Subscribe now

Houthis Claim Drone Strike on Saudi Aramco’s Jizan Refinery

Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed a drone strike on Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refinery on Sunday, hours after Saudi authorities said firefighters had extinguished a blaze at the facility. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree called the strike “precise,” framing it as retaliation for Saudi drone incursions into northwest Yemen. Riyadh’s energy ministry confirmed the fire but did not disclose its cause, reporting no injuries. The refinery was also hit by the Houthis in July.

The attack follows the apparent collapse last month of a 2022 truce in Yemen’s civil war, with the Houthis declaring a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and striking tankers in the Red Sea. The escalation coincides with Iran’s ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Saudi Arabia to form a maritime pact consisting of both Middle Eastern and Northeast African countries.

Egypt to Award Seven Oil and Gas Blocks in Push for New Investment

Egypt is set to award seven oil and gas exploration blocks, aiming to attract $60-70 million in fresh investment, officials announced during a ministerial visit to the Al-Baraka field in Aswan. Samir Raslan of the South Valley Egyptian Petroleum Holding Company said six blocks in southern Egypt will likely go to Canada’s Mediterra and the state-run General Petroleum Company, while a seventh in the Red Sea is expected to be awarded to BP.

The move comes as part of Egypt’s wider push to become a net energy exporter once again. The ongoing crisis in the Red Sea, however, may spark investor uncertainty over Egypt’s energy developments located along the country’s eastern coast.

Sudan’s Official Gold Exports Match Full-Year 2025 Total in Just Six Months

Sudan’s official gold exports over the first half of 2026 matched the entire volume recorded for 2025, Minerals Minister Nour al-Dayem Taha announced Sunday, crediting new anti-smuggling measures. Speaking after meeting Prime Minister Kamel Idris, Taha said tighter controls are pushing more gold through formal banking channels.

The gains follow last week’s move by Sudan’s Security and Defence Council to establish dedicated courts for gold-smuggling cases and bar military and paramilitary forces from mining sites. The scale of past leakage is significant: Sudan produced 70 tons of gold last year, but only 14 tons were officially exported.

Such crackdowns occur amid rising Gulf investments in Sudan’s mining sector, with both Saudi Arabia and Qatar having announced gold-related partnerships with Sudan. Given the significant deposits of gold located along the country’s Red Sea coastline, the ongoing smuggling trend and Red Sea crisis elevates the risk calculus of such deals.

Share

Subscribe now

Yemeni Houthis Ramp Up Attacks on Saudi Oil Tankers in Red Sea

While tensions in the Strait of Hormuz seemingly ease, hostilities in the Red Sea continue to rise. The Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis have increased their strikes on vessels traversing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait–through which roughly 5% of global energy passes–having struck both the NCC WAFA and Daisy, two Saudi Arabian-flagged oil tankers, according to the group’s spokesperson Yahya Sare’e on X.

The sustained tensions threaten to keep energy prices elevated, even if a long-term deal is secured over the Hormuz.

DP World Establishing $3 Billion Economic Zone in Kenya

Emirati logistics company DP World has announced a partnership with GulfCap Africa, a Kenya-based investment and development group. The partnership will see the two develop a special economic zone spanning 222 hectares in Kenya, dubbed the “Mombasa Industrial Park.” The project comes on the heels of the January 2025 agreement signed between the UAE and Kenya to deepen trade and investment.

The move strengthens the UAE’s growing investment pattern across Africa’s ports. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed both the UAE and Saudi Arabia to increase reliance on the Red Sea, paving the way for deeper economic relations with East African states, such as Kenya.

Kenya Looks to World Bank for $450 Million Emergency Loan to Counter Iran War Effects

Kenya is currently in negotiations with the World Bank over an emergency loan totaling $450 million. Dubbed the Contingent Emergency Response Project (CERP), the proposed fund aims to help cushion Kenya’s economy against multiple pressure points.

Chief among them are heightened energy prices amid the Iran war, given Nairobi’s status as a net oil importer. An additional concern is El Niño, set to cause higher rainfall and disrupt agricultural production, a key economic revenue stream for Kenya.

The financing is expected to be finalized and available by October.

Emirates NBD to Acquire HSBC Egypt’s Retail Business After 3% Net Profit Rise

Emirates NBD Egypt has agreed to acquire HSBC Bank Egypt’s retail banking business, including its branches, ATMs, customer base and relevant staff, pending regulatory approval and with financial terms undisclosed. Vice chairman and managing director of Emirates NBD, Hesham Abdulla Al Qassim, cited Emirates NBD’s confidence in the Egyptian market as a key driver in the acquisition.

The move is part of Emirates NBD’s broader global expansion following a 3% year-on-year increase in net profit in the first half of 2026. Emirates NBD has also recently acquired RBL Bank in India and submitted a revised bid for a stake in IDBI Bank, as it aims to strengthen its global market position.

Subscribe now

For years, the relationship between Riyadh and Rabat ran on monarchical goodwill and shared positions at the Arab League. That has changed. Since 2023, Saudi capital has moved into Morocco’s power sector at a scale that turns diplomatic friendship into industrial dependency, and the vehicle for that shift is green energy.

In March 2025, Morocco’s government approved six green hydrogen and green ammonia projects worth a combined $32.5 billion under its Offre Maroc (Morocco Offer) framework, a national strategy to cultivate the country’s green energy sector. As part of that March 2025 approval, Saudi utility giant ACWA Power was pre-selected to lead several of the projects launched. By February 2026, that commitment had moved from paper to land: binding agreements allocated up to 30,000 hectares per project out of a one-million-hectare national reserve set aside for the buildout.

Noteworthy is that ACWA Power is far from a small energy player in Saudi dynamics. Owned 44.2% by the country’s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), ACWA has become a critical conduit for Saudi investments in Morocco. Through ACWA, PIF has become Rabat’s largest foreign private power developer, with a portfolio that includes the four solar plants in Ouarzazate and the Khalladi wind farm under the Noor Solar Complex. These assets were built through Build-Own-Operate-Transfer contracts worth well over $1.5 billion combined.

Why Green Energy?

Morocco’s geographic positioning doesn’t just lend itself to World Cup hosting. Sitting 14 kilometers from Spain across the Strait of Gibraltar, two subsea cables are already carrying 1400 MW from Morocco to the European grid, with a third under construction. Between limited oil supply and driving heatwaves, Europe is increasingly turning to North Africa as an energy lifeline, with Morocco in particular shaping to be the go-to renewable energy provider. Helping to cultivate Rabat’s green energy sector enables Riyadh to bolster its own ties with Europe, even if indirectly.

Renewable energy is nothing more than a dream without phosphate, and by a large margin, Morocco has the world’s highest phosphate reserves. Holding approximately 50 billion metric tons, the North African country accounts for roughly 70% of the global supply.

Morocco hopes to tap into that supply in order to fuel higher production levels, which Saudi Arabia is more than happy to support: Morocco’s phosphate giant, OCP Group, needs vast volumes of green ammonia to decarbonize fertilizer production at Jorf Lasfar. Saudi-backed hydrogen projects lock in that industrial customer before a single molecule is exported, a hedge against the possibility that European offtake deals for green hydrogen prove slower to materialize than hoped.

Converging with Morocco’s own interests are those of Saudi Arabia. Renewable projects live and die on financing costs, and Saudi Arabia’s access to cheap sovereign liquidity—sukuk issuances, syndicated Islamic financing—lowers the cost of building solar and wind in a market that would otherwise pay a steeper risk premium. And as much of the world increasingly turns to green energy as globe energy markets remain volatile, multimillion dollar investments in Morocco’s renewable landscape converts Saudi oil revenue into an insurance policy against declining fossil fuel demand.

Chiefly, none of this is separable from geopolitics. Saudi Arabia has consistently backed Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara at the UN and Arab League; notably, some of ACWA’s solar capacity sits inside the disputed territory itself, at Laayoune and Boujdour. Capital deployment there functions as a vote of commercial confidence layered on top of diplomatic support.

The Fine Print

The relationship isn’t friction-free. NOORo III, ACWA’s flagship solar tower, sat offline for 14 months after a molten salt tank leak in early 2024, costing an estimated $45-47 million in lost revenue and over $51 million in repairs. Falling photovoltaic (PV) costs—down to $0.03-0.05/kWh versus $0.15-0.18/kWh for older CSP technology—have already pushed Morocco to redesign future tenders around PV-plus-battery storage instead. And the unresolved liquidation of the Saudi-owned SAMIR refinery, dormant since 2015 with over $4.4 billion in defaulted debt, remains a cautionary footnote regulators haven’t forgotten.

Still, the trajectory is clear. What began as royal solidarity has hardened into an energy partnership with real land, real megawatts, and a $32.5 billion pipeline behind it, one where Saudi Arabia isn’t just investing in Morocco’s transition, but underwriting a piece of its own.

Share

Subscribe now

Saudi Arabia Launches Red Sea Coalition Amid Houthi Threats

Saudi Arabia has announced a new multinational maritime coalition aimed at securing the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Gulf of Aden, as Houthi attacks on shipping intensify following the collapse of a four-year truce. Riyadh will lead the effort from its capital, coordinating intelligence-sharing and joint naval operations among member states.

Membership spans across both the Middle East and Northeast Africa: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Yemen, Egypt, Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, and the Comoros. The alliance will also include international partners, such as Turkey, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

The coalition responds to mounting threats to a corridor carrying roughly 12% of global trade, including oil and LNG shipments. Disruptions have already pushed shippers toward the longer Cape of Good Hope route, hurting Suez Canal revenues and raising global shipping costs.

OPEC+ to raise crude oil output amid Iran war

OPEC+ confirmed on Sunday it will raise oil output by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September—a sixth straight monthly increase—but will pause further hikes in the fourth quarter, keeping around two million bpd of 2022 cuts in place.

Seven core producers—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman—approved the rise virtually, with Iraq’s prime minister pressing for a bigger quota to match capacity. The decision comes as the U.S.-Iran war hits an uneasy pause, with Washington halting strikes after both Iran and regional states pushed for a pause to the fighting.

Oil prices posted their biggest monthly gains since March in July, with Brent up 24% and WTI up 21%, as Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping add further pressure on global supply routes.

Oil Profits Ride Iran War High But Analysts Warn of Macro Trading

The U.S.-Iran war has fueled outsized short-term gains across the oil sector, though analysts warn against treating the conflict as a long-term investing thesis, according to a piece published by CNBC. As of last Friday, U.S. crude traded under $85 a barrel and Brent near $90, both down more than 5% for the week on hopes of de-escalation.

Blowout earnings from Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Valero underscored how war-driven volatility has boosted profits, with oil-refiner and crude-volatility ETFs among the biggest winners of the past six months.

Yet, analysts note the energy rally actually predates the war, tracing back to inflows following the 2024 U.S. election. Futures-tracking ETFs like DBO carry far higher volatility than equity funds like XLE, appealing to short-term traders. But experts caution that geopolitically driven markets are too unpredictable for investors with a longer time horizon.

Share

Subscribe now

U.S. Launches $5.7 Million Western Sahara Green Energy Project

The U.S. Trade and Development Agency has awarded $5.7 million to ORNX—a consortium of America’s Ortus Climate Mitigation and the Spanish-German Acciona-Nordex Green Hydrogen venture—marking Washington’s first federal support for a renewable energy project in Western Sahara, Bloomberg reported.

The grant funds a feasibility study for a proposed $4.5 billion green ammonia plant in Laayoune, expected to produce 560,000 metric tonnes annually using solar and wind power.

The funding underscores deepening U.S.-Morocco ties since Washington recognized Rabat’s sovereignty over the disputed territory in 2020. The funding also acts as another major step in the development of Morocco’s green energy sector, which has been a major focus of Gulf investments in the North African kingdom. Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power, for instance, recently gained a permit in northern Morocco tied to the Khalladi wind project.

Japan Backs Namibia Rare Earth Project to Cut China Dependence

Japan’s JOGMEC will invest up to C$47.7 million ($33.9 million) in TJ Namibia Rare Earths, a Toyota Tsusho subsidiary, to develop the Lofdal heavy rare earth deposit in Namibia’s Kunene Region, potentially Japan’s first rare earth mine in Africa. The deposit holds significant dysprosium and terbium, critical for magnets used in EVs, wind turbines and defense equipment.

The investment is part of Tokyo’s push to diversify mineral supply chains after China repeatedly tightened rare earth export controls, including measures targeting Japan in January and twice in February this year. A feasibility study will now proceed toward a final decision by March 2027.

The move draws in a new player into the wider chase for critical minerals across Africa. Gulf mining companies will take closer note in order to identify growing competitors.

Anglo American Nears $1 Billion De Beers Sale Amid Diamond Slump

Anglo American Plc is in talks to offload its De Beers diamond business for roughly $1 billion, Bloomberg reported, a steep markdown for a company once synonymous with global diamond dominance. The move continues Anglo’s portfolio overhaul since repelling BHP Group’s nearly $50 billion takeover bid in 2024.

A prolonged downturn in diamond demand has repeatedly hit De Beers’ valuation, with Anglo booking three impairment charges over three years and cutting the unit’s book value to $2.3 billion by February. A $1 billion price tag would mark a sharp discount to that figure and to De Beers’ storied past as the industry’s near-monopoly leader.

The move comes as Botswana, one of the world’s largest diamond producers, has been looking to increase its stake in De Beers, in conjunction with investors in the UAE and Oman.

Share

Subscribe now

My most recent trip to the African continent was in Côte d’Ivoire. Between the busy roads, dazzling night sky, and energetic music that gripped everyday life, one thing stuck out to me: just how little sun the largest city, Abidjan, was getting.

Gray clouds and heavy rain were a constant throughout my weeklong trip, from the moment I landed until I took off.

For me, it was a small downside to an otherwise stellar trip. For farmers across the country, though, it’s been a nightmare.

Cocoa Under Pressure

A report from Reuters in early June detailed the adoption of increased premiums on new export contracts by the Abidjan-based Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC), in an effort to slow down cocoa sales.

The reason: weather. The rainy season has made harvesting cocoa more difficult than ever, with global broker XTB reporting preliminary estimates that the country’s cocoa exports could fall by roughly 0.4 million tonnes beginning this September, compared to the current season.

Compounding those fears is El Niño, the weather phenomenon pushing Pacific Ocean temperatures up and sparking ripple effects worldwide. In the case of Côte d’Ivoire, the effect is expected to be drier and hotter weather, further derailing harvesting efforts.

The end result: limited supply facing skyrocketing cocoa demand. That clash is now showing up in the markets.

This year has been a rollercoaster ride for the commodity, with ICE cocoa futures having climbed back above $5,000 per tonne earlier this month, according to XTB. The climb comes off a similar rally in February.

That hit is being felt by the companies most reliant on cocoa. Swiss chocolatier Lindt has seen its shares fall by 29% this past year, while Nestlé’s shares dropped 7% last Thursday, prompted by lower sales tied to higher cocoa prices.

When Cocoa Sneezes, Chocolate Catches a Cold

What happens with cocoa doesn’t just stay with cocoa. Everybody’s favorite sweet treat, chocolate, is feeling the pressure of the volatility, too.

Accounting for roughly 40% of the global supply, Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest cocoa exporter, with the commodity at the core of the country’s agricultural sector.

Those cocoa beans, shipped to both Europe and Asia, are the backbone of chocolate production, serving as the foundational base and creating the core flavor, texture, and identity. Simply put, without cocoa, chocolate wouldn’t exist, leaving our sweet tooth craving something else.

All of which is why chocolate was inevitably going to feel the pressure of the ongoing cocoa crisis. ABC News reported a 14.4% rise in chocolate prices at the start of 2026 compared to the same time last year. Similarly, The Times reported that UK chocolate prices soared 27% between 2023 and 2025. It’s part of the reason Nestlé, according to Times, has reduced the concentration of cocoa butter in its products.

Analysts are pointing to weather difficulties and harvest delays in Côte d’Ivoire and the wider West African region as the root cause. Throw in climate change into the picture, it may not be a crisis that ends anytime soon.

Dubai Chocolate: The Canary in the Coal Mine

Arguably the chocolate product most exposed to this is Dubai chocolate, bars filled with both kunafa and pistachio cream. Since going viral online in 2023, demand for Dubai chocolate has soared, and with it, pistachio prices. Compartes Chocolatier reports that in just under a year, U.S. pistachio prices jumped from $7.65 a pound to over $10.30, driven in part by the craze over Dubai chocolate.

Given that demand, Dubai chocolate is likely to feel the pressure of the heightening cocoa crisis stemming from Côte d’Ivoire on top of an existing squeeze. According to Financial Times, the war in Iran has already disrupted pistachio trade, given that Iran exports roughly a fifth of the world’s supply. Côte d’Ivoire’s own difficulties are set to compound that.

For all of us chocolate lovers with a sweet tooth: be prepared to drop more bank for your favorite late-night dessert.

Share

Subscribe now

Washington Unveils $500M U.S.-Africa Critical Minerals Investment Push

The U.S. has launched a $500 million U.S.-Africa Strategic Investment Program focused on securing access to Africa’s critical minerals. The program, administered by the State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs, will award up to 10 grants of $5-50 million to strengthen mineral supply chains and expand U.S. business opportunities across sub-Saharan Africa. The initiative also supports geological mapping, regulatory reform, and workforce development. It marks a pivotal shift toward prioritizing private investment over traditional foreign aid.

Gulf advancements into Africa’s critical mineral landscape has largely been done in partnership with Washington. In March, American investment firm Cove Capital and Saudi conglomerate AHQ announced a joint multibillion-dollar fund to invest in critical minerals projects across Africa. The new program will likely pave the way for similar future partnerships.

ECOWAS Backs $25bn Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline

West African leaders have signed an intergovernmental agreement giving regional backing to the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline, a roughly 6,000 kilometer project set to carry Nigerian natural gas along Africa’s Atlantic coastline to Morocco. The pipeline would then connect to the existing Maghreb-Europe pipeline, extending supply to Spain and beyond.

The plan envisions moving 30 billion cubic metres of gas annually, with about 15 billion destined for Morocco and onward to Europe. Estimated at $25-27bn, the project still requires investors and a final investment decision, with construction targeted to start in 2028.

North Africa’s energy sector has become a focal point for Gulf foreign investment: in late June, Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power secured a new permit in northern Morocco tied to the Khalladi wind project. As the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline searches for investors, those in Riyadh and elsewhere in the GCC are likely to step forward.

Mali’s Gold Output Set to Stay Below 60 Tons Through 2029

Mali’s mines ministry expects industrial gold production to remain under 60 metric tons annually through 2029, according to a government plan seen by Reuters, extending a decline tied to a revised mining code and disputes with foreign miners.

The 2026-2029 forecast projects output at 43.2 tons in 2026, rising to 51.2 tons in 2027, peaking at 57 tons in 2028, then easing to 50 tons in 2029. That follows a drop to 42.2 tons in 2025 from 54.8 tons in 2024, well below the 2023 record of 66.5 tons.

Gulf mining countries, increasingly focused on expanding gold supply chains throughout Africa, will watch the developments closely. Despite Mali’s gold wealth, the country’s tightening controls may deter GCC companies from entering the market.

Share

Subscribe now

Oil Climbs to $100 As Iran War Expands to Red Sea

The end of May saw Brent crude trade at its highest levels of above $100, a peak that was quickly calmed after a ceasefire was agreed between the United States and Iran. However, with the ceasefire having collapsed and the Yemeni Houthis announcing an attack on two Saudi Arabian tankers, oil prices have rebounded back to $100. The compounding effect of both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb—two of the world’s most critical chokepoints for oil trade—is suffocating global energy markets. Financial Times reports fears of oil prices potentially exceeding the 2022 high of $139 a barrel following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Egypt Launches Wave of Energy Exploration and Development Deals

Amid the wider energy shocks rippling from the Iran crisis, Egypt is accelerating its own domestic energy development. Parliament approved four separate agreements focused on oil and gas exploration and development, covering North Sinai, the Nile Delta, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Eastern Desert.

The dealmaking efforts come not only as Egypt aims to court greater foreign investment in its own energy sector, but also aims to integrate itself in the sectors of its neighbors. Recently, an Egyptian consortium consisting of Petrojet and Enppi was shortlisted by Petroleum Development Oman to bid for its $6 billion project portfolio.

New American Executive Order Heightens the Critical Minerals Race in Africa

The U.S. unveiled a new defense-focused Executive Order, calling for the securement of vital supply chains to bolster American security capabilities. In particular, the Order focuses on the procurement of critical minerals, not only to enhance current American equipment and supplies, but also to weaken the supply chain grip of rivals, most notably China.

With Africa being home to roughly 30% of the world’s known critical mineral reserves, the Order is likely to draw the continent into greater focus in American foreign policy, with a particular emphasis on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), South Africa, and Zambia, home to some of the continent’s largest reserves.

With Gulf states likewise advancing their own critical mineral interests in the continent and deepening their defense partnerships with the U.S.—such as with the recent nuclear accord signed between Washington and Riyadh—the GCC’s mining relationship with Africa is likely to include Washington as a key partner.

Share

Subscribe now

While much of the world remains fixed on the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea has re-entered the geopolitical fold and this time, the fallout may reach far beyond oil markets.

Last week, the internationally recognized government of Yemen claimed an attack on Sanaa International Airport. In response, the Iran-backed Houthis declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, threatening any vessel attempting to dock at Saudi ports.

It’s not the first time. The Houthis blockaded the Red Sea at the end of 2023, and a ceasefire signed with the United States in mid-2025 briefly cooled hostilities. But the re-ignition of the Iran conflict has pushed tensions with the Houthis back to a boiling point, and this time, the group is targeting Saudi Arabia.

The renewed threat compounds an already fragile global energy picture: roughly 20% of global oil flows through the Hormuz, while another 5% transits the Red Sea. In 2024 alone, 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

But energy is only part of the story. Across East Africa, a new crisis threatens something less visible but equally consequential: a young, fast-growing blue economy startup ecosystem that has spent the past several years building investor confidence in the region’s maritime future.

A prolonged blockade wouldn’t just disrupt shipping lanes; it would disrupt the risk calculus that foreign investors use to decide whether East African ports, ecosystems, and coastlines are safe places to deploy capital. That’s where this crisis really bites.

A Blue Economy Built on Foreign Confidence

Africa’s bluetech sector is projected to generate $1.5 trillion in revenue by 2050, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Much of that growth has been driven by a wave of innovators and startups increasingly oriented toward both the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.

That momentum has been backed by real capital. The Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association runs innovation funds offering grants of up to $200,000 to new ventures. Pangea Accelerator, a joint Kenyan-Norwegian initiative, has become one of the first blue-economy accelerators operating in Africa, linking regional startups to global investors focused on maritime trade. Seychelles issued the world’s first sovereign “blue bond,” backed by institutions including Calvert Impact Capital. And pan-African enabler OceanHub Africa has backed 32 ocean-impact startups with more than $10 million in external funding.

The momentum hasn’t gone unnoticed geopolitically. The EU launched BlueInvest Africa in 2022 specifically to connect African entrepreneurs and SMEs in the blue economy space, partly to advance marine renewable energy and maritime security cooperation. That strategic interest has helped fuel a broader rise in cleantech investment across the continent: according to investment firm Partech Partners, cleantech—which includes the blue economy—drew $192 million in venture capital in 2024, the second-highest total of any sector.

Why a Saudi Blockade Threatens a Kenyan Startup

Taken into account, what may unfold in the Red Sea is more than just an oil story: nearly 80% of venture capital funding in Africa comes from abroad, according to the International Finance Corporation. That dependence is a strength in calm waters and a liability in rough ones. Foreign investors don’t need a blockade to reach their ports; they simply need enough uncertainty about regional stability to delay a funding round or reallocate capital to calmer markets.

Startups in this space largely lack the balance sheets, insurance infrastructure, or geopolitical hedges that larger shipping and energy firms rely on to absorb this kind of shock, which means the ecosystem’s most promising ventures are also its most exposed.

What’s at Stake if the Bab el-Mandeb Escalates

Just as the Strait of Hormuz matters for far more than oil, the consequences of a new Red Sea crisis extend well beyond shipping insurance premiums and freight rates. If hostilities along the Bab el-Mandeb escalate further, the pressure won’t fall only on major maritime shipping companies. It will also land on the small innovators building marine renewable energy projects, ocean-health startups, and blue bonds in Mombasa and Dar es Salaam. Ventures that took years to attract foreign capital are now most likely to retreat at the first sign of sustained instability.

The Red Sea crisis throughout 2024 showed how quickly a regional blockade can ripple through global shipping. What it didn’t fully reveal—because the timeline was shorter and the venture ecosystem was younger—is how a second, prolonged crisis might reshape investor appetite for East Africa’s blue economy for years to come. That is the story worth watching now, alongside the headlines out of the Hormuz.

Share

Subscribe now

Adnoc Distribution to Acquire Shell’s South African Fuel Business in $1 Billion Deal

Adnoc Distribution, part of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation (ADNOC) based in the UAE, has reached an agreement with oil giant Shell over its fuel business in South Africa. As part of the $1 billion deal, Adnoc Distribution will acquire 100% of Shell Downstream South Africa’s (SDSA) share capital, including 580 fuel stations and other operations. Adnoc Distribution anticipates the deal will boost its earnings per share by 6% in the first full year after completion.

First Abu Dhabi Bank Inches Closer to South African Expansion After Legal Victory

First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), the UAE’s largest lender and one of the most prominent financial institutions in the Middle East and North Africa, has made progress toward establishing itself in South Africa. On July 7, the South African Supreme Court of Appeal ruled that FAB is eligible to register local trademarks, after a dispute launched by FirstRand–which owns the retail banking brand FNB–argued that the name “First Abu Dhabi Bank” was too close to its own.

The timing is notable: not only have international banks such as HSBC withdrawn from South Africa recently, but Gulf countries are increasingly deepening economic ties with the Southern African region more broadly in banking and finance.

South Africa Proposes Overhaul of Fuel Reserve Policy

Amid tightening oil supply linked to the Iran crisis, South Africa’s Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources issued a draft policy document outlining changes to fuel reserve requirements. According to African Economy Inc., the proposal calls for licensed wholesalers and fuel importers to maintain fuel stocks equal to 21 days of supply; 70% as crude oil and the remaining 30% as refined petroleum products. The government would also establish a strategic reserve equivalent to 60 days of national supply.

The proposal is currently undergoing public consultation before adoption.

Share

Subscribe now

SOUTH AFRICA: ADNOC Nears $1 Billion Deal for Shell’s South African Gas Stations

Adnoc Distribution, a unit of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, is reportedly nearing a $1 billion deal to buy Shell’s gas station network in South Africa, according to Bloomberg.

The acquisition would hand Adnoc more than 600 outlets and roughly 10% market share in the country. Talks have reportedly been ongoing since 2024, continuing even through disruptions tied to the Iran conflict that affected Adnoc’s broader business.

The move is part of Adnoc’s broader efforts to expand its reach across emerging markets. Adnoc’s low-carbon arm XRG signed a deal to take a 32% stake in three Argentine gas blocks, underscoring how aggressively the Adnoc ecosystem is currently expanding globally, across both fuel retail and upstream energy.

EGYPT: UAE Secures $200 Million Real Estate Contract

Abu Dhabi-based holding company Modon Holding awarded a $200 million (EGP 10 billion) infrastructure contract for the Wadi Yemm district to a joint venture between Egypt’s Rowad Modern Engineering and Greece’s Consolidated Contractors Company.

Wadi Yemm will be the first luxury residential destination within the broader Ras El Hekma development, featuring residential units, hotels, two golf courses, a country club, and a 10,000-seat open-air theatre.

The announcement comes as part of a wider wave of Gulf capital reshaping Egyptian real estate, particularly from the UAE. In January, Modon awarded a separate $316 million (EGP 15 billion) contract to Egypt’s Orascom Construction for a mixed-use project within the same mega-development. Similarly, Emirati firm Majid Al Futtaim recently agreed to a $4 billion contract with New Cairo’s Mada City.

ETHIOPIA: Preliminary Agreement Signed to Restructure $1 Billion Eurobond

Ethiopia’s Ministry of Finance issued a statement confirming a preliminary agreement was reached with bondholders to restructure the country’s $1 billion Eurobond. The deal will see the introduction of a new financial instrument offered to bondholders, alongside the formation of a New Money Warrant.

The announcement marks a pivotal step in restoring investor confidence in Ethiopia, particularly within the GCC. This is especially important for the UAE, a close political ally of Addis Ababa. A report from July 2025 by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies states that the UAE has thus far invested $2.3 billion in Ethiopia; the bond restructuring will likely pave the way for increased investment.

Share

Subscribe now

The end of 2021 cast a shadow over relations between the United Arab Emirates and Nigeria. The UAE’s General Civil Aviation Authority restricted Nigeria’s sole international carrier, Air Peace, to a single weekly slot at Sharjah International Airport. Nigeria’s Civil Aviation Authority retaliated, slashing Emirates Airlines’ winter schedule from 21 weekly flights to one. Emirates suspended all passenger flights to Nigeria outright.

The spat didn’t stay in the skies. Nigeria’s central bank blocked airlines from repatriating ticket revenue in American dollars, trapping $85 million of Emirates’ earnings by July 2022. By October of that year, Abu Dhabi had imposed a visa ban on Nigerian nationals.

Flash forward to 2026, and that shadow has been illuminated.

Nigeria has drawn the first tranche of a $5 billion financing arrangement from First Abu Dhabi Bank, Bloomberg reported. Days after Dangote Group founder Aliko Dangote met with ADNOC Group CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber in Abu Dhabi, the Dangote Refinery purchased two cargoes of Emirati crude, according to S&P Global. And in an interview with BusinessDay, UAE Minister of Foreign Trade Thani Al Zeyoudi called Nigeria a cornerstone of Emirati investment in Africa, pointing to a record $5 billion in bilateral trade in 2025.

The Abuja-Abu Dhabi relationship went from frozen to foundational in record time. As the UAE’s African ambitions expand beyond its traditional foothold in the northeast of the continent, Nigeria is emerging as the linchpin of its push westward.

A Rocky Start, A Rapid Thaw

The UAE and Nigeria established diplomatic relations in 1982, but it wasn’t until 2009, after the UAE opened an embassy in Abuja, that ties began to deepen in earnest.

The real turning point came in January 2016, when then-Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari traveled to Abu Dhabi for a state visit. The two countries signed six foundational treaties covering everything from double taxation to extradition, a framework meant to stimulate capital flows between the two governments.

The Air Peace-Emirates standoff threatened to undo years of that groundwork. Instead, what followed was the emergence of something bigger: a West Africa-Gulf trade corridor, with Nigeria at the helm.

Bilateral trade has nearly tripled since 2019, climbing from $1.45 billion to $4.8 billion in 2025, according to BusinessDay. A 2024 breakdown by the Observatory of Economic Complexity tells a deeper story: UAE exports to Nigeria totaled $1.49 billion—nearly $1 billion of it refined petroleum—while Nigeria’s exports to the UAE reached just $148 million, largely raw petroleum gas. Nigeria, in other words, is still exporting the raw input and buying back the refined product.

That’s starting to change. The 700-kilometer Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, linking major economic zones along Nigeria’s Atlantic coast, secured $1.126 billion in financing in December 2025, $626 million of which was underwritten by First Abu Dhabi Bank. In April, Nigeria struck a separate partnership with DP World and AD Ports Group to launch a new national shipping line, a bid to boost its maritime trade.

Betting on a Younger, Bigger Nigeria

Nigeria’s appeal to Abu Dhabi isn’t just about today’s trade figures, it’s about who’s about to enter the workforce. As Africa’s most populous country, with a median age of just 18.1 years according to the World Economic Forum, Nigeria is heading into a demographic boom that’s expected to accelerate growth in gas, mining, and maritime industries—exactly the sectors the UAE has staked its African strategy on.

Abu Dhabi’s investments on the continent have historically clustered in the north and east. West Africa’s mineral wealth and proximity to European markets are changing that calculus, and Nigeria is positioning itself as the anchor of the UAE’s pivot west.

The next phase of the relationship looks set to run through renewable energy. Emirati state-owned Masdar has named Nigeria a target market in its Africa-wide clean energy push, part of a plan to deploy 20,000 megawatts of renewable capacity across the continent over the next twelve years.

And as for who’s brokering the deals on the ground: expect Dangote Group to keep doing it. Dangote himself has emerged as the UAE’s go-to local partner, and with his refinery now buying Emirati crude directly, it’s a fair bet he won’t be the last Nigerian businessman making the trip to Abu Dhabi.

Share

Subscribe now

MOROCCO: Saudi’s Acwa Power Secures $60 Million Permit

Acwa Power, a renewable energy development and investment company based in Saudi Arabia, gained a new permit in northern Morocco tied to the Khalladi wind project. Totalling roughly $60 million, the permit will expand the 120MW plant over the next two years to meet rising industrial demand. The permit increases Acwa’s already substantial footprint in Morocco, with $3 billion invested in Morocco to date.

Acwa Power is 44% owned by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, and its shares are up about 9% year-to-date despite Q1 net profit falling 19%. Its increasing involvement in Morocco reflects Rabat’s effort to attract foreign investment to realize its renewable energy potential, specifically by tapping into the country’s vast phosphate wealth.

ALGERIA: Algiers and Riyadh to launch $5.4 Billion Oil and Gas Project

Algerian Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab held talks with Saudi state-owned Midad. The discussions focused on officially launching a $5.4 billion contract signed between Midad and Algerian state-owned Sonatrach in October. The deal will see Midad finance oil and gas exploration in southern Algeria over the course of 30 years.

The agreement is part of Algeria’s effort to modernize its energy sector by utilizing foreign investment, particularly amid a tide of rising European demand. The GCC’s expertise in oil and gas, coupled with its close historical, cultural, and commercial ties to North Africa, has positioned the GCC as a key partner to Algeria.

NIGERIA: Abuja Draws $1.5 Billion from First Abu Dhabi Bank, Dangote Refinery Purchases Emirati Crude

Nigeria withdrew the first tranche of a $5 billion financing package from First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB). The tranche, worth $1.5 billion, aims to help Abuja address budget financing requirements and refinance higher-cost borrowings.

In parallel, the Dangote Refinery bought two cargoes of Emirati crude. The purchase comes in the aftermath of a meeting between Aliko Dangote and ADNOC Group CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber in Abu Dhabi.

As the UAE expands its African investments to the western region, Nigeria has emerged as its closest partner. Nigeria likewise views Emirati collaboration as a significant step toward both addressing fiscal challenges and bolstering its energy sector.

Share

Subscribe now

NIGERIA: Dangote Group and ADNOC Explore Strategic Collaboration

WHAT HAPPENED?

Aliko Dangote, head of the Dangote Group, met with Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Managing Director and Group CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), in Abu Dhabi. The meeting focused on exploring energy and industrial partnership opportunities between Dangote Group and ADNOC.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The UAE has increasingly expanded its African investment reach beyond just the Northeast region, with Nigeria becoming the core of its West African strategy. The recent meeting not only advances this strategy but also reflects the widening importance of Africa-Gulf partnerships, particularly in energy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Expect a round of new partnership deals between Dangote Group and ADNOC in the coming months, which could spur other Gulf states to follow suit.

SUDAN: Central Bank of Sudan Liquidates Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank’s Sudan Branch

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Central Bank of Sudan issued an administrative decision liquidating the Sudanese branch of Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB). The decision was made at the request of ADIB’s headquarters, due to limited economic viability in Sudan as a result of the war.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Sudan’s war has devastated the country’s foreign investment landscape. Despite recent mining deals with both Saudi Arabia and Qatar, ADIB’s liquidation signals how intertwined counterparty and FX risk remain in Khartoum.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Other Gulf banking institutions will continue to monitor the war in Sudan closely. As the conflict’s effects continue to spread to neighboring countries, such as Ethiopia, other institutions may follow in ADIB’s footsteps.

LIBYA: Libya Hits Highest Oil Production Since 2013

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced that crude oil production hit 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), approaching the NOC’s official target of 1.5 million bpd. It marks the highest level of production since 2013.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Libya’s oil rebound has increasingly positioned it as a key alternative source for energy buyers amid disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The result has been a spree of energy contracts with foreign companies, including Oman’s OQ Exploration and Production and QatarEnergy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The NOC’s announcement is likely to spur a further slate of oil deals as investor confidence rises, with Gulf energy companies among the most interested in partnering with Libya.

Share

Subscribe now

EGYPT: UAE’s Majid Al Futtaim Signs $3.1 Billion Cairo Mega Housing Project

WHAT HAPPENED?

Dubai-based Majid Al Futtaim Group signed a deal with Egypt’s Midar to develop a mixed-use complex in New Cairo’s Mada City. Currently worth $3.1 billion, the deal is expected to reach $4 billion upon completion.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The project adds to a wave of Gulf capital flowing into Egyptian real estate, following the 2024 $24 billion Ras El Hekma deal with Abu Dhabi-based ADQ. It also signals continued confidence in Egypt’s real estate market despite broader economic pressures, and reinforces Cairo’s status as a top regional investment destination for Gulf states.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Construction begins in phases, with the first 840,000 square meter stage–roughly 6,000 homes along with retail and hospitality space–set for completion within four years.

KENYA: US Strikes $62.4 Billion Rare Earth Deposit Deal

WHAT HAPPENED?

The US secured a preliminary agreement with Kenya for access to the Mrima Hill rare earth and niobium deposit, valued at $62.4 billion, with all minerals to be processed domestically rather than exported raw.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The deal marks a strategic win for Washington over Beijing, which dominates mineral processing across Africa. Additionally, the deal reflects a broader shift toward East African critical minerals, as new discoveries are made across the region.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Given the Gulf’s close commercial relations with East Africa, mining organizations in the GCC will aim to expand their presence to countries such as Kenya, which has seen a combined $990.5 billion in foreign investment from both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

ZAMBIA: Vedanta’s US IPO to Accelerate $2.7 Billion Zambia Copper Expansion

WHAT HAPPENED?

ZCCM Investment Holdings announced that Vedanta Resources’ planned American listing of its copper unit, CopperTech Metals, could accelerate the $2.7 billion Konkola Deep Mine project by about three years, completing by 2028.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The expansion is part of Zambia’s wider effort of tripling its national copper output to 3 million metric tons by 2031, driven by the skyrocketing global demand from EVs, renewables, and artificial intelligence.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Vedanta has already expanded its footprint to the GCC; in 2024, it signed a $2 billion investment deal with Saudi Arabia to build major copper processing facilities. Vedanta and the GCC may continue deepening their partnership via joint ventures in Zambia and other parts of Southern Africa.

Share

Subscribe now

NORTH AFRICA: Egypt Clears $6.1 Billion Energy Debt

WHAT HAPPENED?

Egypt announced it had paid off $6.1 billion in arrears owed to foreign energy companies.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Egypt holds roughly 93 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves, but its debt has left foreign oil firms wary of investing. Clearing the arrears should restore confidence as Egypt positions itself as a key gas supplier to Europe.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf energy companies will likely be among the first to invest in Cairo’s gas exploration and infrastructure.

EAST AFRICA: Sudan Scales Back Iranian Weapon Imports

WHAT HAPPENED?

Bloomberg reported the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), now in its fourth year of war against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), will reduce purchases of Iranian weapons.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Iranian drones, such as the Mohajer-6, are central to the SAF’s aerial arsenal in a conflict increasingly defined by drone warfare. But the reliance has strained Sudan’s ties with Middle East allies and the US; the SAF hopes distancing from Tehran will improve its standing in US-led peace talks.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Until a permanent ceasefire with Iran is secured, Washington’s priority will stay on the Gulf. Once finalized, the US will likely reengage with Sudan and assess its pivot away from Iran.

CENTRAL AFRICA: DRC Miners Attempt to Delay 5% Worker Equity Policy

WHAT HAPPENED?

A DRC directive requiring miners to hand a 5% stake to Congolese workers faces pushback from firms seeking to delay its July 31 deadline.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The DRC’s mineral wealth has drawn growing investment, including from the GCC. The rule is unlikely to deter investment, but will reshape cost calculations for companies operating in the market.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Ministry of Mines and unions meet today to discuss the directive. Gulf mining firms active in the region will watch closely as the policy develops.

WEST AFRICA: Nigeria Attracted $3 Billion in Solid Minerals in Three Years

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigeria’s Ministry of Solid Minerals announced the sector drew $3 billion in investment from 2023, concentrated in lithium, gold, and related minerals.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Abuja has worked to diversify its economy beyond oil; this record investment reflects those efforts. Foreign investors are likely to follow, pairing mining partnerships with Nigeria’s energy sector.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As Gulf countries, particularly the UAE, deepen ties with Nigeria, mining will likely become a cornerstone of cooperation.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Angola’s Sonangol Secures $2.65 Billion from First Abu Dhabi Bank and Others

WHAT HAPPENED?

Angola’s Sonangol raised $2.65 billion for operational expenditure and capital investment, pooled from foreign banks, including First Abu Dhabi Bank.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Angola is one of Africa’s leading energy exporters and a key partner for Europe’s energy diversification. The deal underscores Gulf capital’s growing role in African energy; Oman, for instance, launched its African Bank of Oman in Luanda to focus on Angola-Gulf energy deals.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As Angola’s energy sector grows, so will its reliance on Gulf capital to finance the growth.

Share

Subscribe now

Back in 2022, it felt like you couldn’t walk one step outside without hearing Rema’s “Calm Down.” Originally released in February of that year, it saw a resurgence when a remix featuring Selena Gomez dropped in August. Its presence was undeniable: it spent longer on the Billboard Hot 100 than any African song before it.

“Calm Down” was just one part of the wider Afrobeats tide sweeping the music world. A genre streamed over 13 billion times on Spotify that year, its biggest faces were selling out Wembley, headlining Coachella, and commanding performance fees north of a million dollars. Universal Music Group’s (UMG) majority stake in Lagos-based record label Mavin Global—valued at up to $200 million—made it feel like the genre’s momentum was unstoppable.

Yet recent numbers are beginning to paint a more bleak horizon. Between US charts for African artists declining and cancelled global tours by leading acts like Wizkid, it’s left analysts and fans alike asking: is Afrobeats’ era of fame over?

The Rise

Between 2021 and 2025, Afrobeats recorded a 5,022% increase in streams on Spotify alone, while Nigerian artists alone accumulated 30.3 billion streams and 1.6 billion listening hours on the platform in 2025.

Chart penetration in Western markets told a similar story: Wizkid and Tems’ “Essence” became the first Nigerian pop record to enter the Billboard Hot 100 in 2021, eventually peaking at number nine. The genre had become a category, not a curiosity.

The money followed. Warner Music Group (WMG) acquired pan-African distributor Africori in early 2025, while Sony had already launched Sony Music West Africa in 2016. The Big Three of music were planting flags wherever the streams went.

But the revenue engine sustaining the boom wasn’t streaming. Burna Boy’s I Told Them world tour generated $30.5 million across 22 shows, including $6.1 million from a single night at London Stadium. Wizkid’s Made in Lagos tour grossed over $25 million. Live performance was the business model, more than the digital playlists.

The reason is structural. Under Spotify’s payout system, the per-stream rate in Nigeria averages $0.0011, compared to $0.0039 in the US and $0.0044 in the UK. A subscription in Lagos costs ₦1,600 a month, about $1.17 at current rates. The math is punishing.

The Naira’s collapse has sharpened this asymmetry. The currency fell from roughly ₦460 to the dollar in early 2023 to between ₦1,600 and ₦1,830 by 2026. For established artists earning in dollars, that collapse multiplied their domestic purchasing power. For independent acts on local sponsorships and Naira-denominated fees, it has been quietly catastrophic, concentrating the genre’s financial rewards in a small pool of artists already established enough to earn in dollars.

The Fall?

At a recent listening party, Afrobeats icon Omah Lay made a stark claim: “Afrobeats is declining overseas, that’s a fact. The sound from 2020 to 2024 isn’t what it is today.”

The numbers reflect it. Global Afrobeats listener growth on Spotify came in at 22% in 2025, a far cry from the triple-digit expansion of earlier years. In 2025, Sony withdrew its entire catalog from Boomplay, the dominant African streaming platform, citing millions in unpaid royalties.

Meanwhile, an estimated $286 million in recorded music revenue goes uncollected in Nigeria and Kenya alone annually, the result of compositions never registered with global performance rights organizations. Coupled with cancelled global tours from the genre’s leading artists, it felt like Afrobeats was heading toward a downturn.

Yet beyond the Western markets showing fatigue, the genre’s growth elsewhere remains explosive. Spotify documented a 4,530% stream increase in Indonesia and 1,650% in India from 2020 to 2025. Moreover, Amapiano’s fusion with Afrobeats has opened markets in Latin America and Southeast Asia the original wave never reached.

What looks like decline in the Billboard charts may simply be the end of a crossover story. The genre has cemented itself as a permanent player on the global stage, rather than a passing moment.

From Lagos to Dubai

For most of Afrobeats’ expansion, the Gulf has been an audience rather than infrastructure. That’s changing.

Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority, Abu Dhabi’s festival investments, and Dubai’s emergence as a touring hub are becoming magnets for music talents and investments. It’s the same playbook the Gulf ran on sport: acquiring the infrastructure while at its cusp.

The timing is not coincidental. With Western markets saturating and African domestic revenues structurally constrained, Gulf markets represent one of the few remaining high-spend frontiers. The genre that began in Lagos, crossed over through London, and built its commercial model in North American arenas may find its next chapter shaped and increasingly owned in Riyadh and Dubai. That, more than any chart position, is the story worth watching.

Share

Subscribe now

NORTH AFRICA: Libya Secures Energy Deal with QatarEnergy and Others

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libya’s National Oil Corporation signed production-sharing agreements with QatarEnergy, Eni, Repsol, Türkiye Petrolleri, and MOL Group following the country’s first oil and gas licensing round since 2007.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The deals signal renewed international confidence in Libya’s upstream sector despite ongoing political divisions, as the country seeks to raise output from 1.4 million to 2 million barrels per day.

WHAT’S NEXT?

For the GCC, Libya’s newly awarded exploration blocks represent an early-mover opportunity in one of Africa’s most reserve-rich markets, though political risk due diligence remains essential before committing capital.

EAST AFRICA: Tanzania Unveils $23.8 Billion Budget for Next Year

WHAT HAPPENED?

Tanzania announced a $23.8 billion budget for 2026/27, a 10% spending increase, with roughly three-quarters funded through domestic revenue as foreign aid declines.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The shift reflects a broader East African trend away from donor dependence, with Tanzania betting on self-financed growth through infrastructure, healthcare, and education investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Tanzania’s infrastructure push opens concrete opportunities for Gulf partnerships in construction, energy, and logistics, viable entry points into one of East Africa’s most stable and fast-growing economies.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Equatorial Guinea’s Government Resigns

WHAT HAPPENED?

Equatorial Guinea’s Prime Minister Manuel Osa Nsue Nsua and his entire cabinet resigned on June 16, 2026, after the government achieved less than 10% of its performance targets, prompting a cabinet overhaul under Vice President Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Political reshuffles in small oil-dependent economies can shift procurement priorities and contract landscapes rapidly, creating both uncertainty and opportunity in the near term.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The cabinet reset signals a potential opening for new Gulf partnerships, provided that fresh infrastructure and development mandates are set up. Monitoring which sectors the incoming government prioritizes could reveal early entry points into Equatorial Guinea’s oil and public services markets.

WEST AFRICA: Starlink Arrives to Côte d’Ivoire

WHAT HAPPENED?

Starlink secured licenses to launch in Côte d’Ivoire by July 2026, marking the twenty-seventh African market as part of the service’s continent-wide expansion.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Satellite internet is bypassing Africa’s infrastructure gaps, unlocking connectivity for rural businesses, schools, and healthcare, accelerating digital economies that were previously too costly to reach.

WHAT’S NEXT?

For the GCC, already close backers of Starlink’s parent company, SpaceX, the service’s rollout signals growing demand for digital services, e-commerce, and fintech across underserved African markets.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Australia Widens Uranium Mining in Zambia

WHAT HAPPENED?

Australia’s Atomic Eagle expanded uranium mineralization at its Chisebuka deposit in Zambia, with drilling confirming significant high-grade zones and plans for large-scale mine development by late 2026.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As global nuclear energy demand rises, Zambia is emerging as a serious uranium frontier, attracting mining capital and signaling broader extractive sector growth in southern Africa.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Zambia’s expanding uranium build-out offers new entry opportunities for Gulf mining in Southern Africa, particularly as the GCC’s uranium demand rises.

Share

Subscribe now

First Mover, Frozen Out

Last Friday saw the market-changing move to end all market-changing moves. SpaceX officially went public, with its initial public offering (IPO) raising $75 billion, surging shares past $160 during its first day of trading on the Nasdaq.

The IPO catapulted SpaceX’s valuation to nearly $2 trillion and made Elon Musk history’s first trillionaire. A banker described the event as turning “fiction into fact” to the Financial Times.

The historic IPO has been a long time coming for SpaceX. Since its founding in 2002, the organization and its subsidiaries–most notably its satellite constellation service, Starlink–have continued to rapidly expand worldwide, with the IPO undertaken to raise the capital necessary to fuel this global growth.

That growing footprint can be found in every corner of the world, especially across the African continent, and it’s a footprint attracting its main competitor: Amazon’s Leo (formerly known as Project Kuiper).

Officially arriving on the African continent in 2023 with Nigeria, Starlink has since launched service in 27 countries, servicing approximately 275,000 subscribers.

Throughout, Starlink has struck strategic partnerships with leading telecom organizations, such as Airtel Africa, Vodacom, and Jumia, enabling wider consumer access to its satellite network.

The result has propelled Starlink’s coverage. Following its entry into Kenya in July 2023, the company reported a 14.4% quarterly growth rate, reaching 22,282 active subscribers by December 2025.

Likewise, in Rwanda, Starlink reached 4,503 active subscriptions by March 2025, two years after it began servicing the country, a growth largely attributed to state-backed programs connecting 500 rural schools.

Leo is late to the party. In February of this year, Amazon announced it would be teaming up with Vanu, a telecom provider servicing rural areas, to deliver high-quality internet across Southern Africa, with a particular focus on South Africa.

The choice of South Africa is far from a coincidence. Despite Musk being from the country, Starlink has faced one regulatory struggle after another in setting up shop there. South Africa’s Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policy mandates a minimum 30% ownership in telecommunications companies by Historically Disadvantaged Persons. That policy has become a regulatory bone of contention with Musk, who has refused to give up equity.

For Starlink, it’s a sticking point; for Leo, it’s an entry point. And while South Africa is just the beginning for Amazon.

Leo secured a seven-year permit from Nigeria to deploy satellite constellations covering three service categories: fixed satellite services (FSS) for homes and offices; mobile satellite services (MSS) for aviation and maritime connectivity; and earth stations in motion (ESIM) for vehicles, ships, and aircraft. That’s a far cry from Starlink, which only provides FSS.

Just last week, Amazon applied for an operator license in Kenya to construct a satellite ground station, connecting its low-Earth-orbit network to terrestrial internet infrastructure in the East African country, opening the gateway to service the continent’s most populous region.

Gulf Money Is Watching

The IPO of SpaceX wasn’t just being watched closely by hedge fund managers or investment bankers in New York. Investors and policymakers across the Gulf had fixed a keen eye on it.

Bloomberg reported that sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were investing up to $5 billion in SpaceX back when the company was valued at approximately $45 billion.

The expansion of Starlink across the continent is equally widening the Gulf’s investment reach. While Gulf foreign investment in Africa has typically centered around energy and its adjacent sectors, Starlink’s entrance into the telecommunications market–fueled in part by GCC money–will also help cement the region’s foothold in the African telecommunications sphere.

The expansion of Leo acts as a hedge against Starlink, particularly as it faces regulatory hurdles in countries like South Africa. With Gulf partnerships with Leo’s parent company Amazon already established, GCC SWFs are poised to expand their telecom reach deep into the continent through further investments in Leo.

In this regard, the telecom rivalry between SpaceX and Amazon in Africa goes far beyond who can provide the widest and strongest coverage. The IPO and Leo’s efforts to catch up are converging into a source of geopolitical influence, a leverage that goes well beyond the numbers on a trading terminal.

Subscribe now

NORTH AFRICA: Libya Sees Rising Oil Income

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libya’s NOC reported oil income rising to $3.4 billion in May, up from $1.7 billion in January and February, driven by surging prices amid the Iran crisis.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Libya’s energy sector is attracting increased foreign buyers as Gulf supplies tighten, pushing countries like Italy and Germany to seek alternatives.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Export terminals and oil fields remain underdeveloped; Gulf investment could help upgrade infrastructure and boost exports.

EAST AFRICA: Sudanese Pound Rebounds on Parallel Market

WHAT HAPPENED?

After hitting a record low of 4,700 pounds to the dollar, the Sudanese pound rebounded following the central bank and government’s decision to take over petroleum product imports.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Key infrastructure like the al-Jaili refinery has gone largely inactive amid the war, and the Iran crisis has intensified energy pressure, accelerating Sudan’s food crisis.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With Saudi Arabia and Qatar eyeing a return to the Sudanese market, organizations will watch closely to see if the economic situation stabilizes, shaping their investment strategies.

CENTRAL AFRICA: DR Congo Urges Release of Mineral Mapping Documents

WHAT HAPPENED?

Congo’s Minister of Mines met with Belgian and EU officials to discuss digitizing mineral deposit maps held at Belgium’s Royal Museum for Central Africa.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The DRC is a centerpiece of the ongoing race for critical minerals, rich in cobalt and copper. Its efforts are conducted alongside Bill Gates-backed KoBold Metals, reflecting a broader trend of AI-driven mineral tracking.

WHAT’S NEXT?

A joint digitization framework was agreed upon. For Gulf mining organizations operating in the DRC, access to these records could unlock new market opportunities.

WEST AFRICA: Dangote Refinery Valued at $39.1 Billion

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery has been valued at $39.1 billion through a private placement seeking to raise roughly $1 billion ahead of a public listing.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As Gulf oil supplies tighten, European demand for Dangote’s capacity has surged. The fundraising effort has reportedly attracted over $2 billion in demand, underscoring strong investor interest.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With the UAE deepening commercial ties with Nigeria, GCC investors may emerge as key players in the private placement.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: IMF Devising Debt Relief Strategies for Mozambique

WHAT HAPPENED?

The IMF completed a week-long mission to Mozambique, finding that despite gradual recovery, the country faces significant financial hurdles, particularly high debt levels.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Mozambique is emerging as a global hub for floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG), with Qatar alone committing $20 billion. A prolonged debt crisis risks dampening Gulf investor confidence.

WHAT’S NEXT?

GCC states will monitor Mozambique’s IMF collaboration closely to determine their own market entry strategies in Maputo.