according to the ILO; that represents 67 million people. Combined with other factors, the international labor market poses steep hurdles for Gen Z trying to secure stable adult positions. Throw in other economic pressures like high inflation, and anger starts to rise, eventually exploding onto the streets.

Of course, these are just umbrella factors. The data shows a correlation, not proof that these ingredients predict protests.

But they do show common grievances that young people worldwide can agree on. It’s why the One Piece flag has become a recurring symbol: it represents youth rejection of these deepening problems and what they perceive as their governments’ failure to respond.

SO… WHY DOES ANY OF THIS EVEN MATTER?

Protests, including those led by youth, are nothing new in human history. But at a time of rising inflation, geopolitical risk, climate change, and a host of other global issues, these Gen Z protests have the potential to add fuel to the fire.

As Madagascar and Nepal showed, protest waves can upend governments and shift the entire political status quo. This is even more concerning in countries integral to the global economy. France’s economic challenges have been a major reason as for why the euro has recently slid against the U.S. dollar, and they’re the same structural challenges French youth are rising up against.

As those issues deepen worldwide, so too will the wave, and with it, even more destabilization of governments and economies.

THE OASIS GAME PLAN

So as we move into 2027, and the global wave shows no signs of slowing, what should you do?

Well, no game plan or recommendations this time. The wave is too unpredictable to give general advice, and admittedly, many of the countries it has popped up in lack the same weight in the global financial system as larger, more developed economies.

Instead, as with any planning: hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. Start building an emergency fund that can last 3-6 months. That way, when chaos pops up and ripples to your wallet, you’ll at least have something to turn to, just in case.

TL;DR

A global wave of youth protests shares one grievance: a blocked path to a stable adult life. And depending on where that wave goes next, it can have a big domino effect for the world economy and your wallet.

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BEFORE YOU SCROLL

• The Pacific Ocean hit +3.1°C above normal in late September, and NOAA now puts the odds of a very strong El Niño at over 90%.

• Floods and droughts are hitting the crops behind your coffee, chocolate, and sugar, and developing countries will feel the pain most.

• Expect pricier groceries and together budgets, and possibly more interest rate hikes, well into 2027.

Godzilla is finally becoming a reality, just not in the way your 10-year old self would have thought.

Temperatures in the Pacific Ocean just hit +3.1°C above normal in late September, a record for this point in the weather cycle. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) puts the odds of a very strong weather event at over 90%, and the chance that it’s the strongest since 1950 at 75%.

That event is known as El Niño, and the world is bracing for a “super” (or “Godzilla”) version of it.

Weather is usually an easy conversation starter to break the ice. This time, though, it’s more likely to break your bank account, since your grocery bill and your savings are in the crosshairs.

WHAT EVEN IS EL NIÑO?

In a nutshell: El Niño happens when temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise, kickstarting a wave of weather patterns worldwide.

Normally, strong winds push warm surfaces toward Indonesia and the rest of Asia, and the rain follows. Meanwhile, colder water rushes toward South America.

El Niño periodically flips that script. The winds weaken, warm water drifts toward the Americas, and Pacific temperatures climb to abnormal heights.

That giant patch of warm water changes the atmosphere above it. Depending on where you are, that can mean:

• 🌧️ More rain to some places, including parts of the southern U.S.

• ☀️ Drought to places such as Australia and Indonesia.

• 🌡️ Warmer temperatures in many regions.

• 🌾 Crop disruptions, which can push food prices higher.

That last ripple effect is important, no matter where you live. El Niño brings floods where nobody needs them and droughts where the crops are.

Take cocoa. West Africa grows the world’s largest supply, and El Niño is set to bring drier, hotter weather to Cote d’ivoire and Ghana, slashing harvests and sending chocolate prices up with them.

And thanks to climate change, this El Niño is set to be the worst we’ve seen.

August 2026 tied for the hottest month on record, at 1.65°C above the pre-industrial baseline, according to Copernicus and NASA. Copernicus also recorded a daily global sea surface temperature of 21.1°C (70°F) on August 22, the highest ever measured.

To wrap it all up, Berkeley Earth gives 2026 a 69% chance of being the warmest year on record.

YOUR GROCERY BILL

Worst of all, it’s arriving just as people are already struggling to get by when going to their local grocery stores.

According to Trading Economics:

• FOA Food Price Index is up three straight months to 136.

• Wheat is up 6.3%, largely thanks to the Russia-Ukraine war and drier weather in parts of North America.

• Sugar prices are up 6.1% since April 2025.

JPMorgan predicts global food inflation will climb to 5% in 2027, up from 3% today. Drier weather in West Africa, wet weather in Brazil, and drought in India and Thailand are all feeding that uptick.

JPMorgan describes it as a worldwide “crisis.” And unlike oil, which countries stockpile, there’s no fallback plan for fertilizer.

MR. WORLDWIDE

The shockwave will be felt hardest in developing countries.

Food makes up 13.5% of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI), which tracks the average change in what people pay for goods over time, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In India, that figure is a whopping 45%, according to the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. In Brazil, it’s 26%, according to TradingView.

The effects are already showing. Peru cut its anchovy quota by 36%, according to Seafood News, citing “current stock conditions.”

Altogether, the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that El Niño will cost the global economy $986 billion, roughly 0.8% of the world GDP.

THE OASIS GAME PLAN

This is not financial advice.

• “I Am Inevitable.” Charles-Henry Monchau of Investing.com says El Niño can account for roughly 20% of movements in commodity price inflation, so commodity futures are going to be jolted, no matter how you slice it or dice it.

• Commodity Watch. Soft commodities are the ones to watch when it comes to futures: coffee, cocoa, palm oil, rice, sugar, corn, and soybeans.

• Winners and Losers. Investing.com notes that farming, agricultural and fertilizer companies are set to ride big equity swings, while livestock and protein producers will likely take a hit.

Most important: don’t panic. A supply squeeze and price hikes are likely, but freaking out won’t help your wallet.

Instead, reorient your budget to prepare for when common purchases get pricier. Homeowners, especially in the southern U.S., should plan for tighter property management. And since several central banks have recently hiked interest rates, budget for even more, especially if you live in an exposed emerging market.

TL;DR

The world is set for a very strong, possibly record-breaking El Niño, a weather event squeezing the crops behind coffee, cocoa and sugar, pushing food prices up. Expect pricier groceries and possibly higher interest rates into 2027.

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BEFORE YOU SCROLL

• Global youth unemployment is at an all-time high, and people are blaming AI.

• AI may not be the real culprit, and thinking that it is is steering Gen Z toward the wrong fixes and career moves.

• The jobpocalypse isn’t looking to go away anytime soon, but there are things that can be done.

Here’s the current job-hunting experience for the average fresh graduate in a nutshell:

• Apply for over 200 jobs.

• Be ghosted by most, rejected by a few, and barely reach a first interview for a handful.

• Then get an email saying “you’re not the right fit,” with no further explanation.

Maybe your parents tell you to just apply on LinkedIn or Indeed. There are thousands of openings, so there are still tons of opportunities, right?

The catch: one in seven of those listings is a “ghost job,” according to Forbes. Basically, fake openings for roles the company doesn’t actually want to fill. It’s so bad that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is investigating LinkedIn over the issue.

Even worse, the few genuine listings demand “2 years of experience” while proudly labeling themselves “entry-level.”

I remember a TikTok video describing Gen Z job hunting in 2026 as an “embarrassment ritual” and it’s leaving a lot of young people worldwide frustrated.

The number one reason people are pointing to behind this “jobpocalypse” seems simple: AI.

As a first guess, it makes sense. Adobe, Meta, Oracle, and tons of other companies have laid off thousands of people internationally, and AI keeps being cited as the reason.

But a closer look at the numbers tells a messier story. AI may not be the leading cause of Gen Z’s jobpocalypse, and it’s definitely not because of iced coffees, either.

THE SCOREBOARD

Before we dive in, here’s the data behind the jobpocalypse:

• Global youth unemployment hit 12.4% in 2025, according to the International Labour Organization (ILO). That’s 67 million young people.

• Entry-level job postings worldwide fell by 29%, according to the World Economic Forum.

• 42% of recent U.S. graduates are underemployed, while 5.6% are unemployed, according to the New York Federal Reserve.

And all of this is probably a big reason as to why the U.S. economy only added 29,000 jobs in September, far below the 89,000 economists predicted.

THE USUAL SUSPECT

Forbes reported that the junior hiring crash began in 2022, the same year ChatGPT launched.

Since then, Gemini, Claude, Perplexity, and countless other LLMs have arrived on the scene, each more capable of handling the tasks entry-level roles revolve around.

Whether it’s building an app with Claude Code or producing a market report with Gemini Deep Research, it feels like the career paths once seen as the prize, like programmer or consultant, are being snatched away with every new tool.

A Stanford study all but seems to prove it: workers aged 22-25 in the most AI-exposed jobs are about 19% below their expected employment path, while older colleagues in the same jobs are fine.

So, case solved. Right?

THE PLOT TWIST

While Stanford shows AI’s potential, a Yale Budget Lab study shows what’s actually happening: no discernible economy-wide AI disruption 33 months after ChatGPT’s release.

Forbes may have dated the jobpocalypse to 2022, but it didn’t pin it on ChatGPT. At the time, many executives didn’t know enough about AI to confidently roll back hiring en masse.

And a look at 2025’s mass layoffs suggests government spending cuts, not just AI, were the leading cause, according to Visual Capitalist.

Other countries tell the same story:

• 🇿🇦 South Africa: It has one of the highest youth unemployment rates in all of Africa, and the problem long predates ChatGPT.

• 🇪🇸 Spain: It has one of the EU’s highest rates, with no single explanation. Its economy leans on tourism, hospitality, and construction, which tend to produce unstable, short-term jobs.

• 🇨🇳 China: Youth unemployment has climbed rapidly since 2024, with everything from economic slowdown to hiring reluctance blamed.

So if AI were the main cause, why is the pain worse where it has barely arrived?

THE REAL CULPRIT

More likely, the jobpocalypse comes down to one word: uncertainty.

The pandemic, tariffs, and wars are colliding to create one of the most unpredictable times to be alive. And if there’s anything businesses hate, it’s uncertainty.

ChatGPT wasn’t the only thing shaking the world in 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy costs soaring, pushing up shipping costs, inflation, and interest rates, too.

The war in Iran has doubled down on the mayhem, and businesses are hedging against even more turbulence.

The easy way out: not hire at all. Companies are shedding many people, holding on to the rest, and barring everyone else from boarding.

AI, and more recently bringing iced coffee to your interview, is more than likely a convenient excuse masking the real reasons the job market is in shambles.

THE OASIS GAME PLAN

This is not financial advice.

With the dust settled, how does Gen Z navigate a market that seems stacked against them?

• Ditch the job boards. Platforms like Indeed just don’t work like they used to. Go straight to the source and message hiring managers on LinkedIn to introduce yourself.

• Stand out from the crowd. An internship alone won’t cut it. Pick up a side hustle that showcases your skills, like starting a newsletter.

• Learn to work with the tools. AI is a growing reality of work, whether you like it or not. The WEF found that 68% of entry-level workers say AI boosts their productivity, so keep learning to use it to your advantage.

TL;DR

Young people are struggling to get hired worldwide, and AI is the easy scapegoat. But a deeper look finds that the likelier culprit is global uncertainty, which has companies simply not hiring.

SAY LESS

• NEET: Not in employment, education, or training.

• Low-hire, low-fire: Few people get hired, few get fired.

• Underemployment: Working a job that doesn’t require your degree.

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KEY QUESTIONS

• WHAT HAPPENED? U.S. 30-year mortgage rates just topped 7% for the first time since 2025, as the Fed hiked rates and 10-year Treasury yields blew past 5%.

• WHY IT MATTERS? This isn’t just a U.S. story, as countries around the world struggle with surging housing prices.

• WHAT’S NEXT? More Fed hikes look likely, Japan shows no sign of slowing its selloff, and new home construction is too squeezed to offer relief anytime soon.

For decades, buying a home in the suburbs has been the anchor of the American Dream. For first-time buyers today, it’s starting to look more like a fantasy.

Last week, the average U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate topped 7%, after the Federal Reserve hiked rates for the first time since 2023 and the 10-year Treasury yield pushed past 5%. Meanwhile, the median U.S. single-family home price sits at $398,400, according to the National Association of Realtors, marking 20 straight months of year-over-year price growth last February, per Bankrate.

It’s not just an American problem, either:

• In the UK, two-year fixed mortgage rates climbed to just under 6% in September, adding roughly £131 a month to a £250,000 loan, according to Moneyfacts data.

• In Germany, the 10-year fixed rate jumped from 3.84% to 4.43% in six months, as reported by Hypofriend.

• In Canada, owners who were locked in at 1.49% to 2.29% in 2020-21 are now renewing at 4.29% to 4.99%, according to Lendsimpl.

• Globally, 3.4 billion people now live in inadequate or insecure housing, and the worldwide price-to-income ratio has jumped from 9.3 to 11.2 since 2010, according to UN-Habitat’s 2026 World Cities Report.

What’s Actually Driving This

War and oil. Since the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated in February, energy prices have climbed, and inflation with them. The Congressional Budget Office expects inflation to run half a point higher through 2027 than it would have been without the war, and with President Trump rejecting Iran’s latest ceasefire offer and a second Fed hike likely by year’s end, that pressure isn’t easing.

A global bond selloff. Mortgage rates track bond yields, and yields are surging everywhere: Japan’s 10-year hit a 30-year high of 3.05%, while France’s has climbed to match Italy’s, around 4.1% to 4.15%. As government borrowing costs rise, so does the cost of your mortgage.

Your mortgage is set in Tokyo. Japan’s ongoing economic troubles are quietly steering U.S. rates. After the yen crashed through ¥160 in April, Japan’s Ministry of Finance spent ¥6.28 trillion in a single day to defend it. A second intervention in July, with U.S. help, still didn’t stop the yen’s slide. To raise cash, Japan, the world’s largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries have been dumping them, adding to the oversupply pushing yields higher. Commentator Kyla Scanlon estimates a half-point yield increase from Japan’s selloff alone could add $100 a month to a 30-year, $400,000 loan.

Why New Homes Won’t Save Us

The obvious fix–build more housing–isn’t coming fast. The Financial Times points to a labor shortage as builders shift crews toward data-center construction instead of houses, which also competes with homebuilders for materials, raising costs.

Higher rates and oil prices are squeezing builders from the cost side while demand cools, and it’s showing: shares of Lennar Corporation, the country’s second-largest homebuilder, have plunged this year.

How First-Time Buyers Can Still Navigate It

While the housing market isn’t set to get any better, it doesn’t mean that buying a house is a fantasy. For first time buyers, whether you’re looking to live or view it as an investment, here are some general tips to survive:

• Budget beyond the price tag. Taxes, closing costs, agent commissions, and title fees add up fast, so make sure to build a budget that covers them, plus an emergency cushion.

• Consider a co-signer. A partner or parent can strengthen a thin credit file and improve your approval odds.

• Negotiate closing costs. Shop for a cheaper title company or push back on agent commissions. It’s often more negotiable than buyers realize.

TL;DR: U.S. mortgage rates just topped 7% as the Fed hikes and global bond yields surge, fueled partly by war-driven inflation and partly by Japan, which is dumping the U.S. Treasuries to defend a collapsing yen. The selloff is quietly pushing up borrowing costs worldwide, and with new construction too squeezed to add relief, first-time buyers should plan around today’s rates rather than wait for them to drop.

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KEY QUESTIONS

• WHAT HAPPENED? Ethiopian rebel groups formed an alliance to overthrow the government and fighting has already broken out in the north.

• WHY IT MATTERS? Ethiopia sits next to the Red Sea and produces the world’s most coveted Arabica coffee, so a new war can boost prices of both commodities.

• WHAT’S NEXT? Watch whether the coalition holds together, whether Eritrea moves from alleged backer to open combatant, and whether Oromia’s coffee belt stays out of the crossfire.

While you were sipping your morning coffee or filling up your gas tank, Ethiopia reached a potentially deadly turning point.

On September 20, seven armed opposition groups announced a united front: the Ethiopian People’s Forces Alliance. Chief among them is the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), once the dominant force in Ethiopian politics Despite deep political and ethnic divisions, they’re united by one goal: ousting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Three days later, the alliance made its move. Regional airports were seized in a major offensive that caught the federal government off guard. Fighting has since disrupted telecom networks across Tigray and spread into the neighboring Amhara and Afar regions, raising an uncomfortable question: is Ethiopia sliding back into the war that killed roughly 600,000 people between 2020 and 2022, the deadliest conflict of the 21st century?

Whatever happens next won’t stay inside Ethiopia’s borders. That coffee and gas are about to feel it too.

From Dominance to Disarray

The ongoing violence is just the latest episode in a wider political saga that has gripped Ethiopia since the ethno-federal political order emerged in 1991 when the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition ruled. To catch you up to speed:

• For nearly three decades, the TPLF were the dominant force within the EPRDF coalition.

• In 2018, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reorganized the EPRDF into the Prosperity Party, which the TPLF did not join.

• In 2020, with elections postponed over COVID-19, the TPLF called Abiy’s government illegitimate and held its own regional vote.

• Tensions turned into war. Ethiopia’s federal forces struck an unlikely alliance with longtime rival Eritrea and Amhara militias like Fano to defeat the TPLF.

The war came to a close with the signing of the Pretoria Agreement in 2022. But the deal left territorial disputes unresolved and forces only partially disarmed, a fragile peace that’s now unraveling.

A War Without Borders

Since the end of the war, Ethiopia-Eritrea relations have nosedived. As the world’s most populous landlocked country, Ethiopia wants access to the Red Sea back, specifically the Eritrean port of Assab, roughly 70km from the two countries’ shared border. That’s driving tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara, with Ethiopia accusing Eritrea of backing Ethiopian rebels, a claim Eritrea denies.

The web keeps widening. A February Reuters investigation found an alleged training camp for Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces inside Ethiopia’s Benishangul-Gumuz region. In May, Sudan’s army accused Ethiopia of backing drone strikes launched from its territory, a claim Addis denies. If war reignites, the fear is it won’t stop at Ethiopia’s borders. It could pull in both its direct neighbors and even other countries into the orbit, like Egypt and the Gulf states

Why Your Gas Tank and Coffee Mug Should Care

Roughly 10% of global trade, including 5% of oil, moves through the Red Sea, which the Horn of Africa sits next to.

Ethiopia’s ongoing turmoil is kickstarting just as the Iran-backed Houthi’s seized the port city of Mocha in Yemen, which sits next to the Red Sea, adding to an already severe maritime crisis. Amid the Houthi advances, attacks on tankers and the continued restriction of traffic in the Hormuz, Brent crude climbed above the $108 a barrel.

Coffee is next in line. Ethiopia is the world’s fifth-largest producer and third-largest exporter of Arabica, the bean behind roughly 60% of global production, according to the International Growth Centre. It exported $2.89 billion worth of coffee in 2024/25, up 69.4% in value according to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The Oromia region of Ethiopia alone produces nearly 60% of that output, and it’s also home to the Oromo Liberation Army, an alliance member, putting the region’s coffee fields uncomfortably close to the fighting.

Prices are already stretched: coffee hit a historic high of 325 cents per pound in 2025, according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO). Take a quick look at Starbucks, too: the Tall Mocha Frappuccino has jumped over 30% from 2014 to 2024. A new war in one of coffee’s most important producers could push prices higher still.

The Regional Powder Keg

The Horn of Africa is turning into a tinderbox, and Ethiopia sits at its center. If war returns, the risk of it dragging in the wider region isn’t far-fetched.

And if it does, you might want to swap the car for an EV, and the coffee for matcha.

TL;DR: Ethiopian rebel factions have formed a coalition to topple the government, and fighting has already broken out in the north. With Ethiopia’s Eritrea standoff, Sudan spillover, and grip on Red Sea trade and global Arabica supply, a renewed war risks becoming everyone’s problem, from oil prices to your coffee order.

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KEY QUESTIONS

• WHAT HAPPENED? France’s economy narrowly avoided a recession last quarter as slow growth and high borrowing costs rock Paris.

• WHY IT MATTERS? France is the eurozone's second-largest economy, and its debt market sets a pricing benchmark for the entire continent.

• WHAT’S NEXT? A make-or-break 2027 budget fight looms, set against the backdrop of a presidential election where no party wants to own painful cuts.

For much of the 2010s, Greece was the red flag keeping economists up at night.

Rocked by the 2008 recession, Athens’ GDP plunged by roughly 25% during the peak of the crisis, debt-to-GDP hit a high of 180%, and unemployment soared to nearly 28% in 2013. Greece even became the first (and only) developed market to be downgraded to emerging market status.

Now, people are wondering if France will be the second.

France is being eyed as the “weak link” in European markets, according to Rohan Khanna, head of European rates strategy at Barclays, in an interview with the Financial Times. Khanna added that Paris is now a “perfect storm” given a blend of risks spanning growth, politics, and public finances.

It’s leaving many wondering: is France the next Greece?

The Red Flags in Paris

Going into 2026, the government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu expected a year of stability and even modest growth. Instead:

• Deficit is ballooning, currently at 5.4% of GDP despite the target of 5%.

• Debt has reached its highest point since 1978, currently sitting at 119.3% of GDP.

• GDP growth fell below the government’s 0.7% forecast.

• The economy shrank by nearly 0.2% in the first quarter of 2026.

A report from Yahoo Finance noted that the country narrowly avoided a recession last quarter, a close call analysts are treating as a warning sign. Scope Ratings, Europe’s largest credit rating agency, just dropped France’s credit rating—the government equivalent of a credit score—from AA- to A+; similarly, Morningstar DBRS shifted its outlook on France’s economy from “stable” to “negative.” Both cited growing debt and political division as key reasons.

France is now even being compared to some of Europe’s worst-performing markets. For years, Italy was seen as one of the riskiest borrowers in Europe, given that its bond yields were among the highest on the continent. That’s beginning to change, as Italy’s bond yields have cooled while France’s have risen. Even Japan, once one of the biggest holders of French debt, is dumping it at record speed.

How France Got Here

Cracks in the French economy first appeared in 2025, when the government under then-Prime Minister François Bayrou faced weak parliamentary support and deep political divisions, a combination that began to heighten investor concern.

The turning point came earlier this year, when Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu forced the delayed 2026 budget into law despite political pushback. Now, Lecornu has abandoned his original 5% deficit assumption, stating that it’s “no longer an option.”

The rising tide of uncertainty among French policymakers is spreading to investors worldwide, who no longer view France as the stable bet it once was.

Why the Real Economy Is Feeling It

The back-and-forth in parliament is rippling out into the wider economy. Unemployment is projected to be ticking up toward 8.6% by the end of this year, while business failures are up 5.1% year-over-year, hitting services and hospitality the hardest.

The culmination of it all is businesses closing in record numbers and waves of mass layoffs. All of this is likely to fuel the growing fire of political anger across the country.

France is one of several nations that have seen growing unrest and outrage over rising fuel prices. Fishermen blockaded major fuel facilities and ports in southern France, culminating in clashes with local police. More episodes of outrage are likely to follow if the country’s economic downward spiral continues.

Why the Rest of Europe Is Watching Closely

As the eurozone’s second-largest economy, France’s economic performance is treated as a benchmark for the rest of the EU. Many of the factors rocking Paris right now can be seen elsewhere across Spain, Portugal, and beyond.

So global investors are watching to see if France, “too big to fail,” will be a preview of what’s next for the rest of the continent.

So, Is It Really the Next Greece?

While Paris’ troubles are deepening, France is unlikely to fall into the same crisis Greece did, particularly given that Athens’s collapse was triggered by the wider global economic crash of the late 2000s.

The real danger is a slow, gradual decline, one that plants the seeds of political frustration and unrest over time.

TL;DR: France’s deficit and debt have blown past targets, credit ratings are getting cut, and bond yields just hit their highest point since 2008. It’s not Greece 2.0, but red flags could mean the slow bleed shows no signs of stopping.

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KEY QUESTIONS

• WHAT HAPPENED? Japan just hiked interest rates to a 31-year high and the yen dropped anyway, pushing Japan’s economy into one of its most volatile periods yet.

• WHY IT MATTERS? Japan is one of the world’s biggest holders of foreign debt. With it unwinding those debt holdings, it’s quietly boosting global borrowing costs, commodity prices, and even the interest rate on your next car loan.

• WHAT’S NEXT? More rate hikes look likely on both sides of the Pacific, and Japan’s retreat from foreign bonds shows no signs of slowing.

On Friday, the Bank of Japan raised its interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%, a 31-year high. Right after, the yen dropped 1.3% against the dollar, falling to ¥158.

That’s the latest chapter in a rough year. Back on April 30, 2026, the yen crashed through ¥160, forcing Japan’s Ministry of Finance to spend ¥6.28 trillion in a single day just to prop it up, one of the largest one-day currency interventions ever recorded.

Then in late July, Japan stepped in again, this time with U.S. help, after the yen hit a 40-year low. However, the intervention wasn’t enough to stave off the yen’s downward drop.

Japan’s economy, in short, is facing one of its biggest challenges yet. And this isn’t a matter confined to trading desks. It reaches into mortgage rates, retirement portfolios, and the price of everyday goods.

Why is the yen so important?

The answer comes down to a cheat code investors, from Wall Street pros to everyday retail traders, have leaned on for decades: the carry trade.

Here’s the playbook: with Japan’s interest rates historically near zero, traders borrow cheap yen, convert it into U.S. dollars, and use that cash to buy up booming American assets, most notably in tech stocks. In effect, it’s a cheap loan to cover a very expensive bet, so long as the yen remains stable.

But that playbook is breaking. An ongoing Iran-driven energy crisis is keeping global inflation elevated heading into 2027, pushing both the U.S. and Japan into historic rate hikes. That’s putting the yen in a bind: rates are still relatively low compared to other major currencies, but the volatility around those rates is spooking traders, who are increasingly rotating into currencies like the Canadian dollar and Chinese yuan instead. With more hikes likely on the way, the yen’s slide out of favor looks far from over.

What’s happening with Japan’s bond market?

Compounding the pressure: Japan is dumping government bonds, the instruments by which governments borrow from investors, at home and abroad, in exchange for repayment with interest.

Bond yields are climbing worldwide right now, making it more expensive for governments everywhere to borrow. But Japan is the red flag keeping economists up at night. Tokyo has long been one of the world’s biggest buyers of foreign government debt, including U.S. Treasuries. To fund its yen-defense, Japan has been selling off those very holdings at record pace, leaving other governments scrambling to find new buyers to fill the gap.

France is a case study in what that fallout looks like. Yahoo Finance reported the country narrowly dodged a recession last quarter, with GDP shrinking 0.2% in Q1, badly missing the 0.7% growth French policymakers had forecast. One major driver: borrowing costs spiking, in part because Japan, historically one of France’s biggest debt buyers, has been offloading its French bond holdings in record numbers.

What does this mean for you?

Japan’s interventions may have bought time, but they haven’t resolved the underlying instability. And that instability won’t remain confined to Tokyo.

As Japan reduces its holdings of American debt, demand for U.S. Treasuries weaken, pushing their borrowing costs higher. That, in turn, ripples outward into the borrowing costs on mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans.

The effect extends to everyday goods, as well. Most global commodities, like oil, are priced in U.S. dollars rather than yen. Yet when the yen weakens, the cost of oil in Japan rises even if the dollar price hasn’t moved at all. It’s a cost that’s ultimately passed downstream, surfacing in fuel prices and consumer goods well beyond Japan’s own borders.

What’s next?

Inflation looks likely to stay elevated heading into the new year, and much like the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan has signaled more rate hikes aren’t off the table.

Japan’s economic strain shows no signs of easing up soon. And wherever it goes next, the consequences, wherever they land next, are likely to follow close behind.

TL;DR: Japan raised rates to a 31-year high, and the yen fell anyway. To defend its currency, Japan has been offloading foreign bonds at a record pace, quietly pushing up borrowing costs worldwide. It’s a trend likely to continue into 2027.

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Welcome back to the “Wall Street Foreign Desk.”

On the agenda today:

• U.S. All bets are being placed over the Federal Reserve raising those rates.

• RUSSIA. The country’s bond market continues to go haywire, unsettling investors and policymakers worldwide.

• AI. A recent Bank of America announcement tells us what’s the next direction for AI spending.

The Fed Is Walking Into An Energy Inflation Trap

After weeks of speculation, the Fed’s September decision is rapidly arriving, and it’s happening amid a chaotic backdrop: crude oil has been elevated past $100 as the Gulf tensions continue to escalate, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5%, its highest level since 2007. With Gulf starters having withdrawn from planned negotiations with Iran and the White House stating that the conflict would end post-midterm elections, more are convinced that the crisis is likely to extend into next year, and for the doomer type, become a “forever war.”

The result is pushing more to view interest rate hikes as inevitable, a sentiment echoed previously by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who finds himself in a catch-22 scenario. If energy prices remain high, cutting rates becomes harder to justify; if the Fed responds aggressively to the rising tide of inflation, it risks weakening demand. Either way, policy credibility is set to diminish just ahead of the midterms.

So in short:

• Treasury yields have risen alongside energy prices.

• Markets have been pricing a substantial probability of a rate increase.

• The Fed’s forward guidance may matter more than the immediate rate decision.

• The relationship between oil, bonds and equities has changed materially during the conflict.

100% Sanction on top Russian energy buyers advances in House

The U.S. House of Representatives cleared a crucial hurdle to advance bipartisan legislation written in honor of former Senator Lindsey Graham. As part of it, a new round of tariffs of up to 100% will be levied against the top global buyers of Russian crude oil and natural gas. The bill specifically targets countries such as China, India, and Turkey, all net oil importers who have increased their reliance on Russia for their energy needs.

The threat isn’t one to be taken lightly in Beijing and will likely accelerate New Delhi’s efforts to walk a tightrope in balancing relations between DC and Moscow; Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently pleaded to President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine in the leadup to this most recent announcement. Occurring on the heels of the recent BRICS summit in New Delhi, the bill may have the effect of bringing member nations closer in financial transactions, just as they attempt to diversify trade away from the U.S. dollar.

So in short:

• The bill could impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries buying Russian oil and gas. India and China could face significant pressure to reduce purchases of Russian energy.

• Sanctions targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” could disrupt established oil-shipping routes. Russian barrels may need to find alternative buyers, while India and China seek replacement supplies.

• The result could be tighter global oil markets, higher freight costs, and additional inflation pressure.

Wall Street’s AI Boom Is Contracting

The AI investment Boom is producing a secondary effect: fewer but substantially larger transactions. In a recent report, Bank of America warned that its third quarter investment banking fees would drop by over 10% year-over-year, landing between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion; the announcement caused shares to slide by nearly 5%. Meanwhile, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have captured a larger share of global fees.

The announcement comes amid a rising tide of executives and researchers across Silicon Valley calling for a slowdown in AI development and further regulations due to intense safety concerns. If such warnings become actual practice, the AI boom may be set for even further tightening. However, with the administration describing such warnings as a “trojan horse” and rejecting calls for further regulation, it’s unlikely we’ll see a complete drop in investment soon.

So in short:

• Private-equity deal volume fell 37% year-over-year in Q2.

• AI-related financing is increasingly large-ticket.

• The largest investment banks are capturing a greater share of fees.

Honorable mentions:

• German Industrial Fall. The recent state election in Germany is escalating fallout over the country’s loss of global manufacturing market share, especially in regards to competition from China.

• Crypto Crackdown. Global authorities are intensifying sanctions enforcement against digital assets like crypto, with Federal prosecutors identifying over $1.5 billion in foreign capital flows through cross-border crypto transactions.

• Divided Consumer Demand. New research from the New York Federal Reserve shows that real consumer spending growth is overwhelmingly driven by households earning over $125,000 annually, in contrast to middle and lower income demographics, who face mounting credit card stress.

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On September 14, history was made in Africa as the continent’s largest oil refinery—the Dangote Refinery in Nigeria—went public for the first time. With a fundraising goal of ₦2.15 trillion ($1.6 billion), the initial public offering (IPO) puts the company at a valuation of ₦65.22 trillion ($47.8 billion).

Taken all together, it marks the biggest IPO in African history, so much so that some Nigerian trading platforms crashed amid the flood of users looking to buy in.

The IPO is making major headlines far beyond West Africa, and Aliko Dangote, the businessman behind the refinery, has already revealed he has his eyes set on listing the company on the U.S. stock exchange.

Here is a guide decoding both the math and the significance behind this record-breaking IPO.

What is the Dangote Refinery?

Announced in 2013 with construction beginning in 2016, the Dangote Refinery was officially inaugurated in 2023 in Lekki, near Lagos.

At a cost of roughly $20 billion, the refinery currently operates at a capacity of 700,000 barrels per day as of mid-2026, making it the largest in Africa and supplying effectively all of Nigeria’s domestically produced petrol.

The facility has flipped the region’s historical energy dynamic. Nigeria previously exported crude oil while importing refined fuel, a costly paradox that the refinery was built to break.

The Numbers Behind the IPO

The IPO offers 4.1 billion new shares at ₦525 ($0.40) each on the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX). The subscription period opened on September 14 and is scheduled to close on October 13, with trading projected to begin in November.

The public sale has been dubbed an “IPO for the people,” given that the minimum subscription is just 10 shares, allowing retail investors to participate for as little as ₦5,250 ($4.00). However, this public float represents only 3.3% of the company; Dangote’s entities retain roughly 78%, while 6.6% remains under the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC).

Why Now?

In its initial two years of operation, the Dangote Refinery posted losses accumulating to nearly $2 billion across 2024 and 2025. However, 2026 brought a major turnaround: the refinery posted $1.82 billion in profit in just the first half of the year.

The ensuing war in Iran choked off critical Gulf oil supplies to global markets, forcing nations across Africa and Europe to pivot to alternative suppliers, chief among them Nigeria. This uptick in demand coincided with a surge in energy prices, driving refinery margins as high as $33.7 per barrel in Q1 before cooling to roughly $18 per barrel in Q2.

Ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea is further sharpening demand, meaning the IPO comes at a high point for the business. However, a long-term ceasefire in Iran could eventually cool the refinery’s financial reach.

Why It Matters Globally

Nigeria’s shift from a crude exporter to a refined-fuel supplier has made it a key energy lifeline for Europe. The Dangote Refinery has become Europe’s largest external supplier of jet fuel, offsetting lost supply from the Gulf.

Given its massive capacity and geographic proximity to Europe, the refinery is likely to attract external investment from European entities looking to bolster production and secure exports, particularly ahead of the winter months.

Beyond Europe, the IPO is poised to attract deep-pocketed energy investors from the Gulf. In June, Dangote met with ADNOC Group CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber in Abu Dhabi to discuss collaboration on joint energy projects.

With Dangote currently in talks to construct a similar facility in Kenya to service East Africa, the refinery’s financial weight is set to translate into significant diplomatic leverage across the continent.

What’s Next?

The refinery’s long-term success will hinge on everything from the NNPC’s ability to reliably supply domestic crude to how the geopolitical landscape evolves.

The Dangote Refinery IPO is nothing short of historic. Whether the refinery itself remains a central fixture in African history will ultimate be decided on the trading floor.

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Welcome to “Wall Street Foreign Desk.”

On the agenda today:

• IRAN. The energy crisis continues to accelerate, with Tehran effectively checkmating the entire global economy.

• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have hit 5% for the first time since 2023, adding to an uneasy dilemma for the Federal Reserve.

• ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. In a shock move, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirmed that the company will not be going public on safety grounds.

Houthis Seize Control of Bab el-Mandeb Strait as Oil Surges Past $100

The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen seized control of the Yemeni port city of Mocha. Located just right next to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the capture means that Iran effectively controls two of the world’s most important oil passageways, given that the Red Sea is where 5-7% of global energy passes. Meanwhile, weekend shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to single digits, and Saudi Arabia has temporarily shut its East-West pipeline following a drone attack, removing an alternative route.

The ensuing chaos has pushed Brent crude upward by over 3%, topping $108. The Hormuz disruption alone threatens roughly 20% of global supply; the added upheaval along the Red Sea and the Saudi pipeline are drawing that figure closer to 30%, while war-risk insurance and freight costs are also elevating.

So in short:

• Saudi East-West pipeline temporarily offline.

• Hormuz traffic is dramatically below normal.

• Houthi control around Bab el-Mandeb is increasing.

• Diesel has already moved above $6/gallon in the U.S.

• Gulf diplomatic talks have been postponed.

The Three-Way Breakdown:

• Catalyst: Gulf shipping and infrastructure are being attacked.

• Ripple: Fewer safe routes, higher insurance and freight costs.

• Transmission: Energy inflation boosts everything from transport and food costs to central bank policy.

The 5% Treasury Threshold Has Returned

For the first time in three years, 10-year Treasury yields in the U.S. have reached approximately 5%, as markets increasingly price a Federal Reserve rate hike this week. All of this occurs against a backdrop of bond yields exploding worldwide, hot U.S. inflation, and spiking oil prices, creating uneasy headlines for an increasingly unpopular administration entering the midterm elections.

The development matters given that Treasury yields are the reference price for borrowing not only across the entire U.S., but the entire global financial system. A 5% government benchmark changes the calculations for mortgages, corporate debt, private equity, infrastructure financing, and more. Throw in the other fiscal pressures, the global market is essentially facing a feedback loop: oil raises inflation, which boosts rates, causing government borrowing to become more expensive, and everything else with it.

So in short:

• 10-year Treasury briefly reached roughly 5%.

• Markets assign around a 90% probability to a Fed hike Wednesday.

• The move follows stronger-than-expected inflation.

• UK and German long-term yields are also elevated.

• Higher government funding costs make fiscal deficits more expensive.

• The threshold matters more as a signal than as a magical number.

The Three-Way Breakdown:

• Catalyst: U.S. borrowing costs rise.

• Ripple: Markets demand higher compensation to hold government debt.

• Transmission: Borrowing costs across the entire economy become more expensive for professional investors and everyday people.

OpenAI Delaying IPO Due to AI Safety Concerns

Going against the grain, Sam Altman confirmed that OpenAI will not be going public this year as expected. Citing the amount of work required around AI safety, Altman described going public in 2026 as an “ill-advised moment.” Markets had been expecting potentially blockbuster IPOs from both OpenAI and Anthropic this year; OpenAI’s pivot while it deals with the technological and regulatory implications of increasingly capable AI is likely to kickstart recalculations across Wall Street.

The timing of the safety justification is noteworthy; former OpenAI and Anthropic employee, Jacob Coxon, made headlines last week with a viral X post, warning that AI could “kill us all” by the end of the decade. It’s a sentiment that’s been echoed by others across Silicon Valley, prompting calls for greater AI regulation, even from the likes of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. However, President Donald Trump has rejected these calls, bringing into question whether further immediate regulation will take shape in the U.S.

So in short:

• OpenAI will not go public in 2026.

• Sam Altman cited AI safety and alignment concerns.

• Anthropic is reportedly still pursuing a 2026 IPO.

• The decision keeps OpenAI outside public-market valuation for now.

• AI investors are increasingly questioning the pace and capital intensity of frontier-model development.

The Three-Way Breakdown:

• Catalyst: OpenAI delays its 2026 IPO amid AI safety concerns.

• Ripple: Emerging AI development is facing greater scrutiny.

• Transmission: Investors may start reassessing the enormous capital needed to fund the AI infrastructure boom while DC policymakers debate regulation.

Honorable mentions:

• BRICS adopts the New Delhi Declaration. A major component of the piece calls for more financial transactions using the domestic national currencies of BRICS members rather than third-party currencies, worrying some to the rising trend of de-dollarization.

• India’s inflation pipeline is reopening. Speaking of New Delhi, its August retail inflation jumped to 4.82%, while wholesale inflation reached 9.92%. The added pressure of the Red Sea disruption likely means more woes for India’s tight fiscal picture.

• Japan’s monetary pivot. The Bank of Japan is expected to consider another rate hike this week as energy inflation, a weakening yen, and rising borrowing costs. This signals that the popular yen carry trade strategy is running out of room.

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UAE’s Masdar Inks 25-Year Deal for 1,000 MW Wind Farm in Egypt

Abu Dhabi-headquartered Masdar, in consortium with Infinity Power and Hassan Allam Utilities, has formally signed a 25-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company to construct a landmark 1,000 MW (1 GW) wind power project in Ras Shokeir along the Red Sea.

Expected to power over 1.2 million Egyptian homes and reduce carbon emissions by 1.36 million tonnes annually, the development aligns with Egypt’s ambitious national target to scale its renewable energy mix to 45% by 2028, as part of the country’s wider energy push. The deal further cements Gulf state capital and infrastructure dominance across critical North African energy transitions.

Nigeria in talks with UAE to Boost Power Generation Capacity by 5,000 MW

Nigeria’s Ministry of Power has opened high-level negotiations with the United Arab Emirates to secure financing and technical expertise aimed at adding 5,000 MW to Nigeria’s power grid, with a primary focus on solar energy infrastructure.

With Nigeria’s total installed capacity sitting at 13,625 MW but delivering only 4,000 MW to consumers due to severe grid decay, the talks come amid sweeping sector reforms that decentralize power generation down to subnational state governments. The bilateral dialogue also highlights the deepening relationship between Nigeria and the UAE, as Abu Dhabi seeks to expand its African investment portfolio to the continent’s western region.

Saudi Arabia’s HUMAIN Launching $10 Billion Global VC Fund

HUMAIN, Saudi Arabia’s flagship artificial intelligence company launched last year in May, confirmed plans for a global venture capital fund. In an interview with Semafor, CEO Tareq Amin stated that the fund will host offices in Saudi Arabia, the U.S., UK, and France, with the aim of investing in AI companies on the condition that they utilize Saudi data centers or bring staff to the kingdom.

Riyadh has increasingly positioned itself as a leading backer of Africa’s startup ecosystem; in 2024, Dubai-based investment company, the Mara Group, launched a $250 million fund at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, targeting growth-stage African startups. The new HUMAIN VC fund will likely accelerate this push, and will be particularly attractive for Egyptian startups, given close geographic and cultural proximity between Cairo and Riyadh.

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In late July, my feeds across LinkedIn, YouTube, and other platforms were bombarded with headlines of the joint U.S.-Japan intervention to save the falling yen. In what many were framing as signs of imminent economic collapse, the melodramatic captions seemed to warn that the global monetary system was itself facing a moment of absolute chaos.

Just a little over a month later, those captions may not have been entirely exaggerated.

Eyes are fixed right now on U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh over whether the Fed will raise or cut interest rates this September. Warsh recently admitted that if inflation doesn’t fall, boosting rates will be the most likely path forward.

The backdrop of this: the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.34%, a 19-year high, the same week the national debt crossed $40 trillion. And other countries aren’t insulated from the debt frenzy, either.

Japan’s 10-year bond yield hit a 30-year high of 2.93%. The Financial Times reported that France’s 10-year yield is hovering between 4.12% and 4.15%, nearly matching that of Italy; analysts are describing Paris as a “perfect storm” for bond investors, with Japanese investors–typically the largest holders of French debt–jumping ship and dumping their holdings.

The same story is playing out in other major economies, such as the UK and Germany.

When it becomes too expensive for governments to borrow money, that cost eventually trickles down to the average person. Mortgages, student loans, credit cards, and more are likely set to see their own rate hikes, following suit with bond yields.

The question left on everybody’s mind, from economists to retail traders to the everyday person struggling to get by financially: what’s driving this global bond market crisis?

Energy Crunch, Fiscal Crunch

When the U.S. launched its war against Iran on February 28, discussions were locked on the Strait of Hormuz and the ripple effects of its closure on global energy markets; the inlet’s closure has driven cumulative crude oil losses past 1 billion barrels.

What wasn’t as immediately discussed were the reverberations into wider fiscal pricing stability. Energy bleeds into almost every sector of the economy, even if indirectly: manufacturing, agriculture, and beyond.

The fashion retail industry is a prime example of this: petroleum-based synthetic fibers–basic clothing inputs that make up 65% of global textiles–have all seen price hikes, likewise jolting up price tags seen at clothing stores. Factories in Bangladesh, a critical global apparel sourcing hub, have also seen production slowdowns due to limited power to run textile machines, contributing to order delays.

Simon Wolfson, CEO of British retail giant Next plc, warned in March that the Iran war was likely to drive up clothing prices by up to 10% to offset the added fuel, freight, and fabric costs.

That economy-wide inflation spike is a scary prospect for bond investors, who demand higher bond yields to make up for eroded returns. As the Middle East crisis continues with no clear end in sight, it’s likely that inflation rates may reach new highs.

AI Dreams vs. Monetary Realities

Virtually every economic discussion finds its way back to the topic of artificial intelligence, and the global bond selloff is no exception.

Tech hyperscalers have increasingly turned to corporate bond issuance to make their AI ambitions a reality. Tech-related public bond sales reached a high of nearly $150 billion in 2025, as efforts to build out advanced algorithms and data centers have turned into an absolute market frenzy.

JPMorgan estimates AI capital expenditure in 2026 to be nearly $700 billion for just the five largest American technology and cloud companies, with corresponding capex expected to hit $5.3 trillion by 2030, according to Goldman Sachs.

In doing so, tech companies have effectively siphoned investor demand away from government bonds, pushing bond prices down and yields up. With both Anthropic and OpenAI set for big initial public offerings in the coming months, the capital drain from government debt may reach unprecedented heights, and with it, the global yield spike.

Intervention or Illusory Fix?

The U.S. Treasury’s response thus far has been doubling its bond buyback operations from $2 billion to $4 billion in an effort to shore up demand, pushing bond prices up and yields down.

Yet, economists remain skeptical of whether this intervention will pave the way for wider market stability. Thomas Simons, Chief U.S. Economist at Jefferies, criticized the emergency response as a “shot from the hip,” breaking with the Treasury’s standard of remaining “regular and predictable.”

While economists, policymakers, and investors worldwide hold their breath on what comes next, the average consumer had better get ready to recalculate just how much they can afford on their next credit card statement.

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Gulf Diesel Exports to Africa Fell by 200,000 Tonnes in August

Data from Kpler and Vortexa revealed that African countries are increasingly turning toward Asian nations, such as India, for oil, as the Iran war forces imports of Gulf oil to plummet. Data from LSEG and Kpler revealed that Middle East diesel exports to Africa fell from 800,000 to 600,000 tonnes in August. Most impacted by this was Saudi Arabia, which supplied 40% of the continent’s diesel in 2025.

East Africa remains particularly impacted, as countries in the Horn frequently turned to Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery, shipments from which fell to zero in August, according to Kpler. While such imports are likely to resume if an Iran ceasefire is secured, the long-lasting effects could see a shift in African oil import dynamics, increasing reliance on other regions and on building infrastructure within the continent to improve self-sufficiency, such as the Dangote Refinery.

India Revives Critical Minerals Discussions with Zambia

Officials from India’s Ministry of Mines confirmed that they had reopened discussions with Zambian counterparts on critical minerals cooperation. Previous talks earlier this year stalled over Indian mining rights for an area stretching 9,000 square kilometers. No further details were provided, but Khanij Bidesh India Ltd (KABIL), a joint venture company owned by the Indian government, is evaluating investment opportunities abroad, including in Africa.

If secured, the agreement could pave the way for deeper GCC-India mining cooperation in Africa, most notably in the case of the UAE, India’s largest economic partner in the Gulf. In July, an Indian consortium including KABIL signed a memorandum of understanding with UAE-based International Resources Holding (IRH) to collaborate on critical mineral exploration worldwide. India’s foray into Zambia could act as a milestone in this partnership, given that IRH holds a 51% stake in Zambia’s Mopani Copper Mines.

Germany Turns to Algeria for Alternative Energy Supply

German Minister of Foreign Affairs Johann Wadephul arrived in Algiers to discuss closer energy and investment collaboration between Germany and Algeria. In a press statement, Wadephul stated that Berlin was in need of energy diversification, and specifically looking for “long-term gas contracts.” Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory reports Germany’s gas storage to be at 53%, below the EU average of 65%, thus driving the need to turn to alternative energy supplies outside of the Gulf.

The move cements the growing European momentum to turn to North Africa—and Algeria specifically—for oil and gas. However, Algeria’s oil infrastructure is still developing to meet this surging European demand; Gulf investments, most notably from Saudi Arabia, will likely accelerate to support this push.

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Saturday morning sent shockwaves across the Nigerien capital of Niamey, as gunshots were heard near the country’s airport. What followed was a string of attacks stemming from the military facility Base 101. Lasting several hours, state television and the military confirmed that the perpetrators—a group of renegade soldiers launching a mutiny—were contained.

In what is now described as a coup d’état, the attempted takeover marks the second in Niger following the 2023 ousting of then-President Mohamed Bazoum. Moreover, the attempt adds to the series of coups that have taken the West African region by storm since 2020, as military takeovers increasingly become the norm in countries such as Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and others.

In what has been described as a “Coup Belt,” 17 coup attempts (10 successful, 7 failed) have erupted across eight African countries, the majority of which are concentrated in West Africa.

At a time when Europe is increasingly turning to Northwest Africa as an alternative energy supplier, the Coup Belt is driving anxiety for investors and policymakers in Lisbon and Madrid. The same concerns apply to those in Dubai and Riyadh, as Gulf capital increasingly expands in and around West Africa.

Even more potent is how much global mining dynamics can be dictated by West Africa, the countries of which hold heavy deposits of key minerals, such as gold and lithium. It’s a key reason why Middle Eastern states, such as Turkey, have become big purchasers of West Africa’s minerals.

Niger, for instance, is home to the world’s seventh-largest reserve of uranium, a critical mineral used in nuclear energy. Niamey has long been a key uranium supplier to Europe, and in 2024, it revoked French state-owned Orano’s mining permit for the Imouraren mine, home to roughly 200,000 tonnes of uranium.

Multiplying Europe’s concerns are the tentacles of Russia in these coups. The BBC reported the assistance of the Africa Corps—a Russian-backed paramilitary group—in countering the mutiny in Niger. The group has also emerged as a key backer of the new military governments in countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso, following the expulsion of leadership previously aligned with France, West Africa’s former colonizer.

Despite the West African concentration, the Coup Belt phenomenon is emblematic of the wider global democratic decline taking place.

Since 2012, West Africa has faced a heavy jihadist insurgency that has deteriorated stability across the region’s nations, contributing to widespread electoral support for standing regimes. In the aftermath of elections that maintain the unpopular status quo, armed forces seize power on the basis of restoring security.

The mechanism is clear in recent cases. Mali’s 2020 coup followed legislative elections in which several corruption scandals surrounded then-President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta. Guinea’s 2021 takeover came after President Alpha Condé engineered a constitutional change allowing himself a third term, then won an election the opposition rejected as fraudulent. Guinea-Bissau’s 2025 coup erupted when rival presidential candidates both declared victory, exposing the electoral process as theater rather than resolution.

Elections themselves have become coup triggers when perceived as rigged competitions that fail to address the country’s insecurity, rather than legitimate arbiters of power. Burkina Faso illustrates this dynamic with brutal clarity. The country experienced two coups in 2022 alone, the second justified by governmental failure to contain jihadist violence. Rather than breaking the cycle, military rule became part of it, with each set of officers promising the security their predecessors couldn’t deliver.

This is the “conflict trap” in action: a self-reinforcing cycle where insurgency leads to militarization, militarization leverages civilian frustration, and weakened regimes become vulnerable to intervention. The coup then deepens instability, creating conditions for the next seizure of power.

Amid it all, military leaders have seized on the tide of anti-French and anti-Western sentiment; the previous regimes’ failures to counter the wider insurgency have also drawn blame toward France and the United States, the key security partners of such governments. Russia’s involvement in such coup attempts is demonstrative of just that.

During a press briefing in Moscow between Ghana’s and Russia’s foreign ministers in August, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov specifically pointed fingers at France for laying the groundwork of insecurity in West Africa.

While the U.S. is stepping up efforts to reconcile with West Africa, Russia’s footprint has become too deeply ingrained to simply abandon. The rising presence of China, too, complicates the risk factor for everyone involved, from policymakers in DC to investors in Doha.

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Brent Crude Crosses $90 as U.S.-Iran Military Strikes Escalate

Brent crude surged past $90 a barrel after U.S. forces launched targeted strikes on Iranian rocket installations on Larak Island, prompting retaliatory missile attacks from Tehran against American bases in Jordan. The strikes mark the sharpest escalation in military hostilities along the Strait of Hormuz in a month, disrupting maritime traffic through a critical global energy choke point.

For global markets, businesses, and investors, the military flare-up reintroduces a heavy geopolitical risk premium into energy inputs, threatening to reignite corporate margin pressure and headline inflation. Sustained supply disruptions along Gulf trade routes threaten supply-chain stability, driving up maritime insurance premiums and freight rates across Africa and Europe while dampening global equity market sentiment.

Niger Mutiny Quelled by Russian Forces

Calm has returned to Niger’s capital following a brief 24-hour military mutiny against General Abdourahamane Tchiani’s ruling junta, which was ultimately quelled after Kremlin-backed Africa Corps forces intervened to bolster loyalist troops. The uprising highlights severe internal friction within Niger’s armed forces as the regime deepens its dependence on Russian security to maintain its grip on power following the complete withdrawal of Western allies.

For Gulf investors looking to West Africa, the incident signals heightened political instability and heightened operational risk across the Sahel region. The junta’s reliance on irregular foreign mercenaries rather than institutional military stability raises critical questions about sovereign risk, supply-chain continuity for regional mining assets, and the enforceability of existing commercial contracts under a volatile government.

Ramaphosa Bets on $90B Infrastructure Pipeline to Drive Growth

President Cyril Ramaphosa declared infrastructure development the cornerstone of South Africa’s economic recovery and regional trade strategy, urging faster execution of cross-border transport, energy, and digital networks. Addressing leaders at SIDSSA 2026, Ramaphosa detailed that the country’s strategic project portfolio has expanded to R1.67 trillion across 195 major projects, supported by enhanced coordination under Infrastructure South Africa to bridge project-financing gaps.

For Gulf investors, the announcement signals an expanding pipeline of bankable public-private partnerships (PPPs) in energy, logistics, and municipal utility sectors. This is particularly the case for the UAE, a longtime infrastructure partner to South Africa. However, long-term commercial upside hinges on government execution; addressing chronic project-preparation bottlenecks and municipal operational inefficiencies remains crucial to derisking capital deployment and achieving sustained economic integration across the SADC region.

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Ever since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the EU has been racing to secure new, reliable oil and gas supply chains. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February, when the US-Iran war began, is only deepening Europe’s energy crisis.

Shipping activity through the Hormuz has dropped over 90%, driving cumulative crude oil losses past 1 billion barrels by August. The crunch is driving up the cost of what little oil Europe still gets: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s address on April 13 confirmed that the EU’s fossil fuel import bill surged by over €22 billion without yielding a single additional unit of energy; von der Leyen also warned that supply disruptions were likely to persist even after any eventual ceasefire.

As the US and Iran continue to climb an escalatory ladder with no ceasefire in sight, and as Russia and Ukraine step up attacks on each other’s key export facilities, it’s clear that both Russian and Gulf energy remain off the table for European leaders.

What’s been a complete economic reckoning for Europe has become a lucrative revenue stream for North Africa, where two rival mega-projects are reshaping energy trade.

Two Pipelines, One Race

Algeria has emerged as a key winner of the Iran war, with southern European countries such as Spain and Italy turning to it for gas. That win is fueling one of Algiers’ biggest infrastructure projects: the Trans-Saharan Gas pipeline (TSGP).

A 4,128-kilometer pipeline, the long-standing proposal aims to connect West African upstream gas reserves directly to Southern European markets. Beginning in Warri, Nigeria, the TSGP passes through Niger before reaching the Hassi R’Mel gas hub in Algeria, where existing subsea pipelines carry that gas onward to Southern Europe.

On June 4, Algeria, Nigeria, and Niger convened in Algiers to establish a fast-tracked development roadmap: Algeria began physical construction on its 1,210 km northern section, with Niger set to follow in early 2027. Nigeria’s section is reportedly 60-70% complete.

Just across the Maghreb, another key pipeline is taking shape, in ironically, a country that is a net oil importer. The African Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP), also known as the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP), offers a competing maritime and overland route to deliver West African gas to Europe by bypassing the Sahel entirely.

Extending up to 7,000 km, the pipeline traverses 13 coastal nations, beginning in Nigeria and reaching northern Morocco, where gas connects to Europe via the Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline.

With a design capacity of 30 to 35 BCM per year, the AAGP will cost $25 to $26 billion, roughly double the TSGP.

Just a month after the TSGP’s breakthrough, the AAGP notched its own: an Intergovernmental Agreement was signed in Sierra Leone by the members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), formally endorsing the project’s regulatory framework. Final capital allocations, however, remain subject to syndicated loans.

Everyone Wants In

For Europe, the two pipelines—and North Africa’s wider energy potential—are too good to ignore.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni conducted high-level state visits to Algeria and Libya in March to secure long-term energy partnerships under Italy’s Mattei Plan, a €5.5 billion state-backed investment strategy for Africa. She returned to Libya in May to secure commitments to expand gas production.

Egypt and Libya, meanwhile, have opened talks on a joint $1 billion oil pipeline linking the two countries, delivering at least 1 million barrels of Libyan crude to Egyptian Mediterranean refineries. Analyst Cyril Widdershoven has called the project a “game-changer”, a sign of just how pivotal North Africa’s pipeline infrastructure has become to global energy trade, and likely the reason Europe and Gulf states have become leading financial backers of the continent’s energy rush.

While more time, development, and investment will be needed to realize this potential, the TSGP and AAGP represent a new frontier in Mediterranean energy trade. Libya and Egypt’s own pipeline push reflects this wider, accelerating trend. For Europe, it means building a decade-long bridge to survive its next energy crisis.

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Aliko Dangote Offers 30% Stake to East Africa for Regional Oil Refinery

Aliko Dangote, Nigerian businessman and Africa’s richest individual, is kickstarting plans for an oil refinery in Lamu, Kenya. Mirroring his signature refinery in Nigeria, Dangote has offered East African countries a 30% equity stake in the $16 billion project, which aims to process 700,000 barrels per day.

The offer marks a significant milestone in East Africa’s efforts to become a net oil producer. For Gulf states investing in East Africa, it would also act as a strategic opportunity for deeper energy collaboration. The UAE in particular is likely to benefit, given both its record investments in East Africa and existing collaborative history with Dangote.

DRC, M23 chart out a path toward peace negotiations

Following five days of discussions in Switzerland, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group have released a joint statement pledging to negotiate toward “comprehensive peace” and “conflict resolution,” according to the BBC. Such negotiations would utilize the previous Doha Framework Agreement as a launch pad. The discussions were attended by the DRC, M23, Switzerland, the United States, Qatar, and the African Union Commission.

The statement reflects the rising likelihood of stability being achieved in the DRC’s mineral-rich regions, with the country being home to the highest reserves of critical minerals such as cobalt and copper. Gulf investors are keen to see such peace talks persevere to deter risk as part of their mineral gambit in Africa; Qatar is most potently poised, given its heavy involvement in the peace talks.

Ethiopia secures preliminary agreement for eurobond restructuring

An agreement in principle (AIP) was struck between the Ethiopian government and private investors over the restructuring of a $1 billion eurobond. Currently being reviewed by the Official Creditor Committee (OCC), the AIP includes a “New Money Warrant” that allows bondholders to buy into a future Ethiopian eurobond of up to $1 billion.

The AIP marks a significant step forward in Ethiopia’s wider debt restructuring and elevates monetary confidence in Addis Ababa’s investment landscape. This is particularly critical for the UAE, already a leading investor in Ethiopia and increasingly a close political ally of Addis Ababa.

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Saudi Arabia Pivots to Mediterranean for Oil Exports

Saudi Arabia has dramatically shifted its crude export strategy, rerouting millions of barrels through Egypt to bypass Houthi attacks in the southern Red Sea and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Under the new pivot, Saudi crude moves west via pipeline to Yanbu before being shipped to Egypt’s Ain Sukhna terminal and pumped through the SUMED pipeline to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean.

However, this critical workaround remains heavily exposed. Houthi militants have warned they will expand missile and drone strikes into the northern Red Sea, putting tankers en route to Egypt directly in the crosshairs. With SUMED acting as Saudi Arabia’s primary alternative export valve to Western and Asian markets, expanding threats toward Egyptian transit corridors risk creating severe bottlenecks and renewing global energy market volatility.

Qatari Diar Launches $30 Billion Mediterranean City in Egypt

Qatari Diar has officially kicked off construction on phase one of its $29.5 billion Alam Al Roum development, marking one of the largest foreign real estate investments in Egypt’s history.

Located near Marsa Matrouh on Egypt’s northwestern Mediterranean coast, the 20.58-square-kilometer project aims to transform the pristine coastline into a year-round integrated city. Phase one, backed by an initial $4.5 billion allocation will feature luxury residences, four hotels, a 50-vessel marina, and swimmable artificial lakes. Handover is scheduled for 2030.

The first phase expects to generate 30,000 local jobs, delivering a critical foreign capital injection for Cairo’s economy.

Egypt Targets 45% Renewable Energy Mix by 2028

Egypt has ramped up its clean energy ambitions, setting a target for renewable sources to supply 45% of the nation’s electricity generation by 2028.

Following high-level strategy meetings in New Alamein, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and senior ministers outlined plans to expand green capacity while deploying battery energy storage systems to stabilize the national grid. The sector has drawn roughly $99.6 billion in investments since 2014 to modernize energy infrastructure and establish Egypt as a regional power hub.

Crucial to the push is industrial localization. President Al-Sisi mandated expanding domestic manufacturing for electrical equipment and battery systems, alongside value-added processing for strategic resources like rare-earth elements. The initiative seeks to strengthen energy security, foster local industry, and lower reliance on foreign supply chains during Egypt’s green transition.

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International attention is increasingly fixed on Sudan, where chaos is ensuing in the city of El Obeid.

The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary group, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), now in its fourth year, has increasingly expanded to the southern and eastern domains of the nation. Since the conflict’s beginning in 2023, over 150,000 deaths have been reported according to The New York Times, while the country has faced the collapse of both its economy and medical system.

A key turning point in the war occurred last October, when the RSF successfully expelled the SAF from the strategic position of El Fasher. The massacre that ensued saw over 6,000 deaths according to an OHCHR report, although some estimates place the figures far higher. Global concern is rising that a similar outcome may play out once more in El Obeid.

As such, this guide will explain the importance of El Obeid in the struggle between the SAF and RSF.

What is El Obeid?

El Obeid is the capital of North Kordofan, one of the three Kordofan states among Sudan’s eighteen provinces.

Sitting about 360 kilometers southwest of the capital of Khartoum, the city is home to an estimated population of 563,400 people, according to World Population Review. The city is also home to over 100,000 displaced people. A major SAF stronghold, El Obeid is home to the military’s 5th Infantry Division. An SAF airbase and its joint operations room with Egypt are also based there.

The city has since come under heavy drone fire from the RSF.

Why is El Obeid strategic?

Hosting key logistics for the SAF, El Obeid is an integral command hub of the military. Expelling the SAF from El Obeid not only provides the RSF with access to such logistics, but would be a pivotal morale hit for the military.

El Obeid is also a critical crossroads city. It lies at the intersection of highways linking central Sudan to Darfur and other southern states, and is home to the only functioning rail spur leading into western Sudan. That has made the city a critical transit point for the transfer of weapons among SAF units traversing central, western, and southern Sudan.

The city additionally carries economic weight. El Obeid is home to not only a large market of gum arabic–a strategic commodity used in everyday food products and beverages–but also a pipeline carrying South Sudanese oil to Port Sudan, the headquarters of the SAF.

What will victory in El Obeid mean?

An SAF victory cements its control over the critical supply chains carrying both weapons and commodities that will be vital to the larger war and Sudan’s economy. It would also act as a significant morale boost, particularly given the legacy of the El Fasher defeat.

For the RSF, successfully expelling the SAF from El Obeid would provide it greater control over the wider Kordofan region. Additionally, it would cement the paramilitary’s grip over supply routes not only to transit weapons across the nation, but also commodities that are pillars of Sudan’s economy. Given El Obeid’s proximity to Khartoum, the city could also act as a launching pad for an RSF siege of the capital, which was regained by the military in late 2024.

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