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NIGERIA: Dangote Group and ADNOC Explore Strategic Collaboration

WHAT HAPPENED?

Aliko Dangote, head of the Dangote Group, met with Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Managing Director and Group CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), in Abu Dhabi. The meeting focused on exploring energy and industrial partnership opportunities between Dangote Group and ADNOC.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The UAE has increasingly expanded its African investment reach beyond just the Northeast region, with Nigeria becoming the core of its West African strategy. The recent meeting not only advances this strategy but also reflects the widening importance of Africa-Gulf partnerships, particularly in energy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Expect a round of new partnership deals between Dangote Group and ADNOC in the coming months, which could spur other Gulf states to follow suit.

SUDAN: Central Bank of Sudan Liquidates Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank’s Sudan Branch

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Central Bank of Sudan issued an administrative decision liquidating the Sudanese branch of Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB). The decision was made at the request of ADIB’s headquarters, due to limited economic viability in Sudan as a result of the war.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Sudan’s war has devastated the country’s foreign investment landscape. Despite recent mining deals with both Saudi Arabia and Qatar, ADIB’s liquidation signals how intertwined counterparty and FX risk remain in Khartoum.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Other Gulf banking institutions will continue to monitor the war in Sudan closely. As the conflict’s effects continue to spread to neighboring countries, such as Ethiopia, other institutions may follow in ADIB’s footsteps.

LIBYA: Libya Hits Highest Oil Production Since 2013

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced that crude oil production hit 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), approaching the NOC’s official target of 1.5 million bpd. It marks the highest level of production since 2013.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Libya’s oil rebound has increasingly positioned it as a key alternative source for energy buyers amid disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The result has been a spree of energy contracts with foreign companies, including Oman’s OQ Exploration and Production and QatarEnergy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The NOC’s announcement is likely to spur a further slate of oil deals as investor confidence rises, with Gulf energy companies among the most interested in partnering with Libya.

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EGYPT: UAE’s Majid Al Futtaim Signs $3.1 Billion Cairo Mega Housing Project

WHAT HAPPENED?

Dubai-based Majid Al Futtaim Group signed a deal with Egypt’s Midar to develop a mixed-use complex in New Cairo’s Mada City. Currently worth $3.1 billion, the deal is expected to reach $4 billion upon completion.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The project adds to a wave of Gulf capital flowing into Egyptian real estate, following the 2024 $24 billion Ras El Hekma deal with Abu Dhabi-based ADQ. It also signals continued confidence in Egypt’s real estate market despite broader economic pressures, and reinforces Cairo’s status as a top regional investment destination for Gulf states.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Construction begins in phases, with the first 840,000 square meter stage–roughly 6,000 homes along with retail and hospitality space–set for completion within four years.

KENYA: US Strikes $62.4 Billion Rare Earth Deposit Deal

WHAT HAPPENED?

The US secured a preliminary agreement with Kenya for access to the Mrima Hill rare earth and niobium deposit, valued at $62.4 billion, with all minerals to be processed domestically rather than exported raw.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The deal marks a strategic win for Washington over Beijing, which dominates mineral processing across Africa. Additionally, the deal reflects a broader shift toward East African critical minerals, as new discoveries are made across the region.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Given the Gulf’s close commercial relations with East Africa, mining organizations in the GCC will aim to expand their presence to countries such as Kenya, which has seen a combined $990.5 billion in foreign investment from both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

ZAMBIA: Vedanta’s US IPO to Accelerate $2.7 Billion Zambia Copper Expansion

WHAT HAPPENED?

ZCCM Investment Holdings announced that Vedanta Resources’ planned American listing of its copper unit, CopperTech Metals, could accelerate the $2.7 billion Konkola Deep Mine project by about three years, completing by 2028.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The expansion is part of Zambia’s wider effort of tripling its national copper output to 3 million metric tons by 2031, driven by the skyrocketing global demand from EVs, renewables, and artificial intelligence.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Vedanta has already expanded its footprint to the GCC; in 2024, it signed a $2 billion investment deal with Saudi Arabia to build major copper processing facilities. Vedanta and the GCC may continue deepening their partnership via joint ventures in Zambia and other parts of Southern Africa.

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NORTH AFRICA: Egypt Clears $6.1 Billion Energy Debt

WHAT HAPPENED?

Egypt announced it had paid off $6.1 billion in arrears owed to foreign energy companies.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Egypt holds roughly 93 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves, but its debt has left foreign oil firms wary of investing. Clearing the arrears should restore confidence as Egypt positions itself as a key gas supplier to Europe.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf energy companies will likely be among the first to invest in Cairo’s gas exploration and infrastructure.

EAST AFRICA: Sudan Scales Back Iranian Weapon Imports

WHAT HAPPENED?

Bloomberg reported the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), now in its fourth year of war against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), will reduce purchases of Iranian weapons.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Iranian drones, such as the Mohajer-6, are central to the SAF’s aerial arsenal in a conflict increasingly defined by drone warfare. But the reliance has strained Sudan’s ties with Middle East allies and the US; the SAF hopes distancing from Tehran will improve its standing in US-led peace talks.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Until a permanent ceasefire with Iran is secured, Washington’s priority will stay on the Gulf. Once finalized, the US will likely reengage with Sudan and assess its pivot away from Iran.

CENTRAL AFRICA: DRC Miners Attempt to Delay 5% Worker Equity Policy

WHAT HAPPENED?

A DRC directive requiring miners to hand a 5% stake to Congolese workers faces pushback from firms seeking to delay its July 31 deadline.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The DRC’s mineral wealth has drawn growing investment, including from the GCC. The rule is unlikely to deter investment, but will reshape cost calculations for companies operating in the market.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Ministry of Mines and unions meet today to discuss the directive. Gulf mining firms active in the region will watch closely as the policy develops.

WEST AFRICA: Nigeria Attracted $3 Billion in Solid Minerals in Three Years

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigeria’s Ministry of Solid Minerals announced the sector drew $3 billion in investment from 2023, concentrated in lithium, gold, and related minerals.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Abuja has worked to diversify its economy beyond oil; this record investment reflects those efforts. Foreign investors are likely to follow, pairing mining partnerships with Nigeria’s energy sector.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As Gulf countries, particularly the UAE, deepen ties with Nigeria, mining will likely become a cornerstone of cooperation.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Angola’s Sonangol Secures $2.65 Billion from First Abu Dhabi Bank and Others

WHAT HAPPENED?

Angola’s Sonangol raised $2.65 billion for operational expenditure and capital investment, pooled from foreign banks, including First Abu Dhabi Bank.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Angola is one of Africa’s leading energy exporters and a key partner for Europe’s energy diversification. The deal underscores Gulf capital’s growing role in African energy; Oman, for instance, launched its African Bank of Oman in Luanda to focus on Angola-Gulf energy deals.

WHAT’S NEXT?

As Angola’s energy sector grows, so will its reliance on Gulf capital to finance the growth.

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Back in 2022, it felt like you couldn’t walk one step outside without hearing Rema’s “Calm Down.” Originally released in February of that year, it saw a resurgence when a remix featuring Selena Gomez dropped in August. Its presence was undeniable: it spent longer on the Billboard Hot 100 than any African song before it.

“Calm Down” was just one part of the wider Afrobeats tide sweeping the music world. A genre streamed over 13 billion times on Spotify that year, its biggest faces were selling out Wembley, headlining Coachella, and commanding performance fees north of a million dollars. Universal Music Group’s (UMG) majority stake in Lagos-based record label Mavin Global—valued at up to $200 million—made it feel like the genre’s momentum was unstoppable.

Yet recent numbers are beginning to paint a more bleak horizon. Between US charts for African artists declining and cancelled global tours by leading acts like Wizkid, it’s left analysts and fans alike asking: is Afrobeats’ era of fame over?

The Rise

Between 2021 and 2025, Afrobeats recorded a 5,022% increase in streams on Spotify alone, while Nigerian artists alone accumulated 30.3 billion streams and 1.6 billion listening hours on the platform in 2025.

Chart penetration in Western markets told a similar story: Wizkid and Tems’ “Essence” became the first Nigerian pop record to enter the Billboard Hot 100 in 2021, eventually peaking at number nine. The genre had become a category, not a curiosity.

The money followed. Warner Music Group (WMG) acquired pan-African distributor Africori in early 2025, while Sony had already launched Sony Music West Africa in 2016. The Big Three of music were planting flags wherever the streams went.

But the revenue engine sustaining the boom wasn’t streaming. Burna Boy’s I Told Them world tour generated $30.5 million across 22 shows, including $6.1 million from a single night at London Stadium. Wizkid’s Made in Lagos tour grossed over $25 million. Live performance was the business model, more than the digital playlists.

The reason is structural. Under Spotify’s payout system, the per-stream rate in Nigeria averages $0.0011, compared to $0.0039 in the US and $0.0044 in the UK. A subscription in Lagos costs ₦1,600 a month, about $1.17 at current rates. The math is punishing.

The Naira’s collapse has sharpened this asymmetry. The currency fell from roughly ₦460 to the dollar in early 2023 to between ₦1,600 and ₦1,830 by 2026. For established artists earning in dollars, that collapse multiplied their domestic purchasing power. For independent acts on local sponsorships and Naira-denominated fees, it has been quietly catastrophic, concentrating the genre’s financial rewards in a small pool of artists already established enough to earn in dollars.

The Fall?

At a recent listening party, Afrobeats icon Omah Lay made a stark claim: “Afrobeats is declining overseas, that’s a fact. The sound from 2020 to 2024 isn’t what it is today.”

The numbers reflect it. Global Afrobeats listener growth on Spotify came in at 22% in 2025, a far cry from the triple-digit expansion of earlier years. In 2025, Sony withdrew its entire catalog from Boomplay, the dominant African streaming platform, citing millions in unpaid royalties.

Meanwhile, an estimated $286 million in recorded music revenue goes uncollected in Nigeria and Kenya alone annually, the result of compositions never registered with global performance rights organizations. Coupled with cancelled global tours from the genre’s leading artists, it felt like Afrobeats was heading toward a downturn.

Yet beyond the Western markets showing fatigue, the genre’s growth elsewhere remains explosive. Spotify documented a 4,530% stream increase in Indonesia and 1,650% in India from 2020 to 2025. Moreover, Amapiano’s fusion with Afrobeats has opened markets in Latin America and Southeast Asia the original wave never reached.

What looks like decline in the Billboard charts may simply be the end of a crossover story. The genre has cemented itself as a permanent player on the global stage, rather than a passing moment.

From Lagos to Dubai

For most of Afrobeats’ expansion, the Gulf has been an audience rather than infrastructure. That’s changing.

Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority, Abu Dhabi’s festival investments, and Dubai’s emergence as a touring hub are becoming magnets for music talents and investments. It’s the same playbook the Gulf ran on sport: acquiring the infrastructure while at its cusp.

The timing is not coincidental. With Western markets saturating and African domestic revenues structurally constrained, Gulf markets represent one of the few remaining high-spend frontiers. The genre that began in Lagos, crossed over through London, and built its commercial model in North American arenas may find its next chapter shaped and increasingly owned in Riyadh and Dubai. That, more than any chart position, is the story worth watching.

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NORTH AFRICA: Libya Secures Energy Deal with QatarEnergy and Others

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libya’s National Oil Corporation signed production-sharing agreements with QatarEnergy, Eni, Repsol, Türkiye Petrolleri, and MOL Group following the country’s first oil and gas licensing round since 2007.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The deals signal renewed international confidence in Libya’s upstream sector despite ongoing political divisions, as the country seeks to raise output from 1.4 million to 2 million barrels per day.

WHAT’S NEXT?

For the GCC, Libya’s newly awarded exploration blocks represent an early-mover opportunity in one of Africa’s most reserve-rich markets, though political risk due diligence remains essential before committing capital.

EAST AFRICA: Tanzania Unveils $23.8 Billion Budget for Next Year

WHAT HAPPENED?

Tanzania announced a $23.8 billion budget for 2026/27, a 10% spending increase, with roughly three-quarters funded through domestic revenue as foreign aid declines.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The shift reflects a broader East African trend away from donor dependence, with Tanzania betting on self-financed growth through infrastructure, healthcare, and education investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Tanzania’s infrastructure push opens concrete opportunities for Gulf partnerships in construction, energy, and logistics, viable entry points into one of East Africa’s most stable and fast-growing economies.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Equatorial Guinea’s Government Resigns

WHAT HAPPENED?

Equatorial Guinea’s Prime Minister Manuel Osa Nsue Nsua and his entire cabinet resigned on June 16, 2026, after the government achieved less than 10% of its performance targets, prompting a cabinet overhaul under Vice President Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Political reshuffles in small oil-dependent economies can shift procurement priorities and contract landscapes rapidly, creating both uncertainty and opportunity in the near term.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The cabinet reset signals a potential opening for new Gulf partnerships, provided that fresh infrastructure and development mandates are set up. Monitoring which sectors the incoming government prioritizes could reveal early entry points into Equatorial Guinea’s oil and public services markets.

WEST AFRICA: Starlink Arrives to Côte d’Ivoire

WHAT HAPPENED?

Starlink secured licenses to launch in Côte d’Ivoire by July 2026, marking the twenty-seventh African market as part of the service’s continent-wide expansion.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Satellite internet is bypassing Africa’s infrastructure gaps, unlocking connectivity for rural businesses, schools, and healthcare, accelerating digital economies that were previously too costly to reach.

WHAT’S NEXT?

For the GCC, already close backers of Starlink’s parent company, SpaceX, the service’s rollout signals growing demand for digital services, e-commerce, and fintech across underserved African markets.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Australia Widens Uranium Mining in Zambia

WHAT HAPPENED?

Australia’s Atomic Eagle expanded uranium mineralization at its Chisebuka deposit in Zambia, with drilling confirming significant high-grade zones and plans for large-scale mine development by late 2026.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As global nuclear energy demand rises, Zambia is emerging as a serious uranium frontier, attracting mining capital and signaling broader extractive sector growth in southern Africa.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Zambia’s expanding uranium build-out offers new entry opportunities for Gulf mining in Southern Africa, particularly as the GCC’s uranium demand rises.

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First Mover, Frozen Out

Last Friday saw the market-changing move to end all market-changing moves. SpaceX officially went public, with its initial public offering (IPO) raising $75 billion, surging shares past $160 during its first day of trading on the Nasdaq.

The IPO catapulted SpaceX’s valuation to nearly $2 trillion and made Elon Musk history’s first trillionaire. A banker described the event as turning “fiction into fact” to the Financial Times.

The historic IPO has been a long time coming for SpaceX. Since its founding in 2002, the organization and its subsidiaries–most notably its satellite constellation service, Starlink–have continued to rapidly expand worldwide, with the IPO undertaken to raise the capital necessary to fuel this global growth.

That growing footprint can be found in every corner of the world, especially across the African continent, and it’s a footprint attracting its main competitor: Amazon’s Leo (formerly known as Project Kuiper).

Officially arriving on the African continent in 2023 with Nigeria, Starlink has since launched service in 27 countries, servicing approximately 275,000 subscribers.

Throughout, Starlink has struck strategic partnerships with leading telecom organizations, such as Airtel Africa, Vodacom, and Jumia, enabling wider consumer access to its satellite network.

The result has propelled Starlink’s coverage. Following its entry into Kenya in July 2023, the company reported a 14.4% quarterly growth rate, reaching 22,282 active subscribers by December 2025.

Likewise, in Rwanda, Starlink reached 4,503 active subscriptions by March 2025, two years after it began servicing the country, a growth largely attributed to state-backed programs connecting 500 rural schools.

Leo is late to the party. In February of this year, Amazon announced it would be teaming up with Vanu, a telecom provider servicing rural areas, to deliver high-quality internet across Southern Africa, with a particular focus on South Africa.

The choice of South Africa is far from a coincidence. Despite Musk being from the country, Starlink has faced one regulatory struggle after another in setting up shop there. South Africa’s Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policy mandates a minimum 30% ownership in telecommunications companies by Historically Disadvantaged Persons. That policy has become a regulatory bone of contention with Musk, who has refused to give up equity.

For Starlink, it’s a sticking point; for Leo, it’s an entry point. And while South Africa is just the beginning for Amazon.

Leo secured a seven-year permit from Nigeria to deploy satellite constellations covering three service categories: fixed satellite services (FSS) for homes and offices; mobile satellite services (MSS) for aviation and maritime connectivity; and earth stations in motion (ESIM) for vehicles, ships, and aircraft. That’s a far cry from Starlink, which only provides FSS.

Just last week, Amazon applied for an operator license in Kenya to construct a satellite ground station, connecting its low-Earth-orbit network to terrestrial internet infrastructure in the East African country, opening the gateway to service the continent’s most populous region.

Gulf Money Is Watching

The IPO of SpaceX wasn’t just being watched closely by hedge fund managers or investment bankers in New York. Investors and policymakers across the Gulf had fixed a keen eye on it.

Bloomberg reported that sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were investing up to $5 billion in SpaceX back when the company was valued at approximately $45 billion.

The expansion of Starlink across the continent is equally widening the Gulf’s investment reach. While Gulf foreign investment in Africa has typically centered around energy and its adjacent sectors, Starlink’s entrance into the telecommunications market–fueled in part by GCC money–will also help cement the region’s foothold in the African telecommunications sphere.

The expansion of Leo acts as a hedge against Starlink, particularly as it faces regulatory hurdles in countries like South Africa. With Gulf partnerships with Leo’s parent company Amazon already established, GCC SWFs are poised to expand their telecom reach deep into the continent through further investments in Leo.

In this regard, the telecom rivalry between SpaceX and Amazon in Africa goes far beyond who can provide the widest and strongest coverage. The IPO and Leo’s efforts to catch up are converging into a source of geopolitical influence, a leverage that goes well beyond the numbers on a trading terminal.

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NORTH AFRICA: Libya Sees Rising Oil Income

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libya’s NOC reported oil income rising to $3.4 billion in May, up from $1.7 billion in January and February, driven by surging prices amid the Iran crisis.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Libya’s energy sector is attracting increased foreign buyers as Gulf supplies tighten, pushing countries like Italy and Germany to seek alternatives.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Export terminals and oil fields remain underdeveloped; Gulf investment could help upgrade infrastructure and boost exports.

EAST AFRICA: Sudanese Pound Rebounds on Parallel Market

WHAT HAPPENED?

After hitting a record low of 4,700 pounds to the dollar, the Sudanese pound rebounded following the central bank and government’s decision to take over petroleum product imports.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Key infrastructure like the al-Jaili refinery has gone largely inactive amid the war, and the Iran crisis has intensified energy pressure, accelerating Sudan’s food crisis.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With Saudi Arabia and Qatar eyeing a return to the Sudanese market, organizations will watch closely to see if the economic situation stabilizes, shaping their investment strategies.

CENTRAL AFRICA: DR Congo Urges Release of Mineral Mapping Documents

WHAT HAPPENED?

Congo’s Minister of Mines met with Belgian and EU officials to discuss digitizing mineral deposit maps held at Belgium’s Royal Museum for Central Africa.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The DRC is a centerpiece of the ongoing race for critical minerals, rich in cobalt and copper. Its efforts are conducted alongside Bill Gates-backed KoBold Metals, reflecting a broader trend of AI-driven mineral tracking.

WHAT’S NEXT?

A joint digitization framework was agreed upon. For Gulf mining organizations operating in the DRC, access to these records could unlock new market opportunities.

WEST AFRICA: Dangote Refinery Valued at $39.1 Billion

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery has been valued at $39.1 billion through a private placement seeking to raise roughly $1 billion ahead of a public listing.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As Gulf oil supplies tighten, European demand for Dangote’s capacity has surged. The fundraising effort has reportedly attracted over $2 billion in demand, underscoring strong investor interest.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With the UAE deepening commercial ties with Nigeria, GCC investors may emerge as key players in the private placement.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: IMF Devising Debt Relief Strategies for Mozambique

WHAT HAPPENED?

The IMF completed a week-long mission to Mozambique, finding that despite gradual recovery, the country faces significant financial hurdles, particularly high debt levels.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Mozambique is emerging as a global hub for floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG), with Qatar alone committing $20 billion. A prolonged debt crisis risks dampening Gulf investor confidence.

WHAT’S NEXT?

GCC states will monitor Mozambique’s IMF collaboration closely to determine their own market entry strategies in Maputo.

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NORTH AFRICA: Egypt Suez Canal Traffic Surges

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Suez Canal experienced an increase in the number of oil tankers in April, up 14% from the same period last year, attributed to shipping companies traversing away from the Strait of Hormuz.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Suez Canal represents one of the most strategically important maritime trade routes and a critical revenue stream for Egypt, serving as a cushion for the country’s ongoing economic stresses.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Shipping companies are likely to remain uncertain even if a ceasefire with Iran is secured; Tehran has also signaled its intent to exert control over the Hormuz long-term, driving more maritime profits to Cairo.

EAST AFRICA: Ethiopia spending to rise next fiscal year

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ethiopian Finance Minister Ahmed Shide announced that overall spending will rise in the 2026/27 fiscal year from 1.92 trillion birr ($12.92 billion) to roughly 2.34 trillion birr ($14.69 billion), attributed to the ripple effects of the Iran war.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Ethiopia remains a cornerstone for Gulf investments in East Africa; sustained fiscal pressure may deter further GCC collaboration.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Ethiopia is likely to accelerate its ongoing bond restructuring efforts to limit further fiscal pressure.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Chinese Cobalt Production Plummets

WHAT HAPPENED?

Financial Times reported a fall in cobalt metal production by China since the beginning of last year, dropping from over 80% refining capacity utilization to under 20%, attributed to export curbs on mined cobalt hydroxide by the Democratic Republic of Congo.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Cobalt hydroxide remains fundamental to modern technologies such as batteries; limited supply coupled with soaring input costs will likely drive rising end-product prices.

WHAT’S NEXT?

For Gulf mining organizations, China’s production fall represents an opportunity to deepen its mining foothold, but also serves as a warning sign for market entry.

WEST AFRICA: IMF Cautions of $5 Billion Nigeria-UAE Derivatives Agreement

WHAT HAPPENED?

The IMF has alerted Nigeria against its derivatives agreement with First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), under which FAB will lend Nigeria $5 billion to cut borrowing costs, citing transparency concerns.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Nigeria is emerging as the critical node in the UAE’s growing West African commercial footprint. A pivot away could decelerate the Emirates’ strategy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Although the IMF has argued for Nigeria to issue eurobonds instead, Abuja is likely to proceed with the agreement following its Senate approval in April.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Zambia Obtains Bondholder Backing for $1.36 Billion Eurobond

WHAT HAPPENED?

Zambia has passed the 75% participation mark needed to repurchase its $1.36 billion Eurobond, made possible in part by a $600 million loan from the African Development Bank.

WHY IT MATTERS?

After defaulting on sovereign debt in 2020, this effort marks a significant acceleration in Zambia’s debt restructuring and could act as a model for other African states such as Ethiopia.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The move will reduce uncertainty for Gulf investors looking to partner with Zambia, particularly in its copper-rich mining sector.

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Four thousand years before the first foundation was poured in the New Administrative Capital, Egypt was already in the business of building at a scale the world had never seen. The pyramids of Giza were the original statement of what the pharaohs understood: that stone, sand, and sovereign ambition combined produce something that outlasts everything else.

That’s a lesson Gulf sovereign wealth funds are now rediscovering.

Egypt’s real estate market is experiencing a significant boom: currently valued at $1.62 trillion and expected to rise to $1.98 trillion by 2030, according to Statista. And while this upsurge has been a long time coming, 2024 marked a turning point, spurred in significant part by foreign investment.

That February, UAE-based ADQ secured development rights over Ras El-Hekma–an emerging smart city under construction on Egypt’s Mediterranean North Coast–for $24 billion. The agreement was one of several that helped lift Egypt’s net foreign direct investment (FDI) from $9.8 billion in 2023 to $46.1 billion in 2024, with approximately 76% concentrated in real estate.

With Egypt’s population rising rapidly and its tourism sector expanding, what role has the GCC played in the country’s burgeoning real estate market, and what comes next?

The Gulf’s Growing Footprint in Egyptian Property

Having recently ranked sixth on Business Insider Africa‘s list of the top ten best-performing African economies, Egypt has attracted a substantial surge of foreign investment this decade, from $5.9 billion in 2020 to an estimated $11 billion in 2025.

And while that FDI has been cross-sectoral, Egypt’s housing market remains a focal point. Between September 2021 and September 2025, quarterly net real estate services FDI averaged $312.50 million. That momentum was accelerated by Egypt’s exchange rate unification in 2024, enabling real estate services FDI to reach a quarterly peak of $852 million in March 2025.

The Gulf has been a primary driver of that growth. Official figures from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) show that in FY 2023/24, the UAE alone accounted for 68.7% of total inward FDI flows to Egypt, largely driven by the Ras El-Hekma deal. Egypt’s largest real estate development group, Talaat Moustafa Group (TMG), has similarly recorded a growing commercial presence from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, while Qatari capital has aggressively re-entered the market through sovereign-backed subsidiaries.

Gulf involvement in Egyptian real estate extends well beyond the ADQ deal. CityGate, an in-progress sustainable city backed by Qatari Diar, covers over 90 million square feet and encompasses 300 residential units, with a projected value exceeding $12 billion. The development is estimated to generate over 200,000 direct and indirect jobs upon completion. Projects of this scale have contributed to TMG recording approximately $10 billion in total real estate sales in 2024, a 3.5-fold increase from $2.7 billion in 2023.

Maged Salah, managing director at real estate investment firm Misr Abu Dhabi, told Arabian Gulf Business Insight that Cairo’s streamlined approvals process has enabled “faster approvals and more transparent regulations” for incoming investors.

It’s this updated regulatory framework, according to AGBI, that has helped fuel the rise of branded residences, luxury homes affiliated with hotel or lifestyle brands, such as the Ritz-Carlton. According to Knight Frank’s Destination Egypt 2025 report, 81% of Gulf buyers expressed interest in such properties.

For Gulf enterprises, investors, and individual buyers alike, Egypt’s appeal is reinforced by its cost competitiveness. Occupancy costs for Class A office space average $723 per square meter, a fraction of the $1,603 recorded in Dubai or $1,561 in Riyadh. That gap is enough of an incentive for GCC firms considering establishing regional operations in Egypt.

A Market With More Room to Build

While 2024 marked a record high for Egypt’s real estate sector, the same year saw only 25% of hospitality projects originally scheduled to open actually reach completion. For Gulf investors, Cairo’s undeniable property potential still has considerable ground to cover before it’s fully realized.

The disconnect between the high-end, luxury developments favored by GCC developers and the purchasing power of Egypt’s domestic population also risks slowing progress. The secondary education sector–closely tied to mixed-use luxury residential developments–illustrates the tension clearly: more than 182 new private schools entered the Greater Cairo market in 2024/25, yet only 7% of local households can afford annual tuition fees exceeding EGP 65,000. Premium supply is outpacing domestic affordability, and that gap cannot be bridged by foreign capital alone.

The pressing matter for Gulf investors today is whether the foundations being laid now are broad enough to support what comes next. If the gap between luxury supply and local demand narrows, and project delivery catches up with ambition, Egypt’s real estate story may prove as durable as the monuments that started it.

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NORTH AFRICA: Morocco Seeks $540 Million Bond for Green Energy Expansion

WHAT HAPPENED?

Office Chérifien des Phosphates (OCP) Group, a Moroccan-state owned phosphate producer, is raising a bond worth MAD 5 billion ($540 million) to invest in new green energy projects.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Morocco holds roughly 70% of the world’s supply of phosphate, a tool increasingly important for both food security and emerging technologies. The Kingdom hopes to cultivate this resource wealth into a more profitable revenue stream.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Investors in the Gulf states may offer financing support in exchange for higher phosphate imports, as they aim to strengthen their food security.

EAST AFRICA: M-Pesa Integrating Blockchain Payments with UAE Backing

WHAT HAPPENED?

M-Pesa Africa, one of the continent’s leading money transfer services based in Nairobi, will incorporate blockchain infrastructure into its platform in collaboration with Abu Dhabi-based ADI Foundation.

WHY IT MATTERS?

M-Pesa remains heavily dependent on banks and correspondent networks across several markets, delaying transactions. Blockchain deployment can accelerate such exchanges.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The ADI partnership reflects a wider UAE trend of deploying blockchain into existing transactions. Abu Dhabi may be signaling its intent to expand that deployment beyond its borders.

CENTRAL AFRICA: CMOC Offers Bonus Package to End Workers’ Strike

WHAT HAPPENED?

CMOC Group Limited, a Chinese mining company overseeing the Tenke Fungureme Mine (TFM) in Kinshasa, has proposed a bonus package to workers to end an ongoing strike.

WHY IT MATTERS?

TFM is one of the most lucrative copper and cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Sustained strikes could delay key mining operations and reduce regional copper-cobalt supply.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf mining organizations expanding in the DRC will closely watch CMOC’s response to inform their own strategies when facing workers’ strikes.

WEST AFRICA: Nigeria Stock Market Falls $3.6 Billion

WHAT HAPPENED?

After months of strong performance, the Nigerian stock market closed its first trading week in June in the negative. A surge of profit-taking cleared N4.9 trillion ($3.6 billion) from the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX).

WHY IT MATTERS?

The NGX is Africa’s highest growth stock market, having recently overtaken Morocco to become the continent’s second largest. The rapid selloff may increase uncertainty for foreign investors in the Gulf.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With GCC countries bridging closer ties with Nigeria and Aliko Dangote intending to list his refinery on the market, investors will watch whether NGX’s rapid growth is met with sustained volatility.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Mozambique Scores $1 Billion FLNG Contract

WHAT HAPPENED?

Mozambique Rovuma Venture (MRV) will collaborate with French Technip Energies on the Coral Norte floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) project, worth $1.14 billion.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Mozambique holds some of the world’s largest LNG reserves, with Coral Norte expected to produce 3.6 million tonnes annually. The global shift toward FLNG has accelerated energy investment in the country.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf energy investors and SMEs may increasingly engage with Mozambique as part of this trend, including through infrastructure support or securing a stake in MRV.

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The upcoming 2026 World Cup will mark a historic first for the African continent. 10 countries—Algeria, Cabo Verde, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast), Egypt, Ghana, Morocco, Senegal, South Africa, and Tunisia—will be making their way to North America to participate in the tournament, the largest African contingent in the tournament’s history.

Eyes everywhere are focused on the continent. While no African country has ever won a World Cup, Morocco made history in the 2022 edition when it reached the semifinals and finished in fourth place, a continental first. Morocco’s achievement was the culmination of nearly 90 years of African football slowly and persistently forcing its way onto the world stage.

This piece traces that journey through numbers, records, and moments.

From the Margins

Africa’s first appearance at a World Cup came in 1934, when Egypt became the continent’s sole representative.

What many saw as the start of an exciting new chapter turned out to be short-lived. The Confederation of African Football (CAF) boycotted the 1966 World Cup entirely after FIFA refused to guarantee Africa a dedicated qualifying spot; in a protest that was shaped by politics as much as football, the move cost African countries a World Cup appearance, the next of which wouldn’t be until 1970, in which FIFA guaranteed a spot for the continent that was eventually filled by Morocco, the Kingdom’s first appearance in the tournament.

It wouldn’t be until 1982 when two African teams regularly appeared at the same tournament. If the Hungry 30s was Africa’s rise, the Roaring 80s was the continent’s consolidation in the tournament, showcasing its talent on the global stage.

Countries such as Cameroon and Nigeria built reputations as formidable squads, while Morocco defied expectations in 1986 when it came out as the victor in a group with England, Poland, and Portugal.

Italia 90 served to be the turning point for the continent in the World Cup. Roger Milla, a former Cameroon player, was lured out of retirement at age 38 to the tournament, becoming a World Cup icon overnight. His four goals, iconic corner-flag celebrations, and Cameroon’s run to the quarterfinals, advancing past the likes of Argentina and Colombia, became a defining image of African football announcing itself to the world.

The Numbers Behind the Runs

While the early decades were defined by heavy group-stage exits, from 1998 onward, a tournament which saw five African participants, the continent’s collective win rate climbed steadily.

The 2002 World Cup stands as a high-water mark for continental performance: Senegal beat defending champion France in the opening match and eventually trailblazing to the quarter finals.

The 2022 tournament in Qatar began slowly for Africa. Four of the five participants—Cameroon, Ghana, Senegal, and Tunisia—were eliminated in the group stage. But Morocco’s run rewrote the continent’s story entirely. They kept clean sheets against Belgium, ended Spain on penalties, and beat a Cristiano Ronaldo-led Portugal to become the first African nation to reach the semifinals.

Their fourth-place finish put pressure on FIFA’s allocation decisions. For 2026, the result: 9 guaranteed African berths (up from 5), with a potential tenth through a play-off.

From the Past to the Future

The numbers tell a continental underdog story. From Egypt’s solitary debut in 1934, through the 1966 boycott, through Cameroon’s corner-flag celebrations and Ghana’s heartbreaking penalty miss in 2010, to Morocco’s extraordinary 2022 semifinal run–African football has earned its growing place on the world stage.

With ten now participating, the question isn’t whether African teams belong at the World Cup nor will it be if they perform well. The real question is whether one of them will finally win it.

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NORTH AFRICA: Algeria Commences Construction of its Pipeline Section

WHAT HAPPENED?

Algeria has begun construction on its 1,210 kilometer section of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, a 4,128 kilometer project transiting Nigerian gas through Niger to European markets, with capacity for up to 30 billion cubic meters annually.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Algeria supplies ~12% of EU gas imports. European interest has surged since Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion disrupted energy supplies, making the pipeline increasingly strategic for Algerian export revenues.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With the EU targeting an end to Russian gas imports by 2027, the pipeline’s importance grows. Morocco is separately pursuing a rival pipeline with Nigeria.

EAST AFRICA: Tanzania’s Hassan Makes the Case for Foreign Investment

WHAT HAPPENED?

Tanzanian President Hassan pitched Tanzania as a manufacturing and logistics hub at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, presenting the multibillion-dollar Bagamoyo Special Economic Zone to investors and President Putin.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Hassan has pursued investment from Western, Russian, Chinese, and Gulf sources. Gulf investment remains modest—Saudi Arabia and the UAE have combined investments of $841.8 million—but Bagamoyo could attract greater GCC spending.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Hassan will continue attending similar international forums to court capital, while Gulf investors watch closely to see whether Bagamoyo’s potential is realized.

CENTRAL AFRICA: US Launches New Sanctions on Commanders in Eastern DRC

WHAT HAPPENED?

The US sanctioned intelligence commanders John Imani Nzenze of M23 and Gustave Kubwayo of FDLR for human rights abuses and regional destabilisation in eastern DRC.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The sanctions target assets linked to both commanders. Given their groups’ roles in critical minerals supply chains, this raises risk and compliance concerns for Gulf actors operating in the region.

WHAT’S NEXT?

GCC mining companies must update risk assessments and compliance frameworks to align with the new US sanctions.

WEST AFRICA: Nigeria-UAE Trade Tops $4.8 Billion

WHAT HAPPENED?

UAE Minister of Foreign Trade Al Zeyoudi named Nigeria a cornerstone of Emirati investment in Africa in an interview with BusinessDay, with bilateral trade reaching $4.8 billion in 2025.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As the UAE expands beyond its traditional Northeast Africa focus, Nigeria has emerged as the linchpin of its West Africa strategy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With Nigeria launching new energy and infrastructure projects, commercial ties with the UAE are set to deepen across both sectors.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Botswana, UAE, and Oman Discuss De Beers Acquisition

WHAT HAPPENED?

Botswana is seeking a strategic stake in De Beers and is in talks with Emirati and Omani investors to finance the acquisition.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As the world’s second-largest diamond producer—with 29.5 million carats in 2025—increasing Botswana’s current 15% De Beers stake would significantly elevate its role in global diamond supply chains.

WHAT’S NEXT?

In exchange for financing, the UAE and Oman will likely seek increased diamond exports, particularly as their supplies face pressure amid the Iran conflict.

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NORTH AFRICA: Egypt Scores $355M Gas Contract in Oman

WHAT HAPPENED?

Enppi, an Egyptian gas company 97% owned by the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation, secured a $355 million deal with Oman. Awarded by Petroleum Development Oman, the contract provides Enppi with facility construction rights in Budour, located in the Dhofar region.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The contract marks another key advancement in Egypt’s energy sector this year and is part of a wider Omani effort to drive growth and job creation in 2026.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The project concludes within 26 months and aims to increase production at Budour from 1.4 million to 4.2 million standard cubic metres per day.

EAST AFRICA: Kenya Proposes 15% Capital Gains Tax on Foreign Investors

WHAT HAPPENED?

Kenya’s Finance Bill 2026 proposed a 15% capital gains tax on indirect share transfers, targeting offshore exit structures commonly used by foreign investors.

WHY IT MATTERS?

As East Africa’s largest economy, Kenya has attracted significant Gulf investment: Saudi Arabia and the UAE have invested a combined $990.5 million. The proposed tax could discourage future flows.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The GCC is unlikely to abandon Kenya entirely, but investment strategies focused on Nairobi will undergo reassessment to account for the proposed tax.

CENTRAL AFRICA: DRC Reclassifies Critical Minerals, 10% Royalty Rate

WHAT HAPPENED?

The DRC listed lithium, tantalum, niobium, tungsten, uranium, and rare earth elements as strategic minerals, resulting in a 10% royalty fee on their mining.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The DRC is the world’s largest cobalt producer and has attracted substantial Gulf investment. Abu Dhabi-based International Resources Holding (IRH), which holds a 56% stake in the Bisie tin mine, will likely need to revise its cost projections.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The higher royalty fee is unlikely to deter Gulf mining operations, especially as the race for critical minerals becomes increasingly geopolitical.

WEST AFRICA: Ghana Inflation Rose to 3.7% in May

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ghana’s inflation rose for the second consecutive month, from 3.4% in April to 3.7% in May, largely driven by Iran-driven higher energy prices.

WHY IT MATTERS?

With an IMF-projected GDP growth of 4.8%, Ghana has grown as an investment destination. Qatar signed a $1.5 billion agricultural deal last August, but inflationary pressures are likely to deter further investment short term.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf countries will watch closely as Ghana battles the Iran war’s economic pressures. If stability holds, renewed investment appetite is likely post-war.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Zambia Extends Debt Suspension on Copper Concentrates

WHAT HAPPENED?

Zambia extended its suspension of the 10% export duty on copper concentrates until September 30, allowing miners to export without the levy.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The exemption covers 271,742 metric tons. The largest allocation went to Mopani Copper Mines, jointly owned by Zambia and the UAE through IRH, which received a 100,000 ton duty-free quota.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Mopani’s allocation highlights the growing role of Gulf capital in Zambia’s mining sector. As Lusaka pursues investment reforms, favorable policies for Gulf actors are likely to follow.

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2026 has been both a blessing and a curse for Egypt, energy-wise. Like much of the world, Egypt’s gas and oil supply has become strained due to the Iran war. The country has lost key Kuwaiti supplies, now turning to its neighbor Libya as an alternative. Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly also reported that the country’s energy bill had increased by $1.1 billion since the start of the war.

Yet with this downturn has come also new energy momentum. The year has seen Egypt make a string of new gas discoveries. In April, Denise West, an offshore Mediterranean well, was uncovered, containing an estimated 2 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas. Similarly, the South Bostan-1X was found in the Western Desert, holding an estimated 330 billion cubic feet (BCF) of gas.

Egypt’s LNG terminals sitting on the Mediterranean coast, built to export Egyptian gas, are importing foreign molecules to keep the lights on. But is the country’s energy sector on a new trajectory towards independence?

From Boom to Blackout

Contrary to what’s claimed by skeptics, Egypt’s ongoing energy woes are largely a recent phenomenon. The late 1990s and early 2000s saw Cairo experience an offshore exploration boom, especially in the Nile Delta basin. New gas discoveries prompted new energy infrastructure, such as the Arab Gas Pipeline (AGP) in 2003 and the Damietta and Idku liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants.

Yet as the decade turned into the 2010s, so too did Egypt’s energy fortunes. The country’s skyrocketing population growth–currently hovering at just below 1.5%–significantly accelerated its domestic fuel demand, while the political instability of the January 25 revolution saw heightened insecurity in the Sinai Peninsula, leading to repeated sabotage of the AGP and other key gas infrastructure.

While the 2015 discovery of the supergiant Zohr gas field by Eni, which holds an estimated 30 TCF of gas, had restored hopes of a return to Egypt’s energy glory days, shortages continued into the 2020s as demand grew.

By 2024, national natural gas production had collapsed by over 17% year-on-year to 47.47 bcm, forcing a complete halt to summer LNG exports and a return to extensive electricity load-shedding across the country. Egypt’s efforts to become a regional, self-sufficient energy hub are thus meant to be a cushion for not only the present, but a guaranteed future.

Winning Without Gas

Egypt’s saving grace is infrastructure built for a different era. While the Idku and Damietta liquefaction terminals were constructed to export Egyptian gas to Europe and Asia, they remain the only operational LNG export facilities in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Neither Israel’s Leviathan field nor Cyprus’ Aphrodite and Cronos fields can liquefy gas on their own; Egypt’s infrastructure can, amplifying the Eastern Mediterranean’s gas reach and making it by default the region’s processing node.

Whatever happens underground, Egypt has one energy advantage that requires no drilling: sunlight. The country’s southern desert receives some of the highest solar irradiance levels on earth, typically around 2,000-3,200 kWh/m² of direct solar energy per year.

Coupled with its Red Sea and Gulf of Suez coastlines being among the region’s most consistent wind corridors, Egypt’s solar energy potential is vast and untapped. The Benban Solar Park in Aswan, one of the largest in the world, is an early demonstration of that.

The longer-term bet is turning that natural endowment into an export product. The most ambitious vehicle for that is GREGY, a planned subsea cable stretching roughly 950 kilometers from Egypt to Greece, designed to carry Egyptian renewable power directly into the European grid.

The obstacles to realizing this are real, and they’re hurdles Egyptian officials are actively working to overcome. Transmitting solar power generated in Aswan to the Mediterranean coast requires significant grid upgrades. Furthermore, with a population projection of over 161 million by 2050, renewable energy alone will likely not be enough to sustain rapidly rising demand.

The honest assessment is that this pathway is long, but one where Egypt can leverage its natural advantages to become an exporter on its own terms.

Wired for Ambition

Egypt’s energy woes are real, but the ambition they have created runs deeper. While re-emerging as a sovereign hydrocarbon exporter will be challenging in the near-term, its infrastructure has the potential to transform Eastern Mediterranean gas dynamics.

As gas companies and European countries turn to North Africa as a new reliable hub for all things energy, Cairo refuses to be left behind.

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NORTH AFRICA: Algeria’s $7 Billion Phosphate Project to Conclude in 2027

WHAT HAPPENED?

Algeria announced that its $7 billion Integrated Phosphate Project concludes next year, boosting annual output from 2.5 million to 10.5 million tonnes.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The initiative leverages Algeria’s hydrocarbon wealth as Europe seeks diverse energy suppliers. Algeria holds 3 billion tonnes of phosphate, ranking sixth-largest globally in 2024.

WHAT’S NEXT?

With 90% of phosphate used in food production, Gulf states investing heavily in agricultural assets for food security view this expansion as a prime investment pathway.

EAST AFRICA: Ethiopian Debt Restructuring Encounters Friction

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ethiopia’s attempt to restructure its defaulted $1 billion Eurobond stalled after a bondholder committee rejected the government’s revised proposal.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Ethiopia is a vital hub for East African Gulf investments, with the UAE alone deploying $2.3 billion. Restructuring woes will likely increase Ethiopia’s illiquidity risk scores for GCC decision-makers.

WHAT’S NEXT?

These struggles highlight the difficulty of balancing diverse creditors under the G20 Common Framework. Consequently, Gulf entities may favor faster bilateral lending over global frameworks.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Cameroon Receives Infrastructure Upgrade via Egyptian Dynasty

WHAT HAPPENED?

Egypt’s Elsewedy Electric partnered with Algerian Sonelgaz to expand into Central Africa, targeting renewable energy, logistics, and digital infrastructure in Cameroon.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Cameroon has long been dominated by French corporations and West African conglomerates. Elsewedy’s entrance disrupts this monopoly, opening Cameroon to broader foreign investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

This shift allows the Gulf to increase capital deployment. Elsewedy’s established GCC presence–operating six factories–acts as a strategic gateway for Gulf firms entering Cameroon.

WEST AFRICA: Nigerian Cooking Gas Prices Rise Despite Local Supply

WHAT HAPPENED?

Despite local refineries aiming to meet 100% of domestic demand, Nigerian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices spiked, reaching N2,000 ($1.46) per kilogram in key regions.

WHY IT MATTERS?

This highlights an energy paradox: while the Dangote Refinery boosts global trade standing, downstream distribution remains crippled by costly coastal shipping and degraded road networks.

WHAT’S NEXT?

This bottleneck represents a critical infrastructure gap. Investing in midstream logistical infrastructure to streamline gas transport could become a cornerstone of future GCC investments.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: EU Mobilizes $14 Billion Pledge for South African Minerals

WHAT HAPPENED?

The EU hosted an investment roadshow in South Africa to launch a €12 billion ($13.98 billion) investment package focused on critical minerals.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Facing competition with China, the EU is prioritizing critical mineral supply chains. Holding over $2.5 trillion in ore reserves, South Africa is the primary target.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Trade Minister Parks Tau emphasized that the objective is local industrial processing, not raw mineral export. The GCC can deepen ties by funding this required processing infrastructure.

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Last week, I appeared on Alhurra in an interview with journalist Rasha Ibrahim. Recently, China—long a reliable consumer of Gulf energy—has made a strategic shift: increasing its import of American gas and oil, as the Iran war continues to strain Gulf supply chains.

The deeper question to explore: is this just a temporary shift or long-term structural change in global energy trade dynamics? And how is it being perceived by policymakers and investors in the GCC?

I unpacked it all with Rasha: from China’s historic reliance on Iranian oil to the future of energy trade with the Gulf.

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NORTH AFRICA: Morocco Overtakes South Africa as Africa’s Top Industrial Economy

WHAT HAPPENED?

The AfDB’s Africa Industrialization Index 2025 placed Morocco ahead of South Africa as the continent’s leading industrial economy, scoring 0.8415 against 0.8396, reflecting a decade of industrial upgrading and export diversification.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Morocco’s position bridging Africa, Europe, and the Middle East has made it a credible manufacturing hub, increasingly cited as a top emerging market for continental investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf SMEs can leverage Morocco’s industrial base as a gateway into North African and Southern European markets.

EAST AFRICA: Kenyan Inflation Accelerates Due to Iran War

WHAT HAPPENED?

Kenya’s inflation climbed to 6.7% in May from 5.6% in April, a two-year high, as Iran conflict-driven energy prices pushed transport costs up 16.5%, food prices up 9.4%, and fuel-related housing costs up 3.4%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Kenya is a major Gulf investment destination, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE having collectively deployed $990.5 million. Elevated currency risk and weakening consumer spending now complicate the investment case.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf SMEs in retail and hospitality are likely to recalibrate market entry as consumers tighten spending.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Moody’s Raises Congo Fiscal Outlook

WHAT HAPPENED?

Moody’s upgraded Congo’s sovereign outlook to positive from stable, affirming its Caa2 rating, after the country raised nearly $2.5 billion across four international bond transactions between November 2025 and May 2026.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Oil and gas account for 40% of GDP and 90% of exports. Elevated crude prices and a $2 billion energy gateway initiative are strengthening Congo’s fiscal position.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf energy companies have growing partnership opportunities, though debt at 98% of GDP and weak cash management mean risks remain material.

WEST AFRICA: Dangote Refinery Emerges as World’s Largest Jet Fuel Exporter

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery became the world’s largest jet fuel exporter in April 2026, shipping 158,000 barrels per day—a 770% increase from 18,000 bpd in 2024—as Middle East disruptions rerouted global aviation fuel demand.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Lagos cargoes reach European ports in half the time of Gulf routes, challenging Gulf refiners’ market share. A $10 billion expansion and potential IPO signal long-term global ambitions.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The IPO offers Gulf investors early exposure to a fast-rising competitor, while Gulf refiners must reassess their European market logistics economics.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: South Africa Hikes Interest Rate

WHAT HAPPENED?

The SARB raised its repo rate 25 basis points to 7% on May 29, its first hike since 2023, after inflation jumped from 3.1% to 4.0% in April on Middle East-linked energy shocks, while cutting its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Despite a $479.96 billion GDP, South Africa faces compounding pressures from high unemployment, rising inflation, and tightening monetary conditions, deterring Gulf foreign investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf investors are recalibrating exposure as currency risks rise, with the SARB flagging up to three further hikes in worst-case scenarios.

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NORTH AFRICA: Libya and Turkey Strengthen Energy Ties

WHAT HAPPENED?

Libyan Oil and Gas Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq and Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar held bilateral talks at the 2026 Natural Resources Summit in Istanbul, focused on expanding investment partnerships between energy companies.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Turkey imports roughly 13% of its annual gas from Iran, and the ongoing crisis has pushed Ankara to seek alternatives. Given Turkey’s longstanding involvement in Libya, Tripoli is a natural fit.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Egypt and Gulf states are expected to likewise deepen ties with Libya as it seeks foreign investment to rebuild its energy infrastructure.

EAST AFRICA: Somalia and Turkey Sign Mining Agreement

WHAT HAPPENED?

Somali Energy Minister Dahir Shire Mohamed announced that Somalia is seeking to expand its partnership with Turkey into critical minerals, with discussions in Istanbul focused on updating a 2016 mining MoU.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Somalia holds roughly 10,200 tons of uranium. Turkey is eyeing this wealth to advance ties with Mogadishu and accelerate its energy transition.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Somalia-Somaliland dispute is becoming integral to the Turkey-Israel rivalry. Israel is likely to respond by expanding mining ties with Somaliland, which holds untapped lithium, chromium, and nickel.

CENTRAL AFRICA: Jinchuan Uncovers $145 Million Fraud in the DRC

WHAT HAPPENED?

Jinchuan Group International Resources discovered $145 million was siphoned from its DRC copper and cobalt operations; $137.4 million in payments to 12 suspect suppliers and $7.1 million transferred to a former employee’s personal bank account.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The DRC’s mineral wealth remains largely unregulated, enabling misconduct. As more mining companies expand there, stronger internal controls will be critical to sustaining investment.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Gulf states eyeing the DRC market will likely use this case as a basis for improved compliance frameworks in volatile environments.

WEST AFRICA: Turkey Bets on Nigerian Mines

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigeria and Turkey signed an MoU at the Natural Resources Summit on solid mineral development, with Nigeria set to leverage Turkish mining technology for exploration activities.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Nigeria has been positioning itself as a mining hub for Europe, and deepening ties with Turkey–which is expanding its African footprint–furthers that goal.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Mine insecurity remains a challenge; over 300 illegal operators have been arrested since Nigeria created its Mining Marshals. GCC countries will watch how Turkey navigates this to inform their own strategies.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Iranian War Weighs on South African Rand

WHAT HAPPENED?

The rand fell 0.3% to 16.3375 against the dollar after Secretary of State Marco Rubio admitted a deal with Tehran would “take a few days,” pushing Brent crude futures up 2%.

WHY IT MATTERS?

South Africa was on track for fiscal growth this year, but Iran-driven stress is threatening that trajectory and may deter foreign investment in the continent’s largest economy.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Reserve Bank announces its rate decision Thursday, with economists expecting a 25 basis point hike. Gulf investors will monitor how Pretoria manages the pressure to guide their own strategies.

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EGYPT: Western Desert Energy Reserves Discovered

WHAT HAPPENED?

Egypt announced the discovery of an oil and natural gas well in the Western Desert. The well has an estimated reserve of 330 billion cubic feet of gas and 10 million barrels of crude oil, marking it as the largest discovery in 15 years by the Agiba Petroleum Company.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Cairo has made significant strides to reduce its reliance on foreign energy supplies and become a net exporter once again. This recent discovery will help to accelerate that push, particularly as the Iran crisis strains Egypt’s oil import routes.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Further exploration is to be conducted, along with drilling of 101 oil and gas wells this year per a $5.7 billion government program. Gulf energy organizations are likely to find strategic partnership opportunities in Egypt as part of this investment.

ETHIOPIA: Addis Ababa Accuses Cairo of Blocking Its Red Sea Bid

WHAT HAPPENED?

In a statement issued last Thursday, the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry accused Egypt of making efforts to “obstruct” Addis Ababa’s attempts to gain Red Sea access, which the Ministry reiterated remains a top priority.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Ethiopia’s push to secure maritime reach to the Red Sea has elevated tensions between it and its neighbors, while Egypt remains concerned over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s implications for Cairo’s Nile water supply. The Iran war is heightening these tensions; Business Insider Africa reports of three vessels bound for Ethiopia holding 120,000 metric tonnes of diesel being stranded in the Gulf, deepening the government’s desire for maritime access.

WHAT’S NEXT?

If the Iran war concludes amid continuing peace talks between Tehran and Washington, GCC states can leverage their deep political and investment ties with both Ethiopia and Egypt to secure a longstanding settlement.

UGANDA: Central Bank Reduces Liquidity As Iran War Ensues

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Bank of Uganda (BoU) raised its Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) from 9.5% to 11%, as the ongoing global energy crisis pressures the country’s currency. The CRR represents a segment of customer deposits commercial banks hold in reserve with the central bank.

WHY IT MATTERS?

According to EHS Africa Logistics, Uganda’s real GDP is forecast to grow at a 6.6% CAGR from 2024 to 2029, making it a top growing emerging market. Yet as a landlocked country, it remains fiscally vulnerable to maritime trade shocks, impeding its growth.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Iran war is likely to push Kampala to accelerate its energy transition and establish new trade maritime routes, opening up investment opportunities for the Gulf.

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NIGERIA: Dangote Refinery Gears Up for $100 Million IPO

WHAT HAPPENED?

Nigerian tycoon and Chairman of First HoldCo Plc, Femi Otedola, announced he will invest $100 million in the upcoming initial public offering (IPO) of the Dangote Oil Refinery in Nigeria.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The Dangote Refinery is among Africa’s most significant industrial projects and a key venture toward resource self-sufficiency. Its IPO and mounting investor interest from figures like Otedola reflect the refinery’s potential as a financial magnet for foreign investment in West Africa.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Otedola’s investment will be allocated ahead of the IPO via private placement. With the refinery valued at close to $50 billion, Gulf investors may see value in contributing to the project as Northwest Africa positions itself as an alternative energy supplier to Europe.

ETHIOPIA: Dangote Secures Pipeline Deal With Djibouti

WHAT HAPPENED?

Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH) and the Dangote Group gained approval for a pipeline project connecting Ethiopia to Djibouti. The first phase will construct a pipeline for refined crude oil connecting the port of Djibouti to Dawale in southeastern Ethiopia. The second phase will extend a pipeline for natural gas and crude oil through Ethiopia’s Somali region.

WHY IT MATTERS?

Ethiopia is the world’s most populous landlocked country, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has made gaining maritime access a central economic priority, putting the country at odds with its neighbors. Dangote’s pipeline project offers new trade routes while potentially easing tensions between Addis Ababa and its bordering states.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Ethiopia has become a cornerstone of the GCC’s deepening ties with East Africa, with the UAE investing $2.3 billion in the country in recent years. Dangote’s growing presence in the region could pave the way for collaboration between the Dangote Group and GCC sovereign wealth funds.

TANZANIA: Rare Earth Deposits Discovered in Collaboration with China

WHAT HAPPENED?

Tanzania announced newly discovered rare earth mineral deposits in its southern Ludewa District of Njombe Region. The deposit contains neodymium and praseodymium–critical minerals used in technologies ranging from smartphones to artificial intelligence–explored jointly by the Tanzanian government and Chinese firm Hongji Mining Co. Ltd.

WHY IT MATTERS?

The discovery elevates Tanzania’s strategic importance in the global race for critical minerals and is likely to draw greater mining investment toward Tanzania and East Africa broadly.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Tanzania has received relatively modest Gulf investment, having received a total of $736.8 million from the UAE. As GCC engagement in African mining grows, investors and policymakers in Abu Dhabi and across the Gulf may eye closer collaboration with Tanzania moving forward.

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